While attention is focused on the US-Israeli war against Iran, Gaza is facing increasingly complex conditions marked by a freeze in political efforts aimed at implementing the terms of a ceasefire reached in October last year.
Hamas and other Palestinian factions had hoped to move more quickly to the second phase of the so-called Trump plan, but the fallout from the war with Iran has clouded that path.
Since the ceasefire agreement was reached, Israel has delayed several key steps. These include preventing the “National Committee for the Administration of Gaza” from entering the enclave to assume its governmental duties, disputing its slogan and its connection to the Palestinian Authority, and pressing for the disarmament of Palestinian factions. The war against Iran has added further disruption.
Limited contact with mediators
Sources from Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that there has been only limited and partial communication with mediators regarding the situation in Gaza.
One source said that the Qatari and Turkish mediators in particular were “more preoccupied and engaged with the war crisis,” while Hamas remains primarily in contact with the Egyptian mediator, who is also involved in regional developments but continues to follow the Palestinian file.
Hamas sources confirmed that since the start of the war against Iran, there has been no new communication between the movement’s leadership and the US administration, either directly or through mediators.
They also agreed that “nothing official has been presented to the movement regarding the issue of weapons.”
The sources did not hide their concerns about the impact of the ongoing war on the situation in Gaza, especially as Israel has sought to take advantage of it by closing crossings that had been reopened at Washington’s request following mediation efforts.
They warned that a prolonged war could have a broader impact on the Gaza issue as a whole, particularly as negotiations related to Iran are likely to follow, at a time when the Palestinian file may be sidelined for a longer period.
Condemnation in one direction
Since the war on Iran began, Hamas and other Palestinian factions have condemned the attacks on Tehran and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while remaining officially silent, even in individual comments, regarding attacks targeting Gulf countries.
Hamas leaders have also avoided answering some journalists’ questions about their position on the attacks, particularly as some of them continue to live in Gulf states, especially Qatar, which has faced a series of Iranian strikes.
Sources from Hamas inside and outside Gaza told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement currently prefers “to remain silent about what is happening” and does not wish to take a position.
What is happening has left its leadership “uncertain about adopting a stance that could later be held against it,” the sources said, adding: “That is why the movement chose to condemn only the aggression against Iran.”
One source acknowledged that the movement’s leadership “cannot condemn Iran’s attacks on Gulf states while Tehran says it is targeting only US bases in the region. At the same time, it does not want to endorse them because Gulf states view them as a threat to their security.”
The source added that the movement is keen to maintain relations with all parties and does not want to involve itself in the political dispute unfolding amid the ongoing military conflict in the region.
Internal divisions and heightened security
The divergence has also been reflected among field-level and grassroots members of Hamas inside Gaza, where views on the attacks have been divided.
However, at the level of Palestinian factions’ media outlets, “directives consistently emphasize strong support for the Iranian narrative in the current war,” according to a Hamas source inside Gaza.
Platforms linked to Hamas have repeatedly circulated speeches by its late political bureau chief, Yahya Sinwar, who said in a speech before Oct. 7, 2023, that “a regional war will occur,” at a time when he was counting on the intervention of parties belonging to the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
There has also been a noticeable focus on prayers for Iran’s victory in mosques — whether those still standing or temporary prayer spaces set up in tents in areas controlled by Hamas and other Palestinian factions in Gaza.
Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that Hamas leadership has taken strict security measures amid the wave of attacks across the region, fearing a surprise Israeli strike targeting its leaders.
Such an attack occurred early Thursday when an apartment in the Beddawi refugee camp in Lebanon was struck, killing Wasim al-Ali, a prominent operative in the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. His brother, also a commander in the group, was killed in a similar attack about a year ago.
