IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
TT

IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa

The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow a little faster and inflation to keep falling this year. But it warned that the outlook is clouded by President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to slash US taxes, impose tariffs on foreign goods, ease regulations on businesses and deport millions of immigrants working illegally in the United States.

The Washington-based lending agency expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year and next, up from 3.2% in 2024. The growth is steady but unimpressive: From 2000 to 2019, the world economy grew faster – an average of 3.7% a year. The sluggish growth reflects the lingering effects of big global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.

Global inflation, which had surged after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and caused shortages and higher prices, is forecast to fall from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% this year and 3.5% in 2026.

But in a blog post that accompanied the release of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, the fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote that the policies Trump has promised to introduce “are likely to push inflation higher in the near term,” The Associated Press reported.

Big tax cuts could overheat the US economy and inflation. Likewise, hefty tariffs on foreign products could at least temporarily push up prices and hurt exporting countries around the world. And mass deportations could cause restaurants, construction companies and other businesses to run short of workers, pushing up their costs and weighing on economic growth.

Gourinchas also wrote that Trump’s plans to slash regulations on business could “boost potential growth in the medium term if they remove red tape and stimulate innovation.’’ But he warned that “excessive deregulation could also weaken financial safeguards and increase financial vulnerabilities, putting the US economy on a dangerous boom-bust path.’’

Trump inherits a strong US economy. The IMF expects US growth to come in at 2.7% this year, a hefty half percentage point upgrade from the 2.2% it had forecast in October.

The American economy — the world's biggest — is proving resilient in the face of high interest rates, engineered by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation. The US is benefiting from a strong job market that gives consumers the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep spending, from strong gains in productivity and from an influx of immigrants that has eased labor shortages.

The US economy’s unexpectedly strong performance stands in sharp contrast to the advanced economies across the Atlantic Ocean. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 1% this year, up from 0.8% in 2024 but down from the 1.2% it was expecting in October. “Headwinds,” Gourinchas wrote, “include weak momentum, especially in manufacturing, low consumer confidence, and the persistence of a negative energy price shock’’ caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese economy, No. 2 in the world, is forecast to decelerate – from 4.8% last year to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. A collapse in the Chinese housing market has undermined consumer confidence. If government doesn’t do enough to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates, stepped-up spending or tax cuts, China “is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap,’’ Gourinchas warned, in which falling prices discourage consumers from spending (because they have an incentive to wait to get still better bargains) and make it more expensive for borrowers to repay loans.

The IMF forecasts came out a day after its sister agency, the World Bank, predicted global growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, same as last year and 2023.

The bank, which makes loans and grants to poor countries, warned that the growth wasn’t sufficient to reduce poverty in low-income countries. The IMF’s global growth estimates tend to be higher than the World Bank’s because they give more weight to faster-growing developing countries.



Saudi Arabia Prepares to Allow Foreign Property Ownership in January

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
TT

Saudi Arabia Prepares to Allow Foreign Property Ownership in January

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia is preparing to enter a new phase of economic openness in the real estate sector, with the updated law regulating property ownership by non-Saudis set to take effect in January.

The law, approved by the Saudi cabinet in July, is a strategic step to regulate real estate ownership by non-Saudis, both individuals and entities. Its main objective is to boost the real estate sector’s contribution to gross domestic product and diversify national income sources away from oil, in line with Vision 2030 goals.

The General Authority for Real Estate, the body responsible for implementation, is currently drafting the executive regulations and defining the geographic scope of areas where foreigners will be allowed to own and invest in property. These details are expected to be announced before the law comes into force.

The new legislation also aims to retain global talent by enabling long term residency and improving urban and housing quality.

Scope of ownership

Saudi Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majed Al-Hogail said in a televised interview last week that the system allowing foreigners to own residential property would be implemented next month across all Saudi cities, except for four, Makkah, Madinah, Jeddah and Riyadh.

In those cities, ownership will be permitted in specific designated areas. Resident expatriates will be allowed to own one residential unit.

In contrast, the system offers broader flexibility in other economic sectors, with foreign ownership open across all Saudi cities without exception in the commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors.

Fahd bin Suleiman, executive director of non-Saudi property ownership at the authority, said in November that areas designated for foreign ownership in Riyadh, Jeddah and the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah were still under review and would be announced “very soon” alongside the executive regulations governing the new rules.

He said those areas would be “very wide” and include what are known as mega projects, with foreign ownership ratios expected to range between 70 percent and 90 percent.

Bin Suleiman added that buyers would be required to be Muslim to purchase property in the two holy cities, but would otherwise face limited restrictions.

“In general, there are no major conditions, and we do not want to impose constraints. When comparing the current law with the updated one, the difference will be clear,” he said.

Market expectations

Commenting on the imminent implementation of the updated system, several real estate experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the law would generate additional demand for ready built housing units and increase liquidity in the property market.

They said it would also encourage international companies to establish headquarters and projects in the Kingdom, supporting economic activity and laying the foundation for a more stable and growing real estate sector.

