US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have a missile that can hit the United States is not backed by US intelligence reports, and appears to be exaggerated, according to three sources familiar with the reports, casting doubt on part of his case for a possible attack on the country.
In his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump began making his case to the American public for why the US could launch strikes against Iran, saying Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States.
But there have been no changes, two sources said, to an unclassified 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a "militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile" (ICBM) from its existing satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLV).
“President Trump is absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran, a country that chants ‘death to America,’ possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.
According to Reuters, one source said that even if China or North Korea - which closely cooperate with Iran - provided technological assistance, Iran would probably take up to eight years at the earliest to produce "something that is actually ICBM level and operational."
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence, said they were unaware of any US intelligence assessments that Iran was developing a missile that could soon range the US homeland but did not rule out the possibility of a new intelligence report they were unaware of.
The New York Times first reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from having missiles that can hit the United States.
In his address on Tuesday, Trump pointed to Tehran's support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country's missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.
Without providing evidence, Trump said that Tehran was beginning to rebuild the nuclear program that he claimed had been “obliterated” by US airstrikes last June on three major sites involved with uranium enrichment.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday referred to Iran’s ballistic missile program in less definitive terms than Trump, saying that Tehran is "on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US."
In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was expanding its missile capabilities.
"We are not developing long range missiles. We have limited range to below 2000 kilometers intentionally," he said. "We don’t want it to be a global threat. We only have (them) to defend ourselves. Our missiles build deterrence."
The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, have said that Iran shuttered a nuclear weapons development program in 2003.
But according to the IAEA, Tehran has in recent years continued enriching uranium, including to near weapons-grade.
Trump has threatened to attack Iran if it executes people arrested during nationwide anti-government protests in January or fails to agree a deal on its nuclear program in talks with the US.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, said Iran was a long way away from being able to mount atop a missile a nuclear warhead-carrying re-entry vehicle that could survive the extreme heat and forces of plunging through Earth’s atmosphere.
"Iran can launch a very long-range missile because of its space launch program," said Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank. "But it needs lots of work to develop an adequate RV (re-entry vehicle)."
Albright and other experts noted that Israeli airstrikes last year and in 2024 had badly damaged key facilities where Tehran produces liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles.
