After Damascus, Beirut now celebrates a new era with the election of a president, a position that Hezbollah had obstructed, leaving the post vacant since October 2022. This new phase in Lebanon concludes fifty years of regional exploitation of this small country, the second smallest Arab state in terms of area.
For decades, Lebanon became a hub for regional conflicts involving Nasserism, Saddamism, the al-Assad regime, and Iranian influence. It was forced to be the sole front with Israel after the Egyptian, Jordanian, and Syrian fronts were closed. The situation is now returning to balance after Iran’s influence has been eliminated and the Assad regime removed.
Thus, international demands have finally been met, paving the way for political and commercial dealings with Beirut. Local battles among Lebanese factions will persist, but as long as they remain without gunfire, they are not the concern of other countries and are left to internal settlements within Lebanon’s complex governance framework.
Following the successful resolution of the presidency, a series of changes is anticipated. Joseph Aoun was elected president through a successful “cesarean” process, facilitated by Arab and international forces. The Americans threatened to halt economic support from any source, and Israeli drones continued to circle overhead, leveraging the context of war and political vacuum.
During deliberations, the Iranian embassy’s luggage was searched at Beirut Airport, and prohibited contents were confiscated and publicly exposed. On the land border, Lebanese security handed over dozens of wanted Syrian officers to the new regime in Damascus. Inside parliament, it is no longer possible or permissible to coerce MPs into voting against their will, as Hezbollah and the Assad regime once did.
Regardless, Iran is now part of the past. While Hezbollah remains, efforts to dismantle much of its arsenal will continue under a ceasefire agreement.
The latest war will be the last conflict with Israel via Lebanon. Amid the evolving circumstances, we will witness further developments and new hopes. Lebanon’s commercial activity, disrupted by the Syrian war and constrained by Hezbollah and Assad’s drug-smuggling operations, will find open markets once again.
The country will also be able to activate the oil production agreement in its shared waters with Israel and put an end to the remaining border disputes fabricated by the Assad regime after Israel’s withdrawal from the south in 2000. This was used to justify the “Iranian-Syrian resistance” under the pretext of liberating the “occupied Shebaa Farms.” Sovereign states in the region have realized that ending the state of war with Israel serves their national security interests.
Sadat signed the Camp David Accords, closing the Egyptian front, followed by King Hussein with the Wadi Araba Agreement. Even Hafez al-Assad preceded them by signing the Disengagement Agreement in 1974, which effectively became a peace treaty lasting fifty years.
Some Lebanese argue for the need for something beyond a ceasefire – an internationally guaranteed permanent agreement to prevent the return of wars in the name of resistance. In his inauguration speech, the new president hinted: “We will discuss a comprehensive defense strategy on diplomatic, economic, and military levels.”
Lebanon may not yet have recovered sufficiently to take such a bold step and end its use as a battleground for Syria, Palestinian organizations, or Iran. However, Lebanon can build on the Naqoura Agreement it signed with Israel in 1949. Based on this, both countries recognized each other’s borders and agreed to abstain from military actions by “regular and irregular forces.” In reality, peace agreements protect Arab states, not Israel, which is always militarily superior to them.
These agreements also safeguard Arab states’ rights to their lands and resources amid the shifting dynamics of conflict with Israel and regional powers. This matter is left to the Lebanese and the appropriate time. It is likely that the last war convinced even the remaining factions – Hezbollah’s popular base, which bore the greatest cost – that ending wars is in their best interest.
What do others want from Lebanon? In his inaugural speech, President Aoun stated that Lebanon would not rely on external forces but would export only its best products and focus on its economy.
