The Ceasefire… the Conditions for It to Hold

Over the course of this conflict, one of our era’s longest, wars were temporarily or permanently stopped through ceasefire agreements and arrangements. They were often concluded through foreign intervention crowned by a Security Council resolution.
The most recent ceasefire agreement was concluded just yesterday, and it went into force in the early hours of Wednesday, November 27, 2024. It was the result of an agreement between the patrons, Iran as the patron of Hezbollah and America as the patron of Israel. The patrons both have an interest in a ceasefire, and it was facilitated by President-elect Donald Trump, who agreed to grant his rival Biden a consolation prize, something to boast about during what remains of his presidency and life. Trump encouraged the US mediator, Amos Hochstein, to press forward. Meanwhile, Iran did not need encouragement, as it understood that the sixty days between now and Trump’s inauguration are critical.
When the patrons come to an agreement, their followers have no choice but to go along with it and wax lyrical about the shining victory that made all their losses and sacrifices worthwhile!
The war that went on for a year and two months was one of hybrid warfare, with both conventional military strategies and militia tactics used. It was the longest of all the major wars Israel has fought on all of its fronts, and its surprises defined it and set it on a course that made stopping it, like stopping any other, nearly impossible.
The surprise began with the earthquake of October 7, 2023, which was followed by the surprise of Gaza’s steadfast militant resistance against Israel’s retaliatory invasion. Another was the conflict's expansion from Rafah to Naqoura to Bab el-Mandeb, which, in turn, led to the surprise of unprecedented engagement by masses and states around the world, the surprise of the International Court of Justice and its rulings, the International Criminal Court and the arrest warrants it has issued, and many other evident and unseen repercussions of the longest and most violent war in the Middle East has ever seen.
It has been three days since the latest ceasefire came into effect, and it has held firm due to all parties’ need for it. The sixty-day truce could serve as the foundation for political efforts to go beyond a ceasefire, potentially ultimately ending with the delineation of land borders. This could open the door to peace and normalization processes that mirror the peace agreements and normalizations that have already been achieved and endured in the region. Indeed, this prospect was explicitly mentioned, and efforts are expected to continue after having begun before this war.
In matters of war and peace, there is no exception to the rule that governs all wars: ceasefires are the subject and political settlements are the predicate, and no sentence can be sound with a subject but no predicate.
The subject in the Middle East and in all wars is the conflict with Israel, a struggle rooted in the Palestinian cause. You may interpret its role in the conflict however you like: you could see it as a real cause or a pretext, a principled, ideological, tactical, or existential commitment, an economic or commercial matter, or a narrative exploited in domestic conflicts, party programs, and military coups. In reality, it encapsulates all of those things, as it is a magical flashpoint that cannot be extinguished, a metal for which no solvent has yet been invented.
However, this magical flashpoint has a feature that makes it resolvable. It could be addressed at the root, beginning with a ceasefire in Gaza similar to that of Lebanon, provided that the root cause is immediately addressed. I believe that the Palestinians and Arabs are prepared to cooperate to the fullest extent.
Egypt has made a push for a ceasefire in Gaza. It is trying to strike while the iron is hot and seize the opportunity. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is working on a permanent and radical settlement after having established a comprehensive international framework for pressing forward with a sweeping solution. As Arafat said before the UN General Assembly decades ago, "Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand." The international coalition, strengthened by Arab, Islamic, and global consensus, now says, "Do not waste the opportunity this time, because the alternative is the war or wars standing behind the door."