The Brink of an Expansive War and the Absence of Strategic Containment

When we teach military strategy to university students, we do not solely focus on questions of superiority and military actions using tanks, airplanes, and missiles. Strategic containment is often crucial for effectiveness and achieving results. Here, I ask observers, specialists, and decision-makers to remember Kendo (the way of the sword), a practice that clearly reflects the theory of strategic containment:
“One day, an exhausted man carrying a weapon entered a small town looking for food and work. He found nothing to eat or drink.
Suddenly, he found himself facing a man carrying a gleaming sword. The man told him to meet the next day for a duel in the center of the town with everyone present.
The visitor inquired about this man, and he was told that the man was a fierce and powerful warrior- a strong and experienced sword fighter champion who had fought in wars and repelled every attack. Thus, the man went to the town's martial arts teacher. The teacher ordered him to pray the prayer of death, but he would not manage to learn the advanced combat skills needed to face the warrior in time. He also asked him to consult a clergyman to seek wisdom, and to remain motionless, close his eyes, recite his usual prayer during the duel, moving his lips without raising his voice...
The visitor understood nothing and assumed that he was fated to die a quick death. He was enraged by this advice, but the clergyman told him: "This is the only way to stay alive."
When the duel began, the warrior was astonished by the visitor's reaction. He saw a man with his eyes closed, sitting motionless, muttering incomprehensible prayers. The warrior, a thoughtful man, began to contemplate what this meant: the visitor must either be a fool, suicidal, or extremely powerful.
(If he is a fool, defeating him would not make me stronger or enhance my reputation. If he is suicidal, it would be foolish to help him. And if he is very strong, he could destroy me.)
As a result, the visitor settled permanently and comfortably in the small town and lived a long life."
This meaningful story, which is taken from Sun Tzu's philosophy on the art of war, illustrates the genius of the strategy of not engaging in direct confrontation and seeking containment to ensure minimal cost with guaranteed results.
The men who planned the Al-Aqsa Flood attack did not have this strategic genius. They believed that it would free the Palestinian prisoners languishing in Israeli prisons and modest Israeli military incursions and allow Hamas to make public and secret agreements that favor Hamas. If none of this happened, they thought that this war would spark a broader regional war, with everyone in the Resistance Axis adopting it as their own war and entering the fray. They believed Iran would be compelled to intervene, prompting international powers to rush in and pour water on the raging fire.
Based on these assumptions, Hamas thought it would become a domestic and regional actor that could overturn the international rules, compel enemies, and achieve unrivaled power. Hezbollah lacked this strategic genius, finding itself engulfed in a sea of tragedy. It began losing its cadres and leaders, its resilience, and its domestic and regional influence, especially after Israeli intelligence’s (Mossad) “pager attack.”
The Mossad planted small explosives inside thousands of pagers that Hezbollah had imported months earlier. This incident highlights the strength of Israeli intelligence and the weakness of Hezbollah's and Iran's surveillance and preemptive capabilities. This vulnerability allowed for precise targeting, such as the assassination of Hezbollah General Fuad Shukr in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself, and the elimination of the Radwan Force (Hezbollah's elite forces) leadership as they held a meeting in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
This strategic precision terrifies Iran, which diligently and constantly reevaluates taking military actions against Israel. It accounts for the military superiority of the US and Israel, the potential destruction of its weapons and aircraft, and the infiltration of its systems since they know that the US and Israel possess fifth-generation weapons...
In light of these facts, strategic containment- through the story that introduced our article and the parallels with some actors- could have yielded positive results. These calamities would not have occurred today, the region would not be moving further and further away from peace and security. Its problems would not be aggravating. We are facing difficult crises, a web of militias, anxious armies, border-crossing drones, fifth-generation technologies, and disparate forces and alliances.