Yes, the question above is precise. It does not ask about the likelihood of a war breaking out, but of the war expanding, because Israel is waging a war on Lebanon, and it has been since the Gaza war began. The question now is: will it evolve to become a fully-fledged conflict?
Israel has not stopped launching operations in Lebanon; it attacks the south on a daily basis and continues to assassinate Hezbollah leaders and fighters. It has already killed 500. They are not typical assassinations, but the result of a clear plan to liquidate the party’s leadership.
About a week ago, an extensive Israeli operation against Lebanon seemed inevitable, and then significant American efforts were made to stop it. Now the same signs have resurfaced, so will Netanyahu expand the war?
Forget about what you, the analysts, or I think. Let us examine the developments with a cool head. Since the Gaza war began, Netanyahu's strategy has had clear objectives, the most important of which is exploiting the crisis to extend his time in power and impose himself as a "historic" leader of Israel.
His effort to exploit every front, incident, or development, not just to return to the pre-Oslo status quo, but to take things even further by changing maps and taking the Palestinian cause back to square one. I warned about this in an article I had written soon after the crisis began, and I constantly reiterate this point because it is key to understanding Netanyahu's strategy.
The maps of Gaza have changed and continue to change, and there is still no talk of the day after. Instead, Gaza is being turned into a military zone. We have seen Netanyahu move on the West Bank, which is on the brink of imploding, meaning that the Palestinians’ achievements, regardless of their significance, could implode as well. What remains of Oslo, and more, will be destroyed with it.
Today, one of the sticking points in the truce and ceasefire negotiations is Netanyahu's insistence on maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor. The Western media has begun adopting Netanyahu's perspective, which violates the Camp David Accords with Egypt.
After the incident at the King Hussein Bridge on the Jordanian border, Netanyahu moved to inspect the Jordan Valley area on the Palestinian-Jordanian border. This move created a storm of Arab condemnation led by Saudi Arabia, which considered it a provocation aimed at expanding Israeli settlements.
His provocation in the Jordan Valley also threatens the 1994 Jordanian-Israeli Wadi Araba Agreement, undermines the Palestinian state project, and proves that Netanyahu's strategy is to exploit every crisis to change things and take the cause back to square one by striking down all agreements that have been concluded in the region.
Accordingly, what makes Lebanon, or its south, different in this strategy? Nothing; thus, it is clear that Netanyahu will not miss the opportunity for a broader war with Hezbollah now; as previously mentioned, it serves his strategic goals.
A war with Hezbollah now would change the status quo and alter maps while also escalating Israel’s confrontation with Iran, which is what Netanyahu wants. That is his goal, especially since he recently boasted that he was the one to thwart Iran's nuclear project.
Netanyahu is waiting for the new American president. If it is Harris, she will have to deal with the reality he has created. If it is Trump, Netanyahu can continue with his strategy. Thus, the wise people of Lebanon should be careful. However, the question here is: are there wise people in Lebanon who understand this?
