Pakistan’s Mango Exports Shrink as Middle East War Impacts Lingerhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5286631-pakistan%E2%80%99s-mango-exports-shrink-middle-east-war-impacts-linger
Pakistan’s Mango Exports Shrink as Middle East War Impacts Linger
This photograph taken on June 4, 2026 shows a worker checking the quality of mangoes at an orchard in Hyderabad City, in Pakistan's Sindh province. (AFP)
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Pakistan’s Mango Exports Shrink as Middle East War Impacts Linger
This photograph taken on June 4, 2026 shows a worker checking the quality of mangoes at an orchard in Hyderabad City, in Pakistan's Sindh province. (AFP)
Beneath the scorching sun in Pakistan's southern mango belt, laborers balance on tree branches, working at a swift pace to throw the freshly picked fruit into sacks held ready by farmhands waiting below.
Though mango season is well underway, far less of the fruit will be bound for the lucrative export market than usual, with Pakistan's agriculturally dependent economy caught in the crosshairs of the Middle East crisis that its government has helped mediate.
An initial deal between the warring sides announced by Pakistan this week has come too late for this mango season, which began in June in southern Sindh province.
Mango traders told AFP they expect export sales to fall at least 30 percent this year due to dampened demand in key markets, including the Gulf, and soaring shipping costs.
Adding to the financial pain, local households struggling with a spike in inflation emanating from the regional crisis are holding off on buying the fruit, depressing domestic sales.
In the mango-growing heartland of Tando Allahyar, Mohammad Shakeel manages orchards that grow the golden-yellow Sindhri variety, named after the province where it flourishes and famous for its rich flavor and juicy pulp.
He feared his business would fall short of generating the income needed to cover the upfront cost of the orchard leases, noting some had abandoned their contracts entirely.
"So many losses have been incurred, the contractors have even left their advance money," Shakeel said.
This photograph taken on June 5, 2026 shows workers packing mangoes at a market in Karachi. (AFP)
- King of fruits -
Known in South Asia as the "king of fruits", Pakistan grows over two dozen varieties of mango that normally earn around $110 million in international sales a year -- making the country the world's fourth-largest exporter.
The challenges sparked by the Middle East war underscore the geopolitical vulnerability of Pakistan's economy, heavily dependent on an agriculture sector already struggling with the impacts of climate change.
"Almost 80 percent of mango export is to the Gulf region, Iran and Afghanistan," Waheed Ahmed, Chief Patron of the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporter Association, told AFP, noting conflict had gripped all of those countries in recent months.
Total mango exports were expected to shrink by around 30,000 tons since last season to 80,000 tons this year, Ahmed said.
"The border to Afghanistan is closed, there is war in Iran... there is war in the entire Middle East."
Though he welcomed a preliminary agreement to halt fighting between the United States and Iran this week, the outlook looks shaky and it has come too late for this year's roughly three-month-long mango season.
"The main challenges still remain," he said.
Conflict with neighboring Afghanistan has also led to a stall in trade, with hundreds of trucks laden with goods sitting stuck at closed border crossings for months.
Competing blockades around the Strait of Hormuz maritime oil trade route pushed up energy prices, sending shipping costs soaring.
Ahmed estimated that shipping a container of 25 tons of mangoes cost around $1,400 last year.
"The same freight has increased to $6,000 to $7,000 this year," he said.
This photograph taken on June 4, 2026 shows an aerial view of a mango farm in Tando Allahyar district, in Pakistan's Sindh province. (AFP)
- 'Bread or mangoes'? -
Any hopes that the glut of mangoes into local markets could help offset lost export earnings were dashed by households' struggles with soaring prices for many goods, driven up during the Middle East war.
In a bustling outdoor market in Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, customer Muhammad Ashad eyes the surprisingly cheap mangoes on offer -- now around 200 Pakistani rupees ($0.72) per kilogram, half last year's price.
"Mangoes are very cheap this time compared to the last few years... because our export has stopped," he said.
"I am seeing everywhere that there are very good mangoes, but people are still not able to buy them," he said.
Pakistan's inflation rate leapt to 10 percent in the three months after the conflict began, from 5.5 percent in the July-February period, according to a government survey.
