Italy’s Foreign Minister Heads to Syria to Encourage Post-Assad Transition

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani speaks to the media a he arrives for a meeting at Rome’s Villa Madama, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 on the situation in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini (Andrew Medichini/AP POOL)
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani speaks to the media a he arrives for a meeting at Rome’s Villa Madama, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 on the situation in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini (Andrew Medichini/AP POOL)
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Italy’s Foreign Minister Heads to Syria to Encourage Post-Assad Transition

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani speaks to the media a he arrives for a meeting at Rome’s Villa Madama, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 on the situation in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini (Andrew Medichini/AP POOL)
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani speaks to the media a he arrives for a meeting at Rome’s Villa Madama, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 on the situation in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini (Andrew Medichini/AP POOL)

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he would travel to Syria on Friday to encourage the country's transition following the ouster of President Bashar Assad by insurgents, and appealed on Europe to review its sanctions on Damascus now that the political situation has changed.
Tajani presided over a meeting in Rome on Thursday of foreign ministry officials from five countries, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the United States.
The aim, he said, is to coordinate the various post-Assad initiatives, with Italy prepared to make proposals on private investments in health care for the Syrian population.
Going into the meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and their European counterparts, Tajani said it was critical that all Syrians be recognized with equal rights. It was a reference to concerns about the rights of Christians and other minorities under Syria’s new de facto authorities of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HT.
“The first messages from Damascus have been positive. That’s why I’m going there tomorrow, to encourage this new phase that will help stabilize the international situation,” Tajani said.
Speaking to reporters, he said the European Union should discuss possible changes to its sanctions on Syria. “It’s an issue that should be discussed because Assad isn’t there anymore, it’s a new situation, and I think that the encouraging signals that are arriving should be further encouraged,” he said.
Syria has been under deeply isolating sanctions by the US, the European Union and others for years as a result of Assad’s brutal response to what began as peaceful anti-government protests in 2011 and spiraled into civil war.
HTS led a lightning insurgency that ousted Assad on Dec. 8 and ended his family’s decades-long rule. From 2011 until Assad’s downfall, Syria’s uprising and civil war killed an estimated 500,000 people.
The US has gradually lifted some penalties since Assad departed Syria for protection in Russia. The Biden administration in December decided to drop a $10 million bounty it had offered for the capture of a Syrian opposition leader whose forces led the ouster of Assad last month.
Syria’s new leaders also have been urged to respect the rights of minorities and women. Many Syrian Christians, who made up 10% of the population before Syria’s civil war, either fled the country or supported Assad out of fear of insurgents.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”