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IMF Chief Says Global Economy Doing ‘Better than Feared,’ Risks Remain

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
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IMF Chief Says Global Economy Doing ‘Better than Feared,’ Risks Remain

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)

The world economy has proven more resilient than expected despite acute strains from multiple shocks, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, forecasting only a slight slowing of global growth this year and in 2026.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the US economy had dodged a recession feared by many experts just six months ago.

The US economy and many others had held up, given better policies, a more adaptable private sector, less severe import tariffs than feared - at least for now - and supportive financial conditions, according to a text of her remarks to an event at the Milken Institute in Washington.

"We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks," Georgieva said in a preview of the IMF's upcoming World Economic Outlook.

In July, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% for 2026. It will release a fresh outlook next Tuesday during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.

The gathering takes place at a time when US President Donald Trump has upended global trade with steep tariffs and cracked down on immigration, and artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming technology and the outlook for labor.

The world economy is doing "better than feared, but worse