Since October 7, 2023, and in the aftermath of war in Gaza and Lebanon, Iranian-Israeli skirmishes, and the much-touted but ultimately hollow talk of "unified fronts", a new dynamic has emerged. One I would call "converging tracks".
Anyone observing the region today will detect a new common thread stretching from Iran to Lebanon, passing through Gaza, Yemen, and Iraq: disarmament. Or, more precisely, the convergence of disarmament trajectories. The point is not whether these efforts will succeed or fail, but rather that this is the moment we are in, and perhaps this is the current strategy.
Take Iran, for example. US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated that any agreement around Tehran’s nuclear program would hinge primarily on verifying uranium enrichment levels and assessing weaponization capabilities. "This includes missiles," he added, "and the detonators used to trigger bombs."
The Revolutionary Guard’s spokesman, Ali Mohammad Naeini, wasted no time in responding: "National defense, security, and military power are red lines for Iran. These cannot be negotiated—under any circumstances."
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas has received new Israeli proposals for a ceasefire. For the first time, these include the disarmament of Hamas as part of a second phase of negotiations. Sami Abu Zuhri, head of the group’s political bureau abroad, responded unequivocally: Hamas would not agree.
"Handing over Hamas’ weapons," he said, "is a red line. A million red lines. It’s not something we’ll even listen to, let alone discuss." He said this while Israel still occupies roughly a third of the Gaza Strip.
In Yemen, American strikes continue to target Houthi weapons stockpiles. Just yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that these attacks are now fueling plans for a ground war in Yemen, led by government-aligned forces and other Houthi rivals.
In Lebanon, the entire conversation has now shifted to the need for Hezbollah to hand over its weapons to the state. The Lebanese army has deployed to several areas that were once Hezbollah strongholds, as Israel continues to strike the party and its arsenal across the country. Lebanon, it’s worth noting, has also come to an agreement with Syria to curb smuggling and secure the border.
In Iraq, silence reigns. The Popular Mobilization Forces and other Iran-aligned militias have gone conspicuously quiet under the weight of American and Israeli threats. Insiders note that Iraq is far from insulated. The weapons question there, too, is only a matter of time.
All of this suggests a clearer picture: following the neutralization of the "Axis" and Syria’s effective exit from this theater of malign coordination, the region has entered a new phase, one marked by the pursuit of weapons. Chief among the targets: Iran’s missile program, increasingly treated as inseparable from the nuclear issue.
As Witkoff put it: "The devil is in the details." He’s right. But once the Iranians are sitting across the table from those they once called the "Great Satan"—the Americans—then we are no longer in a theater Tehran can comfortably stage-manage.
Add to this the new Israeli latitude, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now strikes wherever he pleases, including areas that once prided themselves on being part of a "unified front." The result is the erosion of the weapons equation, and the shrinking of all those so-called red lines—even the ones that, as Hamas now insists, number "a million."