Shakeel, from the fruit export association, confirmed the hit to local sales.
"In the local market the price is low. But not everyone can afford to buy mangoes. Look at the state of the country: expenses are rising... income is low. Should they buy their bread first or our mangoes?"
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Sudan has entered a new phase of economic turmoil after its currency, the pound, fell sharply against foreign currencies, with the dollar trading above 9,000 pounds in some parallel-market transactions in recent days.
The pound later temporarily recovered some of its losses, but severe volatility disrupted markets, prompting some traders to suspend sales and close their shops.
Exchange-rate movements illustrate the scale of the deterioration. The dollar, which traded at about 4,400 pounds on the parallel market in June, surged to more than 9,000 pounds at the height of this month’s September turmoil.
The number of pounds needed to buy one dollar has nearly doubled in about three months.
Rates quoted by several banks remained far below those on the parallel market, reflecting a widening gap between the official banking rate and the price at which traders obtain foreign currency outside the banking system.
After a limited improvement on Friday, the dollar again rose above 8,000 pounds on Saturday amid a shortage of US currency in banks.
Sovereign Council Chairman and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan directly linked the economic crisis to the war.
“The battle has taken many forms,” Burhan said after Friday prayers in Khartoum’s Burri district. He described the economic crisis, rising prices and scarcity of resources as “part of this battle” and pledged that Sudan would emerge “victorious, just as we drove the rebellion out of Khartoum and other cities.”
Exchange-rate, market and gold-production figures suggest that the “economic battle” is more complicated than controlling currency speculators. It involves the wartime economy, shortages of foreign currency, declining production, foreign-trade imbalances and gold smuggling.
Prices surge
The pound’s depreciation is having a direct effect on people’s lives.
During a tour of markets in Khartoum and Wad Madani on Sept. 18, local broadcaster Radio Tamazuj reported that the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar had risen to 470,000 pounds from 380,000 pounds, an increase of about 24%.
A sack of flour climbed to 120,000 pounds from 80,000 pounds, an increase of about 50%.
The broadcaster said most of the shops visited during the tour were closed. Traders had stopped selling because prices were changing so rapidly that they could not determine how much it would cost to replace the goods they sold.
Closures spread to other cities. Local reports from Atbara in River Nile state said that a growing number of shops had closed and traders were refusing to sell. Reports from Duwaim said about three-quarters of shops had closed, citing local traders.
In Tamboul in Gezira state, activists circulated a local account describing the city’s market as almost at a standstill, with shops closed and goods scarce.
The account put the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar at 600,000 pounds, a sack of sorghum at 500,000 pounds, a 36-pound container of cooking oil at 400,000 pounds and a sack of flour at 150,000 pounds.
The prices could not be independently verified, nor could it be confirmed whether the closures affected the entire market.
The crisis is reflected in the experience of grocery store owner Ibrahim Idris, who said his capital was no longer sufficient to stock the range and quantities of goods he had previously sold.
Idris said the price of a 36-pound container of cooking oil had risen to nearly 350,000 pounds from about 170,000 pounds over the past month, more than doubling.
Customers were buying smaller quantities, he said, while increasing numbers were asking to purchase goods on credit.
Nahla Khalifa, a homemaker from Omdurman, previously told Asharq Al-Awsat that her family had often gone without meat, milk and vegetables, while obtaining medication for her husband, who has diabetes, had become increasingly difficult.
Osman al-Jundi, a supervisor of community kitchens, or takayas, in Khartoum, told Asharq Al-Awsat days before the sharp currency decline that falling donations, rising prices and the pound’s depreciation had forced several free kitchens to close.
Only two kitchens in his area were still operating daily, he said, even as the number of people in need continued to grow. They included displaced people from Kordofan, as well as children, women, older people and people with disabilities.
The Sudanese pound continues its slide to a record low against the dollar (Reuters)
Gold production declines
The sharpest contradiction emerges in Sudan’s gold sector.
According to data from the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, recorded gold production exceeded 70.15 metric tons in 2025. That included about 58.38 tons from traditional mining, roughly 5.68 tons from mining-waste processing companies and about 5.96 tons from concession companies.
However, the amount of gold entering official export channels was far below recorded production.
