Yemen FM: Houthis and Iran Have a Relationship of 'Mutual Instrumentalization'

 Yemeni FM Afrah al-Zouba (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Yemeni FM Afrah al-Zouba (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Yemen FM: Houthis and Iran Have a Relationship of 'Mutual Instrumentalization'

 Yemeni FM Afrah al-Zouba (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Yemeni FM Afrah al-Zouba (Asharq Al-Awsat)

What kind of relationship binds the Houthis to Iran? Afrah al-Zouba, the first woman to head Yemen’s Foreign Ministry, has a term for it: “mutual instrumentalization.”

“I use the term because it describes the relationship more accurately,” al-Zouba told Asharq Al-Awsat in her first interview since taking on the challenging portfolio.

The Houthis, she said, “are not merely a tool with no domestic project of their own. At the same time, what they have become cannot be separated from their deep and accumulated relationship with Iran.”

She went further.

The group “is not simply an arm,” al-Zouba said. “It is a threat in its own right, whose interests intersect with the Iranian project wherever that helps expand its influence and impose a fait accompli.”

“We are dealing with a terrorist group that has an ideological and political project at home, built on sheer violence and the myth of discriminatory and racist dynastic entitlement toward Yemeni society,” she said.

The group, she added, “believes it has an absolute right to power and wealth, and to harness the forces and segments of the population to serve its project and establish an extremely closed and isolationist theocratic system hostile to citizenship, freedoms, and human dignity.”

Explaining ‘mutual instrumentalization’

Al-Zouba said the relationship works both ways.

“The Houthis benefit from Iran to strengthen their project at home, while Iran benefits from the Houthis and Yemen’s strategic location as a tool of influence and pressure in the region,” she said.

But that mutual reliance, she said, is no longer limited to Iran.

“The terrorist Houthi movement has expanded their cooperation and exchange of interests with terrorist elements and organizations, smuggling networks linked to the Yemeni arena, terrorist groups in the Horn of Africa, and armed groups in Iraq,” she said.

That, she added, reflects “an increasingly intertwined web of interests, tools and smuggling routes, compounding the cross-border threat.”

The danger, in al-Zouba’s view, lies in attempts to turn Yemen and its strategic location into a platform for threatening neighboring countries, ships, ports, and maritime routes.

She cited attacks reaching Mokha port and efforts to turn the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden into “arenas for pressure and coercion.”

Such conduct, she said, “drags Yemen into conflicts that do not serve the interests of its people and threatens the security and stability of the region and international navigation.”

One widening escalation

In recent days, Houthi attacks have widened from government forces in Marib and Hadramout to camps for displaced people and civilian sites in Marib and Mokha.

The attacks have also reached Najran in Saudi Arabia, while threats against ships and maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab have resurfaced.

Asked whether she viewed the developments as separate incidents or as part of a single escalation, al-Zouba was unequivocal.

“I do not treat them as separate incidents,” she said.

“When missiles and drones are used against state forces, then the attacks extend to civilians and displaced people, vital civilian and economic facilities and Saudi Arabia, while coinciding with threats to ships and maritime routes, then we are looking at one pattern expanding geographically and applying pressure on several fronts at the same time.”

Al-Zouba noted that the escalation came while political efforts were still under way, led by Saudi efforts to return to a political track.

“There are no domestic reasons or developments that explain this escalation,” she said.

Instead, she said, the regional context pointed to “clear Iranian escalation.”

She cited Iran’s dispatch of two aircraft to Sanaa and Hodeidah airports without the Yemeni government’s approval, as well as what she described as repeated Iranian attempts to use the Red Sea “as an arena for pressure and for harming international trade and the global economy.”

The latest attacks, al-Zouba said, should therefore be read “in their broader context, not as isolated or passing events.”

‘The state’s sovereign right’

How will the government respond? And does the military response announced by the armed forces, along with the National Defense Council’s move to raise readiness, signal a shift from containment to a new military course?

Al-Zouba said the principle was straightforward.

