Perhaps the most significant reading of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan is that it is not a mere reaction to current events. This contrasts with many reductive analyses that attempt to confine the agreement within the context of the war with Iran or Israeli arrogance, even if it will inevitably cast a shadow over those developments. Instead, the agreement focuses more heavily on the future landscape of tomorrow's world amidst these staggering transformations.
The agreement, particularly with reports of its openness to other regional nations joining, reveals an early awareness that the international system governing state relations since the end of the Cold War is undergoing a phase of transformation and decline. It underscores that waiting for an alternative system to stabilize without taking action is a strategic risk bordering on a gamble in a region inflamed by chaos and lawlessness.
The modern international system was established in 1945 around the centrality of American power and global institutions created under the balance of power resulting from World War II. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 further sharpened the distinct features of this system, steering it toward a unipolar context dominated by the United States. This era also witnessed the rise of an open global economy, common markets, Western-aligned alliances, and what later became known as "globalization," whose promise was to reduce the likelihood of conflict between major powers and states.
However, history that inspiring teacher took a different path. The events of September 11, 2001, placed a limit on conventional military power, giving rise to sub-state entities, jihadist movements, and armed militias of varying and conflicting religious backgrounds. Despite their differences, these groups operate toward a single goal: undermining the concept of the nation-state and destabilizing the global system and its agreements, however fragile they may be.
The disruption was not confined to militarization, politics, and security; economics entered the fray in 2008. The financial crisis dealt a heavy blow to the Western economic model, revealing new actors, led by China, which rapidly transformed into a major economic and strategic power. This crisis also paved the way for Russia's return to the heart of the threat facing the Old Continent.
The final blow - as the Arab saying goes - came with the COVID-19 pandemic, which exposed the fragility of supply chains. However, it also opened the door for accelerated digital transformation, linking it to services, technology economies, and energy.
The lesson of the post-World War II era is that any reconfiguration of the international system does not occur through gradual or peaceful transitions. The 1991 Gulf War, for instance, was not solely to liberate Kuwait, but reflected a foundational moment for the post-Cold War era. Similarly, it can be said that the October 7, 2023, attack did not just ignite the situation in Gaza, but caused the long-festering Palestinian wounds to bleed painfully. Yet, at the same time and despite its horrifying tragedies, it pushed the cause forward on the international stage.
Furthermore, it raised the dilemma of militias and factions, and the role of entities operating under the ambiguous and masked concept of resistance, which conceals beneath it an Iranian drive for hegemony and threat through its proxy arms - a flashpoint that ultimately escalated to target the security of the Red Sea and the maritime corridors of the world's most critical trade, commodities, and data.
Saudi Arabia, its allied nations, and moderate states also read these shifts as a warning message. What is happening now is the building of a solid regional layer in light of the strategic retrenchment sought by Washington. This equation has recurred frequently in the international context: whenever international systems change, regional powers are compelled to rearrange their positions until the new balance of power stabilizes.
The specific nature of the Makkah agreement is that it brings together three countries possessing complementary elements of strength that support one another. It will also face significant challenges, most notably transitioning from the principle of joint defense to deeper mechanisms for consultation and decision-making, defining the nature of threats that warrant collective action, building interoperability between forces, coordinating defense industries, exchanging information, and developing a vision for maritime and aerospace security, as well as defense against the evolution of cheap instruments of war, such as drones, and the challenges of technological and cyber warfare.
In his important recent book, "Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order," Thomas Wright argued that the post-Cold War world has reached its end. He noted that the difference between the two leaders was not over preserving the old system, but rather in how to retreat from its heavy burdens, amid the rise of competing powers and the increasing need for regional and middle powers to assume greater responsibility for their own security and interests. In it, he quotes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who used a highly significant phrase: we are facing a "rupture, not a transition."
In this context, the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement can be valued as an important preemptive step, serving as early preparation for a moment whose features have not yet fully formed, and which can be confronted through partnerships and alliances rather than anticipation and waiting.
