The US-Iranian confrontation is a long-running saga whose chapters keep unfolding amid fire, threats, and promises. American aircraft carriers are moving through the waters of the Mediterranean and the Arabian Gulf. Following the storms of airstrikes, missiles, and explosive drones, as well as the missiles Iran has launched at the Arab Gulf states, Jordan, and Israel, political activity is picking up and mediators from some Arab Gulf states and Pakistan are moving into action.
In the United States, there is a president who makes a profession of military, political, and financial combat. In Iran, there is a complex political formation that brings together armed revolutionaries and clerics who carry on their heads the heat of what the sacred past has sown, while the bazaar remains present in the course of everyday life. It is a vast arena of conflict, bringing its iron strength and the tools of confrontation into the air, the water, and across the land.
Politics and diplomacy between the two sides may involve interpreters, but they are often absent, leaving the deaf shouting at one another. Yet the world holds its breath as it follows what it sees and hears, because across that vast, noisy, bloody arena, the banners of war and peace are moving, along with the prices of the energy, food, medicine, and other necessities on which human beings depend.
The United States and Iran began early on to grow what history and politics had planted between them, and hostility and confrontation became the ears of grain that never withered and were never reaped by sickles. From the first days after the Islamic Revolution ended the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the fire of hostility between the two countries was ignited, and the passing years piled heaps of wood onto it. The seizure by young Iranian revolutionaries of dozens of American diplomats working at the US diplomatic mission in Tehran contributed to former US President Jimmy Carter's defeat in the presidential election by his rival, Ronald Reagan.
Today, Iran is crossing the Atlantic once again, hovering around America's electoral ballot boxes, as the issue of an American-Iranian war has become part of the US congressional midterm elections. Iran's nuclear program was the trigger that set the war between the two sides in motion. During the first term of former US President Barack Obama, the two countries managed to reach a bilateral agreement after lengthy negotiations, restraining the momentum toward confrontation. President Donald Trump canceled the agreement because it was the achievement of his rival, Obama, who was absent but still present. President Trump could have proposed amending the agreement, but instead he canceled it.
Any political crisis is exactly like an illness, whether internal or external. It has symptoms that reveal it. The crisis between Iran and America has a fundamental cause as well as symptoms. Iran's nuclear program is at the heart of the crisis, and it set several political symptoms in motion, namely Iran's external arms in Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine, and Iraq, the latest of which has been the Strait of Hormuz. The discussion and treatment are now focused on the Strait of Hormuz, while attention has receded from the fundamental driver of the crisis, Iran's nuclear program.
Last June, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding concerning the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing freedom of international commercial navigation through it. Article Five of the memorandum states: "Upon signing the memorandum, Iran undertakes to make its utmost efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, from the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and vice versa. Passage would be free of charges for 60 days." Passage is to be free of charges for 60 days.
Iran is holding talks with the Sultanate of Oman, with the participation of the states bordering the Gulf, to determine the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in accordance with international law and the rights of coastal states. But the dispute between the two sides began with their differing interpretations of what was stated in this article of the memorandum of understanding. Iran is raising the ceiling of its demands, as well as its understanding and interpretation of what is being agreed upon, and this is rooted in the composition of Iran's leadership. The Strait of Hormuz has become the illness after having been one of its symptoms.
The United States has now moved toward another option. Instead of war with iron and fire, it has declared a global economic war on Iran and imposed a suffocating siege on all of its financial capabilities, leaving it unable to export, import, or conduct banking transactions with any country in the world.
Iran has been living under severe financial distress for years. Its currency has collapsed in value against the dollar, while its oil exports, which account for 80 percent of its national income, have declined.
US sanctions will affect any country, institution, or individual that deals with the government in Tehran. This devastating global economic war against Iran will have enormous repercussions inside Iran, while at the same time unleashing powerful storms across the world. Politically influential and economically powerful countries maintain extensive economic relations with Iran.
China imports huge quantities of Iranian oil at low prices and has announced that it will not comply with the punitive measures imposed by the United States against Iran or against anyone who continues to deal with it. China sees the measures taken by the United States as going beyond economic measures against Iran. Rather, it views them as a project of global American political dominance under an economic cover.
In Iran, political voices have begun to grow louder, speaking about the scale of the suffering endured by citizens. Following the announcement of the new US measures, the voices of hardliners began to subside. Last Wednesday, a spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that a return to the memorandum of understanding was possible. Before that, a formula had been proposed for coordination between the Sultanate of Oman and Iran to organize navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. All indications point to the possibility of moving toward a realistic course to avoid confrontation between Iran and the United States.
When will tomorrow come within the sight of those who await it?