“The political and legal principle is clear: the state has a sovereign and legitimate right to defend its citizens, forces and institutions, and to take the necessary and proportionate measures to deter attacks.”

On military decisions, she said the National Defense Council “remains in continuous session to deal with the situation.”

The council, she said, has put restoring state institutions and protecting sovereignty at the top of its priorities and instructed the armed forces to respond to sources of fire and confront Houthi attacks.

That, she said, “is part of the state’s responsibility to protect its borders, ports and citizens and prevent them from being subjected to repeated coercion.”

Still, al-Zouba said the government’s fundamental position had not changed.

Its goal, she said, remains “ending the coup, restoring state institutions and returning to the path pursued by the state, leading to a genuine and sustainable political solution.”

She rejected the idea that deterrence and negotiations were incompatible.

“I see no contradiction between the state protecting itself and a political solution,” she said.

“On the contrary, a sustainable solution cannot be reached from a position that allows attacks to continue at no cost. We want a political solution, but under a state capable of protecting its citizens, sovereignty and institutions.”

Peace backed by deterrence

After 12 years of truces, negotiations and repeated attempts at de-escalation, is a political solution still possible? And did containing the Houthis encourage further escalation?

Al-Zouba said hope remained for ending “this nightmare that Yemenis have been living through for 12 years in a way that spares their blood and protects their country’s resources.”

She pointed to a long political track stretching from the National Dialogue Conference to the Kuwait talks, the Stockholm Agreement and later de-escalation initiatives.

The government pursued those efforts, she said, “in search of a way out that would restore stability to the country.”

But its experience with the Houthis, she said, revealed a recurring pattern dating back to the six wars.

“At more than one stage, whenever the group found itself under pressure, it moved toward de-escalation, only to rebuild its strength, enhance its capabilities and return to the offensive,” she said.

That experience, she added, showed the limits of containment.

“A policy of containment, when not coupled with consequences and a clear cost for violating commitments, may be understood as permission to do more.”

Al-Zouba said the government and the Yemeni people “yearn to be rid of this suffering.”

She pointed to deprivation, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and forced recruitment in Houthi-controlled areas, as well as attacks on oil facilities and sources of revenue in government-held areas.

Her formula was simple.

“We want a genuine peace backed by tools of pressure and deterrence, enforcement mechanisms and accountability,” she said.

“A de-escalation that leads to a solution, not an opportunity to reposition and rearm.”

Red Sea: Protecting ships is not enough

On the Red Sea, al-Zouba said Yemen’s location gives it a major responsibility in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden.

Those waterways, she said, “are not merely a Yemeni or regional matter. They are arteries for trade, energy and supply chains around the world.”

The Yemeni government, she said, views the Saudi-launched “multinational defensive maritime coalition” as “an important step.”

It shifts maritime security, she said, “from fragmented responses to institutional cooperation” encompassing ship protection, information-sharing, maritime awareness, training and stronger capabilities to confront threats.

But she said ship protection alone cannot provide a lasting answer.

“Protecting a ship at sea alone cannot be enough indefinitely if the sources of the threat on land and along the coast remain outside state authority.”

For al-Zouba, “the sustainable part of the solution” is to enable the Yemeni government to extend its authority over its coasts, ports and territorial waters.

That also means strengthening the coast guard, naval forces, port security and anti-smuggling capabilities.

“Historically, Yemen was a point of transit, trade and connection with the world,” she said.

“It is unfair for its location today to be reduced to the image of a source of threat, instead of for Yemen to once again become a bridge for trade and stability.”

What Yemen wants from the world

Al-Zouba said the international community has developed a better understanding of Houthi conduct.

The government, she said, appreciates recent international positions, including those from the UN Security Council, states and regional and international organizations.

She highlighted statements affirming Yemen’s sovereignty, the government’s right to manage its airspace and ports of entry, and opposition to attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping.

But political statements, she said, are not enough.

“The value of a political position becomes clear when it is translated into implementation.”

Al-Zouba said the government wants “effective implementation of UN Security Council resolutions, the sanctions regime and the arms embargo.”

