The Lebanese people’s fear that their country would be dragged into a war with Israel are being compounded with the announcement of armed groups, besides Hezbollah, that they had launched rockets from southern Lebanon at Israeli settlements.
Some of these groups are well-known, such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, while others are new, like the Fajr (Dawn) Forces that are affiliated with the Jamaa al-Islamiya, the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Forces announced that they have joined the “resistance axis” that is led by Iran-backed Hezbollah.
This marks the first time that these groups have carried out operations in the South, a Hezbollah stronghold.
Some observers believe that they are operating with the blessing of Shiite Hezbollah that is seeking to mobilize as many armed groups to the southern front “in search of Sunni cover” for its role in a potential war.
The timing of the emergence of the Fajr Forces has raised questions, especially since the Jamaa al-Islamiya is - in theory - a rival of Hezbollah. In reality, it is impossible for the group to operate militarily in the South without Hezbollah’s approval and cover.
Head of the Jamaa al-Islamiya's political office Ali Abou Yassine said the Fajr Forces’ announcement of operations in the South does not mean that it is aligning itself with a foreign axis.
He said the announcement is “natural” as the forces “have not stopped and are continuing their jihadist work.”
“They will do everything they can towards their people, land, nation and residents of Gaza,” he added.
The Jamaa al-Islamiya first emerged five decades ago. A leading member of the group told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Fajr Forces are the military wing of the group that was formed in 1975.
It took part in operations against Israel during its invasion of Lebanon in 1982, he added. Three of its members were martyred in the southern city of Sidon at the time.
On the Fajr Forces’ recent operation in the South, he said resistance against Israel cannot be monopolized by one party – Hezbollah.
Director of the MENA Geopolitics Center Naufal Daou was not surprised by the announcement of the formation of the Fajr Forces, especially since the Jamaa al-Islamiya views itself as an affiliate of the Palestinian Hamas movement.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that there are concerns that Hezbollah would embroil it in military operations and that it would even receive backing from Sunnis. This means that the Hezbollah would not be the sole party to blame should Lebanon be dragged to war with Israel.
Daou warned that Lebanon is experiencing a critical and extraordinary phase that may lead to war, seeing as western countries have been quick to evacuate their national from the country.
These countries have had difficult experiences in the past with Hamas, which had kidnapped several of their nationals in Israel. They fear that they may also fall victim to it in Lebanon should the crisis deepen, significantly since these countries openly support Israel, he noted.
Military and strategic expert Khalil al-Helo said the operations between Hezbollah and Israel in the South are still contained. The party is firing rockets with a range of no more than 3 kilometers into Israel, while the latter is retaliating within a limited geographic area.
Hezbollah is worried, however, that Israel could exploit the international support it is enjoying to deal the party debilitating blows, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
