The first sparks of the Middle East war (which has not yet laid down its burdens) came from Gaza, through Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s response to it.
Over almost three years, this war continued and expanded, eventually peaking with the United States and Israel’s two wars against Iran, whose flames reached neighboring Gulf countries.
This war came very close to becoming a regional conflict due to the multiplicity of its arenas, from Gaza to Bab al-Mandab, and because its flames fed on three fronts: Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. Over this period, the world has suffered; no country, large or small, escaped its direct impact on its economy. It is no exaggeration to say that every individual on earth has paid a price for this war.
So-called strategic analysts made projections regarding the war’s outcomes. Some went so far as to assert the inevitability of unprecedented changes in the region: the disappearance of polities, the division of polities, and the emergence of new ones in place of those that had vanished or been divided.
Over the course of this war, Gaza was almost completely destroyed, and the idea (indeed, the project) of displacing its two and a half million inhabitants was revived, along with turning its ruins into the site of a Middle Eastern Riviera.
Because of what happened across the region, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to the tune of Greater Israel, which, as he said, has always been in his dreams. Moving from dreams to reality, he spoke of Israel no longer being a small state in the wilderness but a global power that has changed the Middle East and garnered a leading role in the world. For fear of provoking Trump's narcissism, he would say, albeit in a low voice, that this was achieved in partnership with America!
Acknowledging that this was the longest war to take place in the Middle East, the most destructive, the bloodiest, the greatest threat to regional and international stability, and the most damaging to the economies of states, societies, and individuals, its outcomes have not validated the unhinged predictions about the disappearance or division of polities, or the emergence of new ones atop the ruins produced by the war. Let us look at the picture through its most recent and most consequential developments, foremost among them the negotiations between America and Iran.
The two big wars- the 12-day war and the 40-day war that followed- did not change regional maps, regimes, or polities. Hormuz remained as it was, Iran remained as it was, and America returned to weighing what it could achieve through war and negotiations against what Obama had achieved years earlier, with one fundamental difference: Obama did not wage a terrifying war like the one that we saw during the Trump-Netanyahu era. And if there was one notable shift in policies and alignments, it was that Netanyahu was excluded from arrangements with Iran, returning to the old beginnings, where the old files remain as they were.
Whether unjust or aggrieved, victorious or defeated in one battle or several, America remains the great America. It maintains capabilities that are always ready and available to compensate for losses. That very much not the case for its only partner in the game of the two wars: Israel. What fundamental gains has the Jewish state made from its war on the eight fronts? In Gaza (the smallest front, and the least prepared militarily and even logistically), Israel is still unable to settle matters according to Netanyahu's declared agenda, total victory: turning Gaza into a security zone that poses no threat of any kind to the Gaza-envelope settlements. Without ignoring the catastrophe caused by the war of extermination against it, the possibilities of a settlement remain open, and without the success of the idea and project of displacement, no settlement will be an absolute victory for Israel, not even a relative victory.
From Gaza to southern Lebanon, where Israel is now fighting a difficult war, things are no different. What has actually changed in the reality of southern Lebanon's relationship with Israel since the first Palestinian fighter appeared on its land, and later the Lebanese faction replaced the Palestinians who had left?
Israel makes a show of its satisfaction with the agreement with the Lebanese state, which allows it to remain at numerous points in the south, but not permanently. Meanwhile, northern settlers continue to cry out, and through their popular leaders they declare that what happened has happened before, many times, without providing security for the residents of the Galilee, which resembles the Gaza envelope.
The political conclusions are what matter most. Losses hurt, but they do not determine the outcome. Here, it can be said that the regional maps have remained as they were; Iran remains the Iran in which nothing has changed. In fact, it regards its heavy losses as proof of the strength of its obstinacy and its resolve to persist in it, whatever further losses may follow. The fronts of Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine remain as they were. Accordingly, one could say: it is as though the war never happened.