It also wants routes used to smuggle missiles, drones, dual-use components and technical expertise shut down, and networks that finance or facilitate those activities held accountable.

She also called for stronger Yemeni state capabilities, particularly the coast guard, specialized agencies and port security.

“We are not asking the world to fight on our behalf,” she said.

What Yemen wants, she said, is not to be asked to surrender its responsibility to protect its citizens, resources and sovereignty “while the cost of violations remains almost nonexistent.”

“Every violation that carries no cost encourages the next one.”

The government’s demands go beyond security.

Al-Zouba renewed a request she said Yemen has been making for five years: to “correct the way international support and aid for the Yemeni people are delivered.”

The goal, she said, is to move away from “periodic support that merely treats the symptoms of the humanitarian crisis” and instead address its root causes by supporting state institutions and strengthening their ability to function.

Yemenis are not bargaining chips

Beyond missiles and politics, al-Zouba turned to the humanitarian toll.

Millions of Yemenis, she said, are living in extremely harsh conditions and “must not be turned into instruments of pressure or hostages in the hands of the Houthi militia in political and military calculations.”

“When a displaced person who was already forced to leave his home is targeted in Marib, or a UN employee working to serve people is detained, or children’s vaccines and aid are disrupted, then we are dealing with a humanitarian cost that goes beyond the political approach.”

Al-Zouba accused the Houthis of controlling resources, obstructing humanitarian work, detaining staff, disrupting vaccine deliveries and turning those issues into tools of pressure against civilians.

“Humanitarian issues are rights, not bargaining chips or tools of blackmail,” she said.

But she also tied any lasting solution to the restoration of the state.

“Aid can ease the pain, but it cannot replace a state that provides education, health services and salaries and protects its citizens.”

Three priorities for the Foreign Ministry

Away from the war, Asharq Al-Awsat asked al-Zouba what she wanted Yemenis to see from the Foreign Ministry in the first stage of her tenure.

She set out three priorities.

The first is “providing Yemeni diplomacy with the resources it needs to perform its role and keep pace with the state’s political action.”

“The Foreign Ministry is the main channel of communication with the world,” she said.

“Its staff at home and abroad must therefore be able to convey state policy and defend its interests.”

The second priority is serving Yemenis abroad.

Al-Zouba pointed to the country’s large expatriate communities, saying they are far more than a consular matter.

“They are not merely a consular file. They are part of the national economy and everyday ambassadors for Yemen, and their remittances amount to billions of dollars annually, supporting millions of families.”

The third priority is “improving the ministry’s institutional structure and completing reforms begun during the previous period.”

Al-Zouba paid tribute to Dr. Shaya al-Zindani, who led the ministry in the previous period.

Diplomatic work, she said, “is by nature cumulative, with the efforts of successive officeholders complementing one another.”

Her goal is a more unified ministry.

“I want a ministry that operates as one system, with professional staff, a unified message and clear mechanisms for evaluation and accountability, so that it reflects the state’s foreign policy rather than disparate individual judgments.”

Diplomats’ salaries and appointments

On delayed salaries for diplomats, conditions at diplomatic missions and appointments, al-Zouba praised Yemen’s diplomatic corps.

It had worked, she said, “throughout these years under extremely difficult conditions and remained one of the state’s fronts abroad.”

“It is unfair to speak of effective diplomacy without paying attention to the professional and living conditions of those carrying this responsibility.”

Al-Zouba said she was working with the prime minister and the political leadership to “untangle accumulated problems and explore possible solutions to improve the financial situation of staff and diplomatic missions.”

But she offered no timetable.

“This issue is tied to the state’s available resources, so I will not give dates or promises that cannot be guaranteed,” she said.

“But I can confirm that it is at the top of our agenda.”

Appointments, she said, are “a normal process in any diplomatic service” but require “careful study and deliberation” under current conditions.

She laid out four criteria: “competence, need, performance and the national interest.”

Appointments, she added, must comply with laws and regulations, avoid unfairly excluding eligible personnel, and reflect the needs of the ministry and its missions.

