In South Lebanon, visitors are overcome by many bitter feelings. These feelings begin with advice not to approach the "occupied zone" too closely. How harsh it is to hear that the border villages within it are no longer villages but mass graves of rubble. How dreadful it is to live as the Israeli drone hovers over the city of Nabatieh, knowing it is capable of attacking any house it chooses, and killing any southerner it chooses.
Lebanon is a beautiful country plagued by misfortune. Israel was born on its borders five years after Lebanon gained independence in 1943. Since those days, Lebanon's fate has been intertwined with that of Palestine. Lebanon found itself on the Israeli-Arab fault line.
Living on this line of contact is an extremely difficult task. A system as fragile as Lebanon's, with its diverse components, cannot manage it. Misfortune quickly shifted from South Lebanon to its capital. Lebanon occupied its position on this fault line and began paying the price for its instability.
After the 1973 war, Hafez al-Assad discovered the difficulty of reclaiming the Golan by military means, so he focused his efforts on regaining Lebanon, succeeding in turning it into a playground for his policies, a hostage, and a bargaining chip in his negotiations with the "Great Satan."
As if the punishment of residing on one fault line were not enough, Lebanon found itself on a second, no less cruel and fierce. After the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982, Assad allowed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to enter the Lebanese Bekaa to train young Islamists to fight Israel. From the integration of these Islamic groups, Hezbollah would be born.
And if Lebanon's borders with Israel were transformed, thanks to the Cairo Agreement, which practically forced Lebanon to sign with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), into Palestinian-Israeli borders, then the South itself would later transform into Iranian-Israeli borders. Thus, Lebanon found itself situated on a second fault line, the Iranian-American one, of which South Lebanon was the preferred stage for its Israel-related unrest.
Lebanon was not alone on the fault line. Assad's regime extinguished the embers of confrontation with Israel and began to leverage its position on the American-Iranian fault line. He started selling his ability to speak to Iran, driven by his obsession with harassing Saddam Hussein's Iraq and deepening his control over Lebanon after seizing the right to appoint its presidents.
Assad skillfully managed the narrative of leveraging his country's position on both fault lines, benefiting from Saddam's regime's suicidal policies and his success in deepening the fragility in Lebanon, moving pawns through enticement, intimidation, and assassinations when necessary.
Bashar al-Assad inherited the "magician's" chair but not the magic. With the American invasion of Iraq, he joined the Iranian agenda. With the assassination of Rafik Hariri, he fell into isolation; then the "Arab Spring" swept over him, and he fell into subservience to Tehran, Moscow, and Hezbollah, despite his constant attempts to outsmart both adversaries and allies.
When Yahya al-Sinwar launched the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation on the Palestinian-Israeli fault line, leveraging Hamas's position on the Iranian position with its tunnels and drones, it did not occur to the younger Assad that he would be among the "Flood's" victims.
A skilled player named Recep Tayyip Erdogan was observing the game on both fault lines. He greatly benefited from Assad's stubbornness in refusing to meet him and delivered a blow that uprooted the Iranian influence in Syria and clipped Russia's wings there. Syria left the Iranian fault line, even if it remains geographically situated between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, according to one insider.
Al-Sharaa understood the message. The American advice was explicit: withdraw from the military aspect of the conflict with Israel. He complied despite Netanyahu's repeated provocations and, in return, reaped America and the world's openness to his country.
In Baghdad, one recalls that Iraq does not geographically border Israel, but it is clearly positioned on the Iranian-American fault line. The recent firestorm intensified the feeling among Iraqi politicians that there is no salvation for Iraq except by fully restoring a normal state that takes its decisions within its own institutions. The economic crisis burdened the country. Ali al-Zaidi's government concluded that the key to investment and prosperity lies in Washington, not in Tehran, just as President Joseph Aoun concluded that the key to ending the Israeli occupation lies in Washington, not in Tehran.
In Amman, a visitor senses that the picture is different. Jordan strongly defended its sovereignty and did not accept offers accompanied by financial incentives. Iran could not penetrate it despite its alliance with Hamas. Its location between Iranian-aligned factions on both sides of its borders with Iraq and Bashar al-Assad's Syria did not weaken its resolve. It overcame through dialogue the "Arab Spring" storm, which drowned Bashar's regime in the blood of Syrians.
The prices Jordan pays by virtue of its position on both fault lines are far less than the prices it would have paid had it accepted the establishment of "parallel armies" within its territory. It is also clear that Jordan believes the key lies in Washington to prevent Netanyahu from devouring the West Bank and to delineate the borders of Israel and Iran in the region.
I write about what I felt during my recent visit to Amman, Baghdad, and Beirut. But the damage from the fault lines is not limited to this part of the Arab world. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have always been targets due to their location, capabilities, and alliances. Repeated Iranian attacks on targets within their territories clearly indicate the dangers of the Iranian-American fault line igniting. Undoubtedly, the current unrest will lead to reviews and reassessments in light of lessons learned once it concludes.
The entire Middle East resides on more than one fault line. First, the outcome of the American-Iranian conflict must emerge to locate the mines laid between the Strait of Hormuz and South Lebanon.
