Wagner Mercenaries and Belarus Hold Military Exercises Near Poland’s Border 

This handout picture posted on July 20, 2023 on the Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry shows what is said a joint training of PMC Wagner fighters with Belarusian special forces servicemen at the Brestsky military ground. (Handout / TELEGRAM / @modmilby / AFP)
This handout picture posted on July 20, 2023 on the Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry shows what is said a joint training of PMC Wagner fighters with Belarusian special forces servicemen at the Brestsky military ground. (Handout / TELEGRAM / @modmilby / AFP)
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Wagner Mercenaries and Belarus Hold Military Exercises Near Poland’s Border 

This handout picture posted on July 20, 2023 on the Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry shows what is said a joint training of PMC Wagner fighters with Belarusian special forces servicemen at the Brestsky military ground. (Handout / TELEGRAM / @modmilby / AFP)
This handout picture posted on July 20, 2023 on the Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry shows what is said a joint training of PMC Wagner fighters with Belarusian special forces servicemen at the Brestsky military ground. (Handout / TELEGRAM / @modmilby / AFP)

Mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group will help train Belarusian special forces during exercises at a military range near the border with NATO-member Poland, the Belarusian defense ministry said on Thursday.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was shown in a video on Wednesday welcoming his fighters to Belarus, telling them they would take no further part in the Ukraine war for now but ordering them to gather their strength for Africa while they trained the Belarusian army.

"The armed forces of Belarus continue joint training with the fighters of the Wagner PMC (Private Military Company)," the Belarusian defense ministry said.

"During the week, special operations forces units together with representatives of the Company will work out combat training tasks at the Brest military range."

Poland said earlier this month it would send 500 police to shore up security at its border with Belarus to cope with rising numbers of migrants crossing as well as any potential threats after Wagner mercenaries relocated to Belarus.

Wagner's failed June 23-24 mutiny has been interpreted by the West as a challenge to President Vladimir Putin's rule that illustrates the weakness of the 70-year-old Kremlin chief and the strain of the Ukraine war on the Russian state.

The Kremlin rejects that interpretation and says the Russian people have rallied around Putin and the military.

Mercenary plans

A deal was struck on June 24 under which the mercenaries would move to Belarus in return for charges against them being dropped. Putin said the fighters could either leave for Belarus, come under the command of the defense ministry or go back to their families.

Wagner has lost 22,000 of its men in the Ukraine war while 40,000 have been wounded and up to 10,000 fighters will end up in Belarus, according to a post by a senior commander which was republished by Wagner's Telegram channel.

Reuters could not confirm what looks like the most detailed breakdown of Wagner numbers for several months. But if accurate they give an insight into the extent of the losses both sides are suffering in the Ukraine war - and of the continued strength of one of the world's most battle-hardened mercenary forces.

The senior commander known by his nom de guerre "Marx", Wagner's chief of staff, said in the post that a total of 78,000 Wagner men had participated in what he cast as "the Ukrainian business trip", 49,000 of them prisoners.

Wagner helped Russia annex Crimea in 2014, fought ISIS militants in Syria, operated in the Central African Republic and Mali and took the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut for Russia earlier this year with considerable losses on both sides.

"Up to 10 thousand fighters have gone or will go to Belarus," he said. "About 15 thousand have gone on holiday."

The post contradicted remarks by a Russian lawmaker who said that as many as 33,000 Wagner fighters had signed contracts with the defense ministry.

"If all the dead and those who went on holiday signed up then I suppose it is possible," Marx said.



France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
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France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)

France’s president and prime minister managed to form a new government just in time for the holidays. Now comes the hard part.

Crushing debt, intensifying pressure from the nationalist far right, wars in Europe and the Middle East: Challenges abound for President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou after an already tumultuous 2024.

What's wrong with French finances? The most urgent order of business is passing a 2025 budget. Financial markets, ratings agencies and the European Commission are pushing France to bring down its deficit, to comply with EU rules limiting debt and keep France’s borrowing costs from spiraling. That would threaten the stability and prosperity of all countries that share the euro currency.

France’s debt is currently estimated at a staggering 112% of gross domestic product. It grew further after the government gave aid payments to businesses and workers during COVID-19 lockdowns even as the pandemic depressed growth, and capped household energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The bill is now coming due.

But France’s previous government collapsed this month because Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and left-wing lawmakers opposed 60 billion euros in spending cuts and tax hikes in the original 2025 budget plan. Bayrou and new Finance Minister Eric Lombard are expected to scale back some of those promises, but the calculations are tough.

“The political situation is difficult. The international situation is dangerous, and the economic context is fragile,” Lombard, a low-profile banker who advised a Socialist government in the 1990s, said upon taking office.

“The environmental emergency, the social emergency, developing our businesses — these innumerable challenges require us to treat our endemic illness: the deficit,” he said. “The more we are indebted, the more the debt costs, and the more it suffocates the country.”

How long will this government last? This is France’s fourth government in the past year. No party has a parliamentary majority and the new Cabinet can only survive with the support of lawmakers on the center-right and center-left.

Le Pen — Macron’s fiercest rival — was instrumental in ousting the previous government by joining left-wing forces in a no-confidence vote. Bayrou consulted her when forming the new government and Le Pen remains a powerful force.

That angers left-wing groups, who had expected more influence in the new Cabinet, and who say promised spending cuts will hurt working-class families and small businesses hardest. Left-wing voters, meanwhile, feel betrayed ever since a coalition from the left won the most seats in the summer's snap legislative elections but failed to secure a government.

The possibility of a new no-confidence vote looms, though it's not clear how many parties would support it.

What about Macron? Macron has repeatedly said he will remain president until his term expires in 2027.

But France's constitution and current structure, dating from 1958 and called the Fifth Republic, were designed to ensure stability after a period of turmoil. If this new government collapses within months and the country remains in political paralysis, pressure will mount for Macron to step down and call early elections.

Le Pen's ascendant National Rally is intent on bringing Macron down. But Le Pen faces her own headaches: A March court ruling over alleged illegal party financing could see her barred from running for office.

What else is on the agenda? The National Rally and hard-right Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau want tougher immigration rules. But Bayrou wants to focus on making existing rules work. “There are plenty of (immigration) laws that exist. None is being applied,” he said Monday on broadcaster BFM-TV, to criticism from conservatives.

Military spending is a key issue amid fears about European security and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump for Europe to spend more on its own defense. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who champions military aid for Ukraine and ramping up weapons production, kept his job and stressed in a statement Tuesday the need to face down “accumulating threats” against France.

More immediately, Macron wants an emergency law in early January to allow sped-up reconstruction of the cyclone-ravaged French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean off Africa. Thousands of people are in emergency shelters and authorities are still counting the dead more than a week after the devastation.

Meanwhile the government in the restive French South Pacific territory of New Caledonia collapsed Tuesday in a wave of resignations by pro-independence figures — another challenge for the new overseas affairs minister, Manuel Valls, and the incoming Cabinet.