The first seventy days of Ali Falih al-Zaidi's premiership renewed significant hope among Iraqis since he took office, before Tehran dispelled it. It was a period marked by the pursuit of corrupt figures, the reform of crippled government agencies, and efforts to restrict weapons to the state by demanding militias surrender their arms, alongside launching an investment plan and a work program that welcomed support from the White House.
However, Iran fired upon the prime minister's program and transformed Iraq into a war front, similar to Lebanon and Yemen. It used Iraq's territory and citizens as a platform to attack six regional countries, most recently Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and American forces. These attacks on Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are, in reality, nothing less than Iranian aggression against Iraq's sovereignty and territory, and an attempt to prepare it to become another version of Lebanon and Yemen.
With the exception of militias linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the majority of Iraqis must feel frustrated and anxious about their country being dragged into a war that does not serve its interests. This sentiment was expressed by Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the National Shiite Movement, in a recent statement, in which he said: "Iraq and its people need peace, and enough war that has drained all our resources."
The crisis has confirmed what many have known for years: Iraq is paying a heavy price for Iranian influence. Tehran has used it as a corridor to bypass sanctions, a laundry for its funds, a conduit to smuggle its oil, and a bank to finance its regional activities with billions of dollars. It has also contributed to destabilizing Iraq's security and stability, weakening its economy and investments, undermining successive governments, and damaging its Arab and international relations.
Today, we are witnessing a new phase of this influence, represented by an attempt to transform Iraq into a proxy fighting on Iran's behalf in its war against the United States and several regional countries.
Within a single day, Iran dispelled the reforms the new prime minister attempted to achieve to open a different chapter in Iraq's history. It is seeking to harness the country to be its alternative military front following the decline of its influence in Lebanon and Gaza. Furthermore, the continuation of open borders for the activities of the Revolutionary Guard will lead Iraq toward further weakness and destruction.
Relations between countries can only be sound when based on mutual respect, which is what al-Sadr called for in his statement, saying: "This holy land has never been a launching pad for bombing the Islamic Republic. Therefore, the brothers in the 'Revolutionary Guard' must not bomb our independent holy territories, just as the rogue militias must not provide a pretext for the brothers in the Arab Gulf states to target our holy land."
The question remains: Can the prime minister resist the deeply entrenched Iranian influence? Today, Iraqi leaders have an opportunity to insist on rejecting the militarization of the state, opposing the "militiatization" of society, and preventing Iraq from being dragged into a regional war that Iraqis do not want and countries in the region do not desire.
At a time when Tehran does not hide its ambitions, it rather seeks to convince everyone that Iraq has become its arena, subject to its influence, and that conceding to this reality is inevitable. However, declaring a rejection of this "reality" and adhering to the independence of Iraqi decision-making will enjoy broad popular and institutional support. Iraq has been able to overcome crises and divisions over the past two decades, and it is capable of proving that once again.
The current crisis represents a new test for the will of the Iraqi government and people, and an opportunity to redraw the boundaries of the relationship with Tehran on foundations that preserve Iraq's sovereignty and the independence of its decision-making.
We understand Iraq's complex geopolitical position between competing regional powers. Tehran demands that Baghdad prevent its territory from being used against it, yet in return, it manages and arms a number of Iraqi militias in a clear challenge to the state's centralization and its exclusive right to possess weapons. It also directs these groups to attack neighboring countries, gradually pushing Iraq toward the Lebanese model - a path that threatens state institutions and national unity, and drives the country toward chaos.
In just two months, the prime minister succeeded in building a great deal of hope among Iraqis, regardless of their affiliations, regarding the possibility of restoring the state and achieving development and prosperity, while also gaining notable popular support. He will be capable of continuing this path if he manages to end the phenomenon of weapons outside state control and consolidate the state's legitimate monopoly on force, as this represents the primary gateway to building a stable and prosperous Iraq.
