Iran is a major and prestigious country that the region has an interest in seeing become stable and prosperous, away from the rhetoric of threats to shut the Hormuz Strait and support Houthi rockets attacks in the Red Sea. The Khomeini revolution was not just a major coup in Iran, but its constitution carried with it a project to upend regional equations.
Its article on exporting the revolution was clear and it’s no exaggeration to say that the Middle East has since the victory of the revolution in 1979 been witnessing the longest coup in its history. The Iraq-Iran war may have stopped the coup for eight years, but no sooner had it ended that the process kicked off again. Saddam Hussein used to say that the collapse of the Iraq "wall" would allow Iran to expand its influence all the way to Morocco.
Khomeini’s revolt was born out of tensions with the "Great Satan". Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei likes to recall the scenes of the past. He recalled the revolutionaries’ storming of the US embassy in Tehran where they humiliated the "American tyrant" in the longest hostage-taking operation. He can recall how Beirut awoke in 1983 to two huge explosions that targeted the US Marine Corps Barracks and the French service members of the Multinational Force in Lebanon that left hundreds dead and wounded. The attacks forced the "Great Satan" to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
He cannot forget the 2006 war between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel that General Qassem Soleimani oversaw from Lebanon. The war helped end Hezbollah and Syria’s isolation following Rafik al-Hariri's assassination in 2005. Khamenei recalled how Soleimani oversaw the process of attrition of the American forces in Iraq and the formation of armed factions loyal to Iran.
Khamenei can recall several major successes, including saving President Bashar al-Assad from suffering the same fate as Moammar al-Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Hosni Mubarak and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. He heard for himself his generals of holding the keys of four Arab capitals.
The supreme leader can recall other scenes. Barack Obama was eager to strike a nuclear deal with Iran. The Iranian negotiator succeeded in exempting Tehran’s regional activities and rocket arsenal from the talks. And Iran forged ahead in its major coups. Saddam Hussein’s collapse paved the way for Soleimani to pave the road from Tehran to Beirut, passing through Baghdad and Damascus.
Soleimani was killed at Donald Trump’s order during his first term in office. It was a painful blow, but it did not stop the coup project and the paved road remained open.
Despite its economic hardships, Iran never spared an expense in arming and financing its factions. It rejoiced at surrounding regions and maps with rockets and drones. In Tehran, there was a growing impression that the empire of factions was beyond the scope of threats and that it would continue to grow. It believed that Israel was incapable of paying the price of a major war. In the hallways of the "Axis of Resistance", there was a belief that the "major blow" will surprise the Jewish state, which will discover that it was weaker than a spider’s web. It believed that the US was too preoccupied with China’s rise to become embroiled in a costly coup in the Middle East.
Iran and its allies ultimately underestimated the extent of the American commitment to Israel’s security. When Yehya al-Sinwar launched his Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, followed by Hassan Nasrallah with his "support front" in Lebanon, there was a prevailing belief that the "major blow" had been struck.
Time is fickle. One day it is on your side and the next it is not.
Iran suddenly found itself on the wrong side. It was bombarded with horrific scenes and painful news. It is no easy feat for Israel to assassinate Hamas leader Ismail Hanieh in Tehran itself. It is no easy feat for Gaza to become awash in its own blood and for Iran to be helpless in saving it. More painful than all was the assassination of Nasrallah in Beirut and for Iran to be helpless in saving Hezbollah. The Houthi rockets have been mobilized but they have not saved anyone in Gaza or Lebanon.
Iran watched as its lines of regional defenses collapsed. Hamas and Hezbollah were dealt major blows, while the most devastating loss took place in Syria.
Israeli jets destroyed Iran’s air defenses and Tehran realized that continuing to trade blows would lead to a war with the US - a trap it has always sought to avoid.
It is obvious today that the US and Israel have retaliated to the last ring in the chain of Iran’s coup in the region. Tehran now has to listen to the Israeli defense minister tying Beirut’s security to that of the Galilee. Hezbollah cannot go back to war – not because of what it went through and the demands of the majority of the Lebanese people to limit the possession of weapons to the state, but because the person sitting in the presidential palace in Syria is no longer Bashar al-Assad, but Ahmed al-Sharaa.
These are the toughest days for the supreme leader. Trump is demanding that he respond to his letter within weeks. He is basically proposing to Iran that it return to Iran. The heavy US strikes on Houthi positions are daily hot messages to the supreme leader and his country. Trump has never spoken of overthrowing the Iranian regime. He is only demanding that Iran return to Iran and abandon its nuclear dream and parallel armies that it was mobilizing in the region.
Hamas may not lay down its weapons, but it may have to abandon the military aspect of the conflict for the foreseeable future. Hezbollah is facing similar difficulties.
Trump is awaiting the supreme leader’s response and warning of "bombing the likes of which they have never seen before" if he rejects his offer.
The supreme leader’s toughest days. His country today is nothing like it was before the Al-Aqsa Flood. His decision means that his country, the region and new balances will not favor Iran. Khomeini had one day swallowed the bitter pill and agreed to a ceasefire, abandoning the dream of toppling the "infidel" Baath regime in Iraq. Will Khamenei swallow the same pill and accept that Iran return to Iran, stripped of the bomb and its proxies?
