Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, leaks about Iran and its nuclear file have not stopped – whether it is what he is saying openly or what is being leaked by his administration or the Israelis or even the Iranian lobby in Washington.
The leaks only increased with the second round of negotiations between the Iranians and Americans in Rome on Saturday. Tehran itself, as well as its allies and opponents in the region, have also been behind some leaks.
The abundance of leaks has made it difficult to ascertain which way the negotiations are going. Will there be a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iranian file or is war inevitable?
The abundance of leaks, especially those from the US and Israel, does not mean that there is division between the American and Israeli allies as some sides would like to believe. I believe that the leaks all have the same message at heart and that the situation is similar to the one that preceded the war on Iraq in 2003.
At the time, the first person to read those leaks and wrongfully believed that they reflected divisions was Saddam Hussein himself. I will never forget late Prince Saud al-Faisal's statement before the invasion: “The American solution means cutting off the Iraqi head. The French solution means strangling it to death.”
Back then, I was editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat in Jeddah. I wrote the article that broke the news, and it was on the front page. It caused a stir. The regional head of AFP telephoned me to confirm the news. “Are you sure of it? Does this mean war is inevitable?” he asked me.
“The news is exactly as I have reported it. I am not a side in the story. I do not confirm or deny,” I replied. And so, the events unfolded afterwards as we all know, and the war erupted.
The developments today remind me of that time. I am not saying that we are headed towards war to oust the Iranian regime, but perhaps we are going to be faced with a different kind of war.
I don’t see any discrepancy in the positions of parties that are allied against Iran. Iran itself sees this, which is why it agreed to embark on a second round of negotiations despite all the contradictory statements it has made and the escalation from the US and Israel.
Iran is certainly taking the threats seriously. The leaks are also definitely not implying that anyone will be backing down against Iran. They are, though, focusing on how to stop its nuclear project. Trump has openly said that he prefers the diplomatic solution, and yet, he does not rule out the possibility of war.
As for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his stance on Iran has always been clear. He wants war with American cover and support. For nearly seven years, he has not for a moment stopped from making this position. He has spoken of striking Iranian facilities, whether through sabotage or intelligence operations.
Since October 7, 2023, Netanyahu has been targeting all of Iran’s proxies in the region. He has taken out Hamas and Hezbollah from the equation, and Washington is now working on eliminating the Houthis in Yemen.
This is all to say that any upcoming military confrontation will be limited to Iran. This is why Iran has taken the threats seriously and has not preoccupied itself with the leaks. Everyone must also not preoccupy themselves with them because war is possible now more than ever.
