Imagine you are a nation’s leader facing problems or seeking to underline your legitimacy on global stage, where will you go in pursuit of those goals?
In ancient times, all roads led to Rome or Susa where two great empires set the tune in large chunks of the three continents known at the time. In the age of European imperialism, the obvious destinations were London, Paris and Petrograd. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow were the obvious destinations. After the USSR collapsed, Washington was seen as the first source of authority with the United Nations as a distant second.
In the past decade, the UN has lost much of its aura as a source of moral authority let alone meaningful material relevance. Two of its veto-holding members have been engaged in wars of choice while a third one has been branded a gross violator of human rights. Despite all the talk about a multipolar world system- a meaningless conceit because if you have more than two poles you won’t have a polar system- Washington has emerged as the favored destination for leaders seeking help or legitimacy.
Under President Donald Trump, however, going to Washington has become a toss-up on which the visitor has no control. Instead of enhancing your legitimacy, you might end up being humiliated on live TV or sent packing after hearing a monologue about how bad Obama and Biden were.
In such a context, it is no surprise that Beijing is seen by many leaders as the must destination especially when one is in trouble or seeking political and economic support.
Thus, it was no coincidence that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing almost in the same timeframe. China’s President Xi Jinping gave both visitors exactly the same reception while granting neither any of the things they demanded.
The red carpet was unrolled, the cannons roared 21 times and children waved flags and cheered the honored guests but no pens were drawn to sign the deals.
Trump had hoped to get help on persuading Iran to offer concessions needed to reach a deal to end the current war. He also wanted Xi to finalize deals on the purchase of 300 Boeings and huge quantities of soy beans, among other goods, from the US. Xi kept a Mona Lisa smile but went no further. He made an enigmatic reference to his pet subject of Taiwan citing the Thucydides trap and warned of “discord.”
Anti-Trump pundits translated the old Mandarin word for “discord” as “conflict” or even “war” to claim Trump was threatened but went TACO.
In fact, there was no threat and Xi’s reference to the Thucydides trap was about a change on the status quo rather than depicting China as a rising power to replace the US as a retiring one. (I explained the Thucydides trap as a concept in an article in this newspaper on March 26, 2021).
In fact, Trump acted with exemplary discipline and gently reminded Xi that the US remains the indispensable power. He also made it clear that China has more to lose from the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz if only because some 40 percent of its energy needs pass through it while the US has the power go allow Chinese tankers to pass.
If blocking maritime passages becomes the norm, what will the closure of the Strait of Malacca by littoral states allied to the US would do to Chinese global trade? Xi gave Putin almost the same treatment with pomp and ceremony but without any concrete results. Putin had hoped to finalize a deal in a new Siberian oil and gas pipeline that has been negotiated for almost a decade. Xi, however, was determined not to walk into the trap that Russian set for the European Union with the Nordstream pipelines. Thus, Putin too ended with a
Mona Lisa smile from Xi but nothing to write home about.
Misunderstanding what China is today and might have tomorrow could have disastrous consequences. To treat China as a mere regional power is as wrong and dangerous as elevating it to the status of the new superpower.
Xi seems determined to learn from the experience of the US as a superpower paying a heavy price in blood and treasure to ensure the security of allies and protectorates but ending up with open or implied anti-Americanism. And that is not taking into account unintended consequences. For example, few people remember that Iran’s nuclear project was started by American money and expertise in 1959, and that the first generation of Iranian nuclear-scientists were trained in US universities.
China is certainly more than a regional power as Obama and Biden supposed. But nor is it the global superpower that the “End of America” chorus is singing about. It is going through a scientific and technological revolution unprecedented since the start of the Industrial Revolution in England. Each year its training more engineers than the US and EU combined.
It is also building its military power at top speed with special emphasis on projection of naval power. Nevertheless, China is still some distance away from acquiring a credible blue-water navy capable of projecting power across the globe. Xi’s genius as a leader lies in his understanding of the risks involved in playing big power. China is the only major power to know where and when it is time to pack and leave a trouble spot rather than stay and fight for an uncertain denouement.
Xi’s priorities remain the maintenance of economic growth, the elevation if living standards for two-thirds of the population still close to poverty lines. Then there is the problem of an aging population and a falling birth rate which cannot be corrected with waves of immigration as is the case in the US or the EU. Then there is the fact that China remains a second rate contestants in terms of soft power despite ambitious plans in all cultural domains.
Meanwhile, the brouhaha from China-bashers or Chinamaniacs like the late Henry Kissinger notwithstanding, I think China should be treated as a stabilizing power rather than a perturbateur as French intellectuals suggest. The obnoxious “yellow Peril” discourse did much damage to both China and the rest of the world. To his credit Trump seems to have understood that. He remained firm and demonstrated his leverage but treated Xi with respect.
All roads do not end in Beijing; but some certainly do. My guess is that Xi will not invade Taiwan because he knows the Confucian concept of “active waiting.” Decades ago, President Hu Jintao was asked why had China waited so long to regain sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao? “Things take time,” he said with the typical Chinese Mona Lisa smile.