Data attributed to the Central Bank of Sudan showed that about 14.7 tons of gold, worth nearly $1.54 billion, were exported in 2025. In a separate estimate, the finance minister said about 20 tons had entered official channels.
The difference cannot be treated entirely as smuggled gold because of existing stockpiles, domestic consumption and trade, as well as differences in how the data are calculated. It nevertheless reveals a substantial gap between recorded production and the amount appearing in official exports.
An official at the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company previously estimated that about 48% of the country’s 2024 gold production had been smuggled, depriving the banking system of a significant source of foreign currency.
Gold is also intertwined with the war. A study by the Chatham House think tank said both sides in the conflict had benefited from the gold economy and its production and trading networks, although through different methods and in different areas of influence.
The study linked gold-sector revenues to the warring parties’ ability to finance operations and obtain resources, weapons and supplies.
That does not mean all proceeds from official gold exports are used for military spending. The state also uses foreign currency to finance imports of fuel, wheat and other goods and necessities.
A further contradiction has emerged within the gold sector itself.
Twenty-three mining companies have threatened to begin gradually suspending production on Sept. 30 and halt it entirely on Oct. 1 in protest against the Central Bank of Sudan’s mechanism for purchasing gold.
The companies say they produce about 17% of the country’s gold and that the central bank’s purchase price does not cover rising fuel, transportation, wage and operating costs caused by the pound’s depreciation.
The distortions extend beyond the gold market.
While the dollar rose above 9,000 pounds in some transactions in government-controlled areas, it traded at about 4,600 pounds in cash in Nyala. Its price through transfers using the Bankak banking application reached about 6,500 pounds.
The cash price of the dollar in Nyala was, therefore, at roughly the same time, about half the rate recorded in some markets in government-controlled territory.
That does not mean the economy in areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is stronger.
Experts and traders attribute much of the difference to the shortage of banknotes, or cash liquidity, in Darfur, as well as different trade routes and foreign-currency flows. Markets in western Sudan are also linked to Chad, Libya and South Sudan.
The difference within Nyala itself — 4,600 pounds in cash versus 6,500 pounds via bank transfer — illustrates the distortions created by the liquidity crisis.
Seeking solutions
As the pound’s decline accelerated, the National Committee for Economic Management, headed by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, formed a committee led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim to address the exchange-rate crisis.
The announced measures include increasing agricultural, livestock and mining production; encouraging manufacturing and exports; reducing imports; regulating the gold trade and combating smuggling; requiring exporters to repatriate export proceeds; and confronting currency speculation and foreign-exchange trading outside official channels.
But the figures present those measures with a clear test.
The dollar has risen above 9,000 pounds despite previous interventions. Gold production has exceeded 70 tons, yet far smaller quantities have appeared in official exports. Companies producing 17% of the country’s gold are threatening to halt operations, while shops have closed because traders can no longer set stable prices for their goods.
The contradiction between Burhan’s pledge to prevail in the “economic battle” and the economic data is stark: Sudan produces more than 70 tons of gold annually but suffers from a shortage of foreign currency.
The dollar trades above 9,000 pounds in one market and at about 4,600 in another, while flour prices in some markets rose by 50% during the latest bout of volatility.
For Sudanese people, the question is therefore no longer merely when the dollar will fall. It is how much real value the pound retains — and how much food and medicine it will be able to buy the following day.
IMF: AI Could Boost EU Growth But Increase Economic Strainshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5320339-imf-ai-could-boost-eu-growth-increase-economic-strains
AI Artificial intelligence words, miniature of robot and EU flag are seen in this illustration taken December 21, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
IMF: AI Could Boost EU Growth But Increase Economic Strains
AI Artificial intelligence words, miniature of robot and EU flag are seen in this illustration taken December 21, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Artificial intelligence could lift European productivity by about 1% over five years, but risks widening inequality, straining power networks and increasing dependence on foreign technology unless governments deepen economic integration, an International Monetary Fund paper said.
The background note, prepared for an informal meeting of European Union finance ministers in Dublin on September 18-19, said the benefits and costs of AI were likely to be distributed unevenly across countries, regions and workers, according to Reuters.