‘Yemen is an opportunity, not a problem’

Al-Zouba wants to change how Yemen presents itself to the world.

The war and the humanitarian and economic crises are undeniable challenges, she said, “but Yemen remains an opportunity and a promising country for our brothers and friends.”

She pointed to what the country has to offer: “a strategic location, a young population, resources and potential, vital maritime routes, and a long history of trade and engagement.”

“Diplomacy should not go to the world only to explain what we need,” she said, “but also what Yemen can offer as a partner.”

Al-Zouba said she wants relations with Yemen’s brothers and friends to move “from managing the crisis to building partnerships in maritime security, trade, energy, investment, recovery and reconstruction, and capacity-building.”

At the forefront, she said, is Yemen’s partnership with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, “by virtue of geography, shared interests and common security,” alongside balanced relations with other friendly states.

Her message is that a stronger Yemeni state benefits the wider region.

“The stronger and more stable the Yemeni state is, the more Yemen becomes an added value to regional security rather than a burden on it,” she said.

“We are not talking about Yemen as a permanent problem, but as an opportunity and an anchor for stability and cooperation.”

‘Yemen is bigger than these difficult years’

Asked what message she would send to Yemenis at home and abroad, al-Zouba said: “Yemen is bigger than these difficult years.”

“We are an ancient Arab state, and a people historically known for trade, openness, engagement and respect for the societies in which Yemenis live.”

At home, she said, the priority is to “restore the idea of the state before anything else.”

That means a state that “protects the citizen, monopolizes arms and sovereign decision-making, rests on the rule of law and equal citizenship, and redirects resources toward serving the people.”

Yemenis’ political differences, she said, “should not lead them to disagree over these fundamental principles.”

Her message abroad was equally direct.

“We want to restore Yemen’s natural place as a sovereign state with an ancient civilization, and for our diplomacy to reflect the image of a people capable of building, engaging and contributing to the stability of its surroundings,” she said, “rather than for Yemen to remain captive to the image of crisis and its repercussions.”



Palestinian Authority Arrests Brokers Over Alleged Sale of Jericho Homes to Settlers

Settlers stand on the roof of one of eight homes they said they purchased in Jericho last Thursday (AP). 
Settlers stand on the roof of one of eight homes they said they purchased in Jericho last Thursday (AP). 
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Palestinian Authority Arrests Brokers Over Alleged Sale of Jericho Homes to Settlers

Settlers stand on the roof of one of eight homes they said they purchased in Jericho last Thursday (AP). 
Settlers stand on the roof of one of eight homes they said they purchased in Jericho last Thursday (AP). 

The Palestinian Authority has arrested several property and land brokers suspected of facilitating the transfer of homes in Jericho to Israeli settlers, amid fears the move could mark the beginning of what has been described as a “Jewish invasion” of one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities.

Palestinian security forces spokesman Maj. Gen. Anwar Rajab said several suspects had been detained in connection with homes seized by settlers in Al-Duyuk al-Tahta, west of Jericho.

Security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the brokers were suspected of facilitating the transfer of the properties as part of a plan to enable settlers to take control of an entire neighborhood. The suspects were remanded in custody for 15 days pending investigation.

The case emerged Wednesday when 20 Jewish families entered eight homes they claimed to have legally purchased through the Nachala settlement movement, with the involvement of the Binyamin Regional Council, in an operation described as secret.

The houses are located in Area C of the occupied West Bank, near the archaeological site known as the Hasmonean Palaces.

Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the purchases had been arranged in secrecy, with only a small number of people involved. Even some participants’ wives were reportedly surprised by the move.

Settlers who arrived at the site said they were reestablishing Jewish settlement in Jericho, which Jews regard as their gateway into Palestine.

The takeover sparked an uproar in the Palestinian territories, raising questions about how the properties had been transferred, whether the transactions were illegal, particularly as some of the homes stand on government-owned land, and where the Palestinian Authority had been during the process.

