The sun rises again over Gaza and Lebanon, but this time without the dominance of Hezbollah and Hamas, whether we see them as resistance movements or extensions of Iranian influence. A new and a different scene is about to unfold, demanding a Palestinian, Lebanese, Arab, and international effort to minimize human and political losses and to prevent further collapses.
Following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and the destruction of Hamas’ power, Israel finds itself in a stronger position than before, largely due to mismanagement of the crisis earlier in the year. Israel is no longer pressured to negotiate hostage exchanges or accept the compromises that were discussed during Cairo negotiations over the administration of Gaza. Proposals from Paris are now off the table, and no one can dictate to Israel how it will manage border crossings, including the key “Philadelphi” corridor.
With the death of Hassan Nasrallah and most of Hezbollah’s leadership, Lebanon too is in a different position. Israel is no longer content with just the demands of Resolution 1701, which required the cessation of rocket fire and the disarmament of Hezbollah fighters in exchange for Israeli restraint.
The Lebanese army can take full responsibility for protecting the borders and dismantling Hezbollah’s military role. Without this, Israel will continue its military operations until the spring, aiming to eliminate every last fighter in Lebanon. This could lead to the complete destruction of Lebanon and the end of Hezbollah’s political and military presence.
The war is not over yet. A new confrontation is looming, potentially on a third front in Syria and a fourth with Iran. After its success in destroying Hamas and most of Hezbollah’s capabilities, Israel fears that these threats could resurface unless it cuts off Iran’s influence stretching from Iraq through Syria.
Although not officially stated, Israel’s current goal seems to be driving Iran out of Syria, as reflected in its actions on the ground. For example, Israel has cleared mines on the Golan Heights and called for the removal of international forces, indicating plans for further military operations. Although Syria has avoided getting involved in the Hamas and Hezbollah conflicts, not giving Israel any excuse to target it, Netanyahu’s government is determined to eliminate surrounding Iranian threats, which include Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian bases in Syria.
Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in early April was a clear message: Iran must pack its bags and leave Syria. If Iran withdraws peacefully, it will be a gain for the Syrian government, which no longer needs Iran’s presence as it did during the civil war. Now, Iran’s presence has become a burden on Syria.
Netanyahu may seem reckless, firing in all directions, but in reality, he is following a well-structured plan with a clear objective. Few expected him to be capable of this—dismantling the major regional Iranian threats surrounding Israel. It is anticipated that he will strike Iran this week, aiming for more than just Yahya Sinwar. If the attack happens, Iran will face two choices: accept Israel’s conditions and curb the activities of its external Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or face an even more dangerous conflict, both for Iran and the entire region.