It said completing the EU single market would help spread AI adoption and its gains more evenly across the 27-nation bloc.
The paper echoes concerns raised by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and the European Commission that Europe's fragmented capital, labor and energy markets are holding back investment and innovation.
The IMF estimated that around 60% of workers in advanced European economies are employed in occupations highly exposed to AI. While some could become more productive through AI tools, others faced displacement as routine tasks become automated, it said, particularly in jobs where AI is more likely to replace labor than complement it.
The paper said Europe's data centers already consume roughly 3% of the continent's electricity and that demand would rise sharply as AI use expands.
Major technology hubs such as Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris and Dublin are among the areas most exposed, with data-center clusters already putting pressure on local power networks.
To address that, the EU should invest in cross-border grid infrastructure and deepen integration of the European energy market, the IMF said.
The paper also warned that Europe risks developing another strategic dependency because the US and China dominate the development of AI models.
It said Europe would need significant investment in its own AI industry to avoid becoming reliant on foreign technology.
AI's gains are also likely to be unevenly distributed across and within the EU, the paper said. More advanced economies are expected to benefit disproportionately because they are better prepared for and more exposed to the technology.
Bolivia Approves $1.9 Billion IMF Deal, Eliminates Diesel Subsidieshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5320092-bolivia-approves-19-billion-imf-deal-eliminates-diesel-subsidies
Bolivia Approves $1.9 Billion IMF Deal, Eliminates Diesel Subsidies
A person is counting dollars in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 July 2026. (EPA)
Bolivian lawmakers approved a $1.9 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund on Friday, delivering the conservative government a key victory in its efforts to ease the country's deep economic crisis as unions threatened renewed protests.
Just hours after Congress approved the loan, President Rodrigo Paz announced an immediate end to subsidies for the diesel powering Bolivia’s trucks, buses and tractors — a step toward meeting IMF demands. Gasoline, used mainly in private cars, would remain subsidized for now, though Paz had already scaled back that support in recent months, The Associated Press said.
The Senate ratified the IMF agreement a day after the lower house approved it, clearing the final legislative hurdle for the three-year financing program aimed at replenishing dwindling foreign reserves and stabilizing the ailing economy marked by high inflation and weak growth. The IMF first announced the staff-level agreement in July after months of negotiations with Paz’s market-friendly government, which took power last year after nearly two decades of socialist rule as part of a wave of new Latin American leaders allied with the Trump administration.
The program still requires approval from the IMF’s executive board before funds can be disbursed. Economy Minister Christian Morales told senators that the deal would give other lenders, including the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, greater confidence in the government and help it secure about $5 billion in additional financing.
But the assistance is conditioned on tough economic measures, including the elimination of fuel subsidies, that threaten to reignite unrest in Bolivia, where weeks of road blockades in June and July paralyzed much of the South American nation as demonstrators demanded Paz’s resignation. Congress on Thursday extended for another 90 days a state of emergency that Paz had declared to clear roads during the protests. It allows for military intervention and the suspension of some civil liberties.
The Bolivian Workers’ Central, the country’s main labor federation, and other unions have voiced fierce opposition to the IMF loan, warning that the government spending cuts required under the deal would drive up living costs and deepen hardship for struggling families.
Although Paz’s Christian Democratic Party lacks a majority in Congress, the centrist and right-wing lawmakers that dominate both chambers rallied behind the deal. The Movement Toward Socialism, the party that dominated Bolivian politics after the former coca growers’ union leader Evo Morales won the presidency in 2005, now holds just two of the 130 seats in the lower house and none in the 36-member Senate.
Declining natural gas exports have deprived Bolivia of dollars needed to import gasoline and diesel, contributing to chronic fuel shortages that began in 2023 and have persisted under Paz. The Iran war has pushed up global fuel costs, making fuel subsidies an even greater burden on public finances.
“No one can buy something expensive and sell it cheap,” Paz said in his late-night declaration that diesel in Bolivia would now be sold at international prices.
To cushion the blow, he announced about $79 million in cash assistance for 2.9 million Bolivians, along with loans on preferential terms for truckers, small businesses and producers facing higher diesel costs. He pledged to redirect subsidy spending toward schools, hospitals and roads.
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