IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
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IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa

The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow a little faster and inflation to keep falling this year. But it warned that the outlook is clouded by President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to slash US taxes, impose tariffs on foreign goods, ease regulations on businesses and deport millions of immigrants working illegally in the United States.

The Washington-based lending agency expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year and next, up from 3.2% in 2024. The growth is steady but unimpressive: From 2000 to 2019, the world economy grew faster – an average of 3.7% a year. The sluggish growth reflects the lingering effects of big global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.

Global inflation, which had surged after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and caused shortages and higher prices, is forecast to fall from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% this year and 3.5% in 2026.

But in a blog post that accompanied the release of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, the fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote that the policies Trump has promised to introduce “are likely to push inflation higher in the near term,” The Associated Press reported.

Big tax cuts could overheat the US economy and inflation. Likewise, hefty tariffs on foreign products could at least temporarily push up prices and hurt exporting countries around the world. And mass deportations could cause restaurants, construction companies and other businesses to run short of workers, pushing up their costs and weighing on economic growth.

Gourinchas also wrote that Trump’s plans to slash regulations on business could “boost potential growth in the medium term if they remove red tape and stimulate innovation.’’ But he warned that “excessive deregulation could also weaken financial safeguards and increase financial vulnerabilities, putting the US economy on a dangerous boom-bust path.’’

Trump inherits a strong US economy. The IMF expects US growth to come in at 2.7% this year, a hefty half percentage point upgrade from the 2.2% it had forecast in October.

The American economy — the world's biggest — is proving resilient in the face of high interest rates, engineered by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation. The US is benefiting from a strong job market that gives consumers the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep spending, from strong gains in productivity and from an influx of immigrants that has eased labor shortages.

The US economy’s unexpectedly strong performance stands in sharp contrast to the advanced economies across the Atlantic Ocean. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 1% this year, up from 0.8% in 2024 but down from the 1.2% it was expecting in October. “Headwinds,” Gourinchas wrote, “include weak momentum, especially in manufacturing, low consumer confidence, and the persistence of a negative energy price shock’’ caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese economy, No. 2 in the world, is forecast to decelerate – from 4.8% last year to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. A collapse in the Chinese housing market has undermined consumer confidence. If government doesn’t do enough to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates, stepped-up spending or tax cuts, China “is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap,’’ Gourinchas warned, in which falling prices discourage consumers from spending (because they have an incentive to wait to get still better bargains) and make it more expensive for borrowers to repay loans.

The IMF forecasts came out a day after its sister agency, the World Bank, predicted global growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, same as last year and 2023.

The bank, which makes loans and grants to poor countries, warned that the growth wasn’t sufficient to reduce poverty in low-income countries. The IMF’s global growth estimates tend to be higher than the World Bank’s because they give more weight to faster-growing developing countries.



Saudi Arabia Strengthens Private Sector Collaboration at PIF Forum

Gatherers at the second edition of the PIF and Private Sector Forum. (PIF and Private Sector Forum)
Gatherers at the second edition of the PIF and Private Sector Forum. (PIF and Private Sector Forum)
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Saudi Arabia Strengthens Private Sector Collaboration at PIF Forum

Gatherers at the second edition of the PIF and Private Sector Forum. (PIF and Private Sector Forum)
Gatherers at the second edition of the PIF and Private Sector Forum. (PIF and Private Sector Forum)

Saudi Arabia is intensifying efforts to boost private sector contributions to its economy and attract foreign investments, aligning with Vision 2030’s goal of reducing reliance on oil. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) plays a pivotal role in this transformation by fostering an attractive investment climate and establishing new economic sectors.

A key platform driving this initiative is the 2025 PIF and Private Sector Forum, which launches on Wednesday in its third edition. The forum serves as a bridge between PIF, its subsidiaries, and private enterprises, reinforcing partnerships to accelerate economic diversification.

The Kingdom aims to increase the private sector’s share of GDP to 65% by 2030. To achieve this goal, the government has implemented economic reforms to enhance business operations, digitize government services and create financing programs, incubators and accelerators to support private enterprises.

PIF has been instrumental in unlocking previously untapped non-oil sectors, providing new investment opportunities. Local businesses have capitalized on these developments, contributing to sectoral growth and national economic expansion.

Private sector contribution

Since the launch of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has made significant strides in attracting foreign investments and bolstering private sector activity. In January 2025, the Kingdom’s non-oil economy recorded its strongest performance in over a decade.

The Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged from 58.4 in December 2024 to 60.5 in January 2025, marking its highest level since September 2014. The PMI, a key economic indicator, reflects improvements in private sector conditions.

The country’s economy grew by 1.3% in 2024, driven by a 4.3% expansion in non-oil activities, while the oil sector experienced contraction. The Ministry of Finance had projected a 0.8% GDP growth for the year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a 1.4% expansion.

Managing assets worth approximately $930 billion, PIF plans to reduce its international investment share from 30% to 18-20%, emphasizing domestic development projects.

“Most of PIF’s investments focus on national development initiatives,” stated PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan at the Future Investment Initiative conference.

Strategic sectors

Dr. Moodhi Al-Otaibi, Assistant Professor of Economics at Al Yamamah University, highlighted PIF’s essential role in achieving Vision 2030 through active contributions to local and global economic frameworks. This has positioned Saudi Arabia as a leading investment hub, fostering economic transformation and private sector growth.

She emphasized the private sector as the Kingdom’s long-term strategic partner, noting PIF’s commitment to enhancing local content. The fund focuses on 13 key industries, including housing, tourism, hospitality and entertainment, while also driving innovation.

PIF’s investment portfolio includes 99 companies that have significantly contributed to localization and economic diversification. The fund has introduced several targeted initiatives, such as Mosaahama (Contribution), Business Accelerator, and the PIF SME Program, to empower private enterprises and connect them with emerging opportunities.

The PIF and Private Sector Forum has seen rapid growth in participation over its past two editions. Attendee numbers surged from 4,000 in 2023 to 9,000 in 2024, while the number of PIF portfolio company booths expanded from 50 to 83. The forum also facilitated agreements and memorandums of understanding worth approximately SAR 17 billion ($4.5 billion).

The 2025 edition is expected to host 1,000 high-profile participants from public and private sectors. Over 120 speakers will take part in discussions, with extensive media coverage from more than 40 local and international outlets.