The site lies in Al-Duyuk al-Tahta, within Area C, but very close to Area A, which is under Palestinian administration. Establishing a settlement outpost there would therefore carry serious geographical and political implications.

The Palestinian Authority responded immediately by forming a crisis committee and launching an arrest campaign.

Palestinian Security Forces Investigate Property Transfers

In a statement, Palestinian security forces said investigations into the settlers’ seizure of homes in the Al-Duyuk area of Jericho governorate were ongoing, under close supervision by the relevant authorities and the Public Prosecution.

They said legal measures would be taken against anyone found to be involved, in accordance with established procedures.

The security forces warned citizens against dealing with documents, papers or information circulated on social media about the case or similar incidents, saying such material could be intended to sow confusion and disrupt investigations.

They urged residents and media outlets to rely exclusively on official sources and avoid rumors or unreliable information, some of which was intended to incite discord and disputes within Palestinian society.

The statement reaffirmed the security services’ commitment to protecting citizens and their property and maintaining security and public order. It said any official developments would be announced through authorized channels.

The security forces stressed that they would not allow the case to become a source of rumors or tolerate attempts to undermine public security, threaten property, mislead public opinion or exploit the investigation to spread disorder.

The statement followed the widespread circulation of forged documents seeking to implicate a Palestinian Authority figure, triggering heated debate on social media.

Before the security forces issued their statement, the Palestinian Land Authority rejected claims that preliminary sale transactions, official documents or powers of attorney existed in connection with the properties.

It said such practices formed part of Israeli occupation policies aimed at seizing more land and forcibly displacing residents.

The authority stressed that any action taken by a third party concerning state property constituted a violation of state ownership. It said no allocation, lease or other transaction had been authorized for Plot 14.

According to land records predating 1967, one of the two plots on which the buildings stand belongs to the state, while the other belongs to its historical owners.

The Land Authority maintained that the occupation could not confer property rights and that any measures taken under its authority were null and void, carrying no legal effect.

Israeli Commander Accused of Prior Knowledge

As Palestinian authorities continued their arrests and investigations, a separate controversy erupted in Israel.

Although the Israeli military initially said the operation had not been coordinated with it, Israeli security sources familiar with the matter told Haaretz that Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, head of the military’s Central Command, had known in advance about plans by settlers and the Nachala movement to take over Palestinian homes west of Jericho.

According to the sources, Bluth met the settlers a day before they entered the properties and asked them to keep the operation secret and not inform field officers until the takeover was complete.

The sources said he had spoken with senior settler leaders involved in the operation, asked them not to disclose his prior knowledge and “wished them success.”

The allegations gained further attention following remarks by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who also accused Bluth of assisting settlers involved in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank.

The Israeli military dismissed the accusations as “offensive and baseless.”

Since the settlers entered the homes, the army has had to divert three combat platoons to protect them after the settlers attacked Bedouin residents in a nearby area and forced them to leave.

Israel’s Walla news website reported Saturday that the entry of Israelis into homes near Jericho had prompted two families from the local Bedouin community to abandon their temporary shelters.

The report said the army had contacted the families and offered assistance to prevent their departure, but both decided to leave.

The Israeli military said it had tried unsuccessfully to persuade the families to stay and would therefore work to prevent Jewish settlers from taking over the two vacated homes.

Senior Israeli military officials warned of the risk of further escalation.


Sudan’s RSF Claims New Gains in Blue Nile Fighting

Sudanese refugees walk at the Iridimi refugee camp, northwest of Iriba, in Wadi Fira province, eastern Chad, November 27, 2025. (Reuters)
Sudanese refugees walk at the Iridimi refugee camp, northwest of Iriba, in Wadi Fira province, eastern Chad, November 27, 2025. (Reuters)
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Sudan’s RSF Claims New Gains in Blue Nile Fighting

Sudanese refugees walk at the Iridimi refugee camp, northwest of Iriba, in Wadi Fira province, eastern Chad, November 27, 2025. (Reuters)
Sudanese refugees walk at the Iridimi refugee camp, northwest of Iriba, in Wadi Fira province, eastern Chad, November 27, 2025. (Reuters)

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied fighters said they had captured the town of Maqja in the southeastern Blue Nile region, following clashes that saw them gain control of several other areas.