They expect the positive impact to be most evident in Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, Taif and Madinah, as well as cities near tourist destinations, with initial effects emerging in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and extending into 2027.

Real estate expert and marketer Saqr Al-Zahrani said the system’s implementation would mark a turning point for the Saudi property market by expanding the base of market participants and prompting many expatriates to move from renting to ownership, particularly in permitted cities.

This shift, he said, would create additional demand for ready built units and planned residential communities, boosting sales activity and market liquidity.

Raising property quality

Al-Zahrani added that opening commercial, industrial and agricultural ownership to foreigners across all cities would give international companies stronger incentives to establish operations in Saudi Arabia, supporting economic growth and long term real estate sector stability.

He said one of the first expected changes would be an improvement in property quality, as developers move toward higher specifications and better planning to meet the needs of a broader buyer base.

The market is also likely to see an increase in organized supply, driven by the entry of local and international investors and developers targeting new demand.

The updated system, he said, would support price stability, as ownership by expatriates and foreigners tends to be long term, reducing short term speculation.

It would also enhance transparency and governance through accompanying legal and regulatory controls, while creating wider opportunities for the financing sector to develop tailored products for expatriates and foreigners, boosting lending activity and liquidity.

Al-Zahrani said the announcement of the system’s implementation would trigger immediate inquiries and interest, but the real impact on transaction volumes would emerge gradually, with initial signs expected in the second quarter of 2026, as the first deals are completed.

Clear indicators such as higher trading volumes, faster project delivery and increased foreign investor participation are likely to materialize in the third and fourth quarters, once the market has absorbed the executive regulations and begun to interact with them in a stable manner.

He said the first year of implementation would be a transition period, with the strongest effects becoming evident in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

Varying impact by geography

Real estate expert Ahmed Al Faqih said the system’s impact would vary by location, with the strongest positive effects expected in the Makkah region and its cities, including Jeddah and Taif, as well as Madinah. Riyadh, he said, would also play a prominent role in attracting non-Saudi capital for both ownership and investment.

Al Faqih said capital targeting tourism investment would likely focus on cities near tourist areas, such as Taif, Abha and Jazan, as well as Tabuk due to its proximity to the Neom project.

He expects the first year of implementation to serve as a testing and evaluation phase, with the system’s impact becoming more evident in 2027. He said the law would support key Vision 2030 objectives, including income diversification and reducing reliance on oil, while creating hundreds of thousands of job opportunities for Saudi men and women.

System incentives

The updated law aims to regulate real estate ownership by non-Saudis in line with Vision 2030, attract foreign direct investment into the Saudi property market and increase the sector’s contribution to the economy.

It also seeks to retain global talent by enabling long term settlement, raise the contribution of non-oil sectors, support sustainable economic growth and improve urban living standards.

Under the law, non-Saudis are permitted to own property or acquire rights within geographic areas designated by the cabinet, based on a proposal from the Real Estate General Authority and approval by the Council of Economic and Development Affairs. This includes specifying eligible rights, maximum ownership ratios and related controls.

The law also allows a non-Saudi resident natural person to own one residential property outside the designated geographic scope, excluding Makkah and Madinah. Ownership in those two cities requires the buyer to be Muslim.

Non listed companies partly owned by non-Saudis are permitted to own property within the designated areas, including Makkah and Madinah, provided they are established under Saudi company law. They may also own property outside those areas for operational purposes or employee housing, as defined by the regulations.

Listed companies, investment funds and special purpose entities are allowed to own property across the Kingdom, including Makkah and Madinah, in accordance with rules issued by the Capital Market Authority in coordination with the real estate authority and other relevant bodies.

The law stipulates that its application does not affect rights granted under other systems, such as the Premium Residency Program or Gulf Cooperation Council agreements, and that foreign ownership does not confer any additional privileges beyond legal rights.

It also introduces a fee of up to 5 percent of the property transaction value for non-Saudi ownership, with details to be set out in the executive regulations.

Violations may result in fines or warnings, while providing misleading information can lead to fines of up to 10 million riyals and, in some cases, court ordered sale of the violating property.


China Urges Stronger Coordination Between Business, Finance Systems to Spur Consumption

People walk past a second hand market for luxury cars in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
People walk past a second hand market for luxury cars in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
TT

China Urges Stronger Coordination Between Business, Finance Systems to Spur Consumption

People walk past a second hand market for luxury cars in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
People walk past a second hand market for luxury cars in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

China's commerce ministry and financial regulators have urged local authorities to promote stronger coordination between business and financial systems to boost consumption, a joint statement showed on Sunday.

Local commerce departments are encouraged to tap existing funding channels for consumption-boosting campaigns and work with financial institutions to unlock spending potential, the Ministry of Commerce, People's Bank of China and National Financial Regulatory Administration said in a joint statement.

Regions with resources are encouraged to use digital yuan smart-contract "red packets" to improve policy efficiency.

The trio also called for measures such as financing guarantees, interest subsidies and risk compensation to strengthen policy synergy and guide more credit into key consumption sectors.

