In recent days, Hezbollah has sharply escalated its confrontation with the Lebanese authorities, particularly the presidency, ahead of President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington. One of the group's lawmakers openly declared that "the bridges with the authorities have been severed and the consequences will not be favorable."
At the same time, however, Hezbollah has continued to avoid direct confrontation with the Lebanese Army's leadership, despite previously warning that it would treat any party attempting to disarm it by force in the same way it treats the Israeli military.
As Lebanese, American, and Israeli discussions continue over implementing the proposed "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon, a plan that would place those areas under the control of the Lebanese Army while removing both Israeli forces and Hezbollah's military presence, the group's recent escalation appears to signal that it is unwilling to cooperate with the proposal. Hezbollah had previously strongly criticized the framework agreement and its provisions.
No Decision to Use Force
According to military sources, there is "no political or military-security decision to implement the pilot zones by force." The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that "the issue must be resolved through dialogue and politics, not by placing the Lebanese Army in direct confrontation with Hezbollah, as the consequences would be catastrophic on every level."
After Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah used the parliamentary podium earlier this week to launch a sharp attack on President Joseph Aoun, accusing him of "becoming a political actor who deepens divisions among the Lebanese instead of serving as president and a symbol of national unity," fellow Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said on Friday that "the problem with this government has become serious, very serious. The bridges with it have been severed, the possibility of reaching an understanding no longer exists, and the consequences will not be favorable."
Escalation in the Streets?
Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, attributed Hezbollah's escalating rhetoric toward the authorities to what he described as the existential challenges the group currently faces "after finding itself on the chopping block and after the decision was made to eliminate its military wing." He added that "it is not unlikely that Hezbollah will escalate in the streets in the coming days and weeks, despite President Aoun's warning that taking to the streets is a red line."
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Khashan said the available indications suggest that "Hezbollah is preparing for confrontation and that the next phase will be extremely difficult and dangerous." He added that concerns over divisions within the Lebanese Army if it were forced into a confrontation with Hezbollah are well founded and that the consequences of such a decision should not be underestimated.
According to Khashan, the army commander is fully aware of those risks and is acting accordingly. President Aoun, himself a product of the military establishment, also understands this reality well and is familiar with the army's internal composition.
Khashan believes Hezbollah is currently in a weakened position. However, he argues that strong communal solidarity has led most Lebanese Shiites to rally behind the group, believing that if Hezbollah were ultimately defeated, the gains achieved by the Shiite community over recent decades would come to an end. In their view, they want their community to remain the dominant force in the country.
A Return to Assassinations?
Ali Al-Amin, political writer and editor-in-chief of the Janoubia news website, argues that Hezbollah "is not operating as a Lebanese political party concerned with the national considerations that shape the president's positions on negotiations, Lebanon's foreign relations, or the country's security. Hezbollah today is, in effect, part of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and its position toward President Joseph Aoun reflects Iran's position toward him."
Asked whether this rhetoric could foreshadow action by Hezbollah against domestic opponents, whether the government or rival political forces, Al-Amin said such a scenario "cannot be ruled out." He suggested it could take various forms, "including assassinations or efforts to stir unrest in the streets." However, he argued that none of these options would ultimately benefit Hezbollah.
"The more Hezbollah attacks President Aoun, the more Lebanese rally around him and the more isolated the party becomes. Any attempt by Hezbollah to provoke internal confrontation would harm everyone, but there is no doubt that Hezbollah itself would be the first to pay the price."
Hezbollah Wants the Army to Remain Neutral
Responding to another question, Al-Amin argued that Hezbollah's efforts to keep the Lebanese Army out of the confrontation are "far from innocent." He said the party has sought to amplify praise for the army as a military institution loved by all, on the condition that it satisfies all political factions by remaining neutral.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Amin said Hezbollah wants the army to remain, as it has always preferred, "a force that is effectively sidelined except when its role serves the party's own interests." He pointed to Hezbollah's refusal to hand over its positions to the army when requested, citing the case of Ali al-Taher Hill north of the Litani River. He also recalled the explosion that killed six Lebanese soldiers as they attempted to take control of one of Hezbollah's tunnels in the Tyre district following the November ceasefire agreement.
Al-Amin added that Hezbollah also seeks to exploit any disagreement between the government and the army, "even if merely superficial," in order to deepen and magnify those divisions.