The Tasis alliance, which includes the RSF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), said its forces had seized Maqja after taking control of Sali, Al-Keili and Bakori.

The alliance’s claims could not be independently verified, although the Blue Nile regional government acknowledged changes in troop deployments and territorial control.

Videos released Friday by Tasis fighters showed members of the RSF, SPLM-N and Al-Bishi Forces, a Blue Nile paramilitary group affiliated with the RSF, inside Maqja.

The Sudanese army neither confirmed nor denied losing the town. However, pro-army social media platforms said no troops had been stationed there when alliance forces entered, claiming the army had withdrawn from the area about three months earlier.

The platforms played down the significance of the announced capture, describing the videos circulated by the RSF-SPLM-N alliance as part of the information war.

Maqja has witnessed fighting between the two sides before. On September 20, Anadolu Agency quoting a local official, reported that the army and allied forces had repelled an RSF-SPLM-N attack on Maqja and Mada.

Maqja lies in the Bau locality in southwestern Blue Nile, connected by local roads to Kurmuk, Al-Damazin and the Ingessana Hills. It lies some 90 kilometers from Al-Damazin, the regional capital.

The RSF and SPLM-N had captured the strategic Sali area in Kurmuk following clashes with government forces in late October and early November.

Army, RSF claim separate drone shootdowns

Meanwhile, the Sudanese army and RSF separately announced that they had shot down drones in the West Kordofan and Blue Nile states.

In a statement Saturday, the army said its air defenses had downed a hostile FH-95 drone that morning over the Ayal Bakhit area of West Kordofan.

The army did not identify the drone’s operator or provide further details.

The RSF, meanwhile, claimed to have shot down a Bayraktar Akinci drone belonging to the Sudanese army while it was flying over the Blue Nile front.

Neither incident could be independently verified. Images of wreckage released by the RSF did not establish the drone’s type or when and where it had been brought down.

Regional government acknowledges military changes

In its first official response to the latest developments, the Blue Nile regional government issued a statement seeking to reassure residents, urging them to rely on official information and refrain from circulating unverified reports about the fall of towns or the collapse of military positions.

The government acknowledged military and security developments in parts of the region, saying military operations required troop movements and changes in deployment and territorial control.

It said it was monitoring the situation in coordination with military and security authorities and working to protect civilians and maintain essential services.

The statement did not specifically deny that RSF and SPLM-N forces had entered Maqja, nor did it clarify where army units had been deployed before the latest developments.

The Blue Nile region lies in southeastern Sudan, bordering Ethiopia and South Sudan. Al-Damazin hosts the headquarters of the Sudanese army’s Fourth Infantry Division.

The SPLM-N, led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, has long maintained positions in the southern part of the region, particularly near the borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia.


Lebanon Fears New War as Hezbollah Retains Say Over Conflict

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun inspects military units deployed in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, South Lebanon (File photo: Lebanese Presidency).
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun inspects military units deployed in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, South Lebanon (File photo: Lebanese Presidency).
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Lebanon Fears New War as Hezbollah Retains Say Over Conflict

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun inspects military units deployed in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, South Lebanon (File photo: Lebanese Presidency).
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun inspects military units deployed in Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, South Lebanon (File photo: Lebanese Presidency).

Lebanon faces mounting political and security uncertainty amid fears it could be drawn into a new regional war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran, with the government unable to guarantee that Hezbollah would stay out of the fighting.

The prospect has alarmed Lebanese citizens, who fear renewed destruction and displacement, as well as officials who have limited control over how events might unfold. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have repeatedly warned of the dangers posed by the absence of clear assurances about Hezbollah’s intentions.

Lebanese State Faces Dilemma Over Lack of Guarantees

Although the Lebanese government has taken unprecedented decisions aimed at placing authority over war and peace exclusively in its hands, with broad support from Western and Arab countries, a major source of uncertainty remains in its inability to guarantee that Hezbollah will comply with any state decision to keep Lebanon out of a regional confrontation.