In other economic news, Chinese demand for foreign luxury cars is waning as customers opt for more affordable Chinese brand models, often sold at big discounts, catering to their taste for fancy electronics and comfort.

That is bad news for European carmakers like Porsche, Aston Martin, Mercedes-Benz and BMW that have long dominated the upper reaches of the world's largest auto market.

A prolonged property downturn in China has left many consumers with little appetite for big purchases.

Meanwhile, the well-to-do are becoming increasingly shy about publicly displaying their wealth, said Paul Gong, UBS head of China Automotive Industry Research.

Many car buyers have been swayed by a 20,000 yuan ($2,830) trade-in subsidy offered by the Chinese government for purchasing electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. People tended to purchase cheaper, entry-level cars where the discount will count more and those cars are mostly Chinese made, Gong said.

“Slowing economic growth is one key driver behind weaker demand for premium cars,” said Claire Yuan, director of corporate ratings for China autos at S&P Global Ratings, referring to a segment that typically counts car brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

The market share of premium car sales in China, usually priced above 300,000 yuan ($42,400), more than doubled between 2017 and 2023 to about 15% of total sales, S&P said.

That trend is now reversing. The share of premium cars sales fell to 14% in 2024 and to 13% in the first nine months of 2025, S&P said.


Europe Aims for Simpler Import Procedures

Amazon trailer trucks are seen at Cherbourg Harbor, France January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes
Amazon trailer trucks are seen at Cherbourg Harbor, France January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes
TT

Europe Aims for Simpler Import Procedures

Amazon trailer trucks are seen at Cherbourg Harbor, France January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes
Amazon trailer trucks are seen at Cherbourg Harbor, France January 21, 2021. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

Every day, more than 12 million packages enter the European Union – making it increasingly difficult for customs officers to check for illegal or undeclared goods or assess duties.

Many of those packages are small fry – in 2024, around 4.6 billion packages with a declared value of less than 22 Euro ($25.6) entered the EU. The Commission reported in August that only 0.0082% of all imported products were checked by customs authorities.

According to the EU court of auditors, customs checks in some member states are not rigorous enough and the uneven application of rules across the bloc makes fraud easy.

Customs Reform: What’s the plan?

Back in 2023, the European Commission presented proposals for a comprehensive reform with the aim to reduce bureaucracy and respond to challenges such as the steep rise in e-commerce.

A central point in the EU’s reform plans is how to manage this enormous flood of packages and parcels that enter the bloc from third countries, in particular China.

The EU also plans to abolish the current 150-Euro duty free limit on packages to ensure a level playing field for companies by 2028 – until then the temporary measures are to remain in force. In mid-December, the Member States also supported the introduction of a general 3-Euro-duty on low value parcels, effective from July 2026. This is also a temporary measure.

In a nutshell, the reform aims to modernize customs procedures, strengthen cooperation between member states’ customs authorities and improve checks on imports and exports. Furthermore, it promises improved collection of duties and taxes and better protection of the internal market.

To this end, there is to be a new EU Customs Data Hub which is to be overseen by the – still to be established – EU Customs Authority (EUCA).

The EUCA is intended to serve as a central hub to support national customs agencies. Once implemented, it will streamline customs procedures, improve the safety of online purchases for EU citizens, and provide national authorities with simpler, more uniform tools.

With this reform in place, a number of benefits should be realized – such as simplified reporting requirements via one single interface – which dovetails with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s promises to cut red tape. The EU also envisages savings of up to 2 billion Euro a year as the hub will replace customs IT infrastructure in member states.

EU Customs Authority

The EU Customs Authority is to be established from 2026, with the European Commission responsible for its launch: First access by companies to the Data Hub is scheduled by 2028, voluntary use of all businesses by 2032 and use becoming obligatory by 2038.

The first key decision will be its location. Nine member states have thrown their hats in the ring. The competitors are Belgium (Liège), Croatia (Zagreb), France (Lille), Italy (Rome), the Netherlands (The Hague), Poland (Warsaw), Portugal (Porto), Romania (Bucharest), and Spain (Málaga).

The EU executive will now assess the nine applications, seeking to ensure that the location will enable the authority to carry out its tasks and powers, recruit highly qualified and specialized staff, and offer training opportunities.

A decision is expected around February and will be made together with the member states and the EU Parliament.

The host country must offer immediately available buildings, advanced IT and security infrastructure, space for at least 250 employees, high-tech meeting rooms, and a “secure area” for the management of confidential information, among many other criteria.

Protecting EU markets

“Safer trade means a safer Europe,” said Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski, explaining that a “strong and resilient” customs union guarantees the protection of the internal market, consumer safety and stable economic development.

But how to go about those joint trade and customs policies is still a bone of contention.

The customs reform is timely, as European capitals look to protect key strategic sectors against stiffening international trade headwinds.

Calls are growing in some parts for a “Made in Europe” scheme that would favor home-grown products. This position is being promoted especially by France.

The commission originally planned to publish a related EU initiative this month, but met with resistance from the Czechs, Slovaks, Irish, Swedes and Latvians and others.

The proposal has now been postponed until early next year, according to the Financial Times daily.