One self-evident condition for solving a problem is recognizing that it exists, and the problem in Lebanon is its defeat. However, Hezbollah does not acknowledge this defeat. As for the occupation and destruction, this defeat's extremely visible and undeniable consequences, they are attributed to the quasi-metaphysical evil of a belligerent and peculiar disposition.
Yet, the party is asking the Lebanese state to liberate and build- that is, to erase the traces of the defeat that it led us to and then claimed had never happened. In saying this and refusing to take any responsibility, Hezbollah is announcing "victory" over the rest of the country, as claiming "victory" over Israel is untenable. This all amounts to nothing more than the party rubbing salt on the deep wound of our communal schisms.
In fact, some of its spokesmen have now begun to threaten, without any equivocation, nothing less than a civil war awaiting us behind the door. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s "moderates" are demanding that the state carry out a suicide mission and replicate what the resistance had, or else there will be doom and misery.
This deep paralyzation of domestic politics, which stands in the way of everything else and creates limitless harm, feeds on circumstances weakening us further, especially in confronting the immense challenge posed by Israel. We are coming out of a bankrupt experience that has worn us out- and that Hezbollah is primarily responsible for putting us through- and aggravated the rifts in our frayed national fabric. Addressing such a situation responsibly requires, above all, that we speak with blunt humility and self-awareness, clinging to the extremely scarce matters of national consensus that the new government and political order are seeking to represent and foster. There is no doubt that hounding and defaming this government and political order that, amid the comprehensive devastation left by the party and its war, have nothing but scattered bits of symbolic capital, amounts to summoning collective suicide.
This approach, which combines denial of defeat with a refusal to take personal responsibility, slander of the regime and government, and indulgent caprice, notably through tricks and ruses to avoid disarmament, could well ultimately be exploited as a pretext for expanding and deepening Israel’s intervention in Lebanon, to say nothing about its potential repercussions for reconstruction, even if the tools we need to rebuild were obtained. It would be the last poisoned gift the resistance offers Lebanon, or rather, the Shiite sect itself.
Yes, it is always crucial, as we seek to disarm the party, to make this sect feel embraced by the country and to avoid creating the impression that the Shiites are partners in the defeat of the Khomeinist party. However, the key to realizing this objective remains in the hands of Hezbollah: acknowledging its defeat and agreeing to hand over its arms would open the door to reassuring its sect and encourage its reintegration into political life. As for refusing to acknowledge its defeat, clinging to its arms, and threatening civil war, that would perpetuate the fears of non-Shiites- if not of the weapons themselves then of what may come of them. Such apprehensions would deprive Lebanon’s other communities of the luxury of reassuring others, as they would be demanding reassurances for themselves.
This is happening amid a bleak regional and international climate. We cannot fail to notice the scale of Israel’s region-wide victory, which has been coupled with growing fissures between communities and the political drought left by the Assad and Hezbollah regimes. As the defeat remains shrouded in denial, indications that the Jewish state plans to be the region’s police force are stacking up, and it seems that we, in Syria and Lebanon, could become its border guards and buffer states between Israel and Türkiye.
From its strategy of building buffer zones along the border to the potential resumption of its war on Gaza and its threats of continuing it "on seven fronts,” there are many causes of concern that must not be underestimated nor addressed with empty ‘’machismo.” Moreover, it is plainly obvious that Israel now has a free hand to toy with the insides of Levantine countries and exploit their sectarian and ethnic tensions. Meanwhile, we are being raided by segmentation that is not happy to merely split communities apart, it is also eliminating any space for "moderate" positions or attempts at a compromise "to save face,” whether by officials or in the intellectual and cultural space.
If the worst happens in Syria- whether it starts from the South, the East, or the coast- it would become all but impossible for Lebanon to save itself.
As for the position of small countries in the current balance of power, the heinous White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky has removed the need for much speculation about it. And with regard to what remains of Lebanon’s friendships and influence, it could be dissipated once it faces an extremely harsh test: clinging to illegitimate arms and demanding rewards for a victory that its proponents are themselves not convinced of. Accordingly, Hezbollah and its supporters are doing everything that should be avoided in order to prove that politics and diplomacy serve no purpose, and to show that what we should do is commit collective suicide by embracing the notion that “we are all resistance fighters.”
However, in the face of illusions that the old man will become young again, which directly translates to evading Resolution 1701, standing together shoulder to shoulder- as a unit that has been defeated seeking to cut our losses- becomes the ultimate obligation and the only "narrow" path to some sort of recovery.