Despite officials’ insistence that such decisions must rest solely with legitimate state institutions, Hezbollah’s continued control over its own military decisions and the close connection between its strategic calculations and developments in Iran leave the state facing a complex situation.

A ministerial source said domestic contacts have continued among the various parties but have yet to produce tangible results, apart from statements suggesting that Hezbollah would not enter any future conflict.

The source cautioned, however, that these assurances have not been accompanied by substantive evidence to justify confidence, making vigilance essential at this stage.

The source stressed that the Lebanese state is not weak and that its position remains firm, having adopted clear decisions in this regard. The problem, however, is that the party directly involved in decisions on war is neither cooperating with the state nor responding to its policies, acting instead according to calculations and priorities that differ from those of official institutions.

“The state does not want war or destruction, but the calculations of the other side — Hezbollah — are different,” the source said.

Amid regional uncertainty following the Israeli and US elections, the source said the core problem also lies in the nature of Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran.

Tehran, the source explained, does not treat the Lebanese state as the official authority on this issue. Instead, it communicates with the group it supports, without offering clear guarantees that Hezbollah will stay out of any future confrontation.

The source also pointed to recent remarks attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei concerning the “unity of fronts,” describing them as a signal that cannot be ignored when assessing the possibilities ahead.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaks in Aita al-Shaab during a previous visit to southern Lebanon. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Israeli Threats, US Warnings Heighten Concerns

Developments on the ground have done little to ease fears, with Israeli attacks continuing in southern Lebanon alongside repeated threats.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has threatened to expand military operations and target additional areas of Lebanon if Hezbollah joins any confrontation involving Iran, while Israeli media have discussed possible military scenarios extending beyond the area south of the Litani River.

Israel’s Maariv newspaper published information about possible plans involving an advance toward Tyre, Sidon and Nabatieh, as well as a naval blockade of the ports of Beirut and Tripoli should the conflict widen.

These remain scenarios reported in the media, with no official confirmation that they will be implemented.

The warnings are not limited to Israel.

The ministerial source reiterated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had conveyed clear warnings to President Joseph Aoun that Hezbollah’s involvement in any future war would invalidate previous guarantees, potentially exposing Lebanon to far-reaching consequences that could prove impossible to contain.

Regarding the suspension of Lebanese-Israeli talks, the source expressed hope that negotiations would resume and produce results.

The source added, however, that the suspension was not unexpected, as it had been clear for some time that the talks would not take place during the US and Israeli election periods.

Lebanon Faces a Serious Predicament

Dr. Rodrigue Abi Khalil, head of the Political Science Department at the Lebanese University, said the uncertainty confronting the Lebanese state stems fundamentally from its lack of the means to implement its commitments, despite the unprecedented decisions taken by the government to assert its authority and extend state sovereignty.

Abi Khalil told Asharq Al-Awsat that, despite their significance, these decisions run up against the reality that Hezbollah’s decisions remain tied to Iran, preventing the state from controlling the course of a confrontation or keeping Lebanon from being drawn into one.

“Government decisions, however important, are not sufficient for the international community unless they are translated into practical measures on the ground, particularly since Hezbollah will not relinquish this advantage without a political price,” he said.

Abi Khalil argued that Lebanon’s domestic political situation is closely linked to regional developments, leaving the country in a serious predicament as the region approaches a pivotal phase that could see war resume with greater intensity amid US and Israeli efforts to bring about strategic changes in the region.

He said this reality explains the Lebanese state’s uncertainty and apprehension, as a significant part of the decision affecting Lebanon’s fate depends on the outcome of the potential confrontation.

“This connection has been clearly reflected in the course of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, which have yet to produce decisive results,” he added.

Abi Khalil concluded that “Lebanon is approaching the prospect of another confrontation without having adequately prepared for it, while the state waits to see what outside powers decide rather than controlling the course of events itself.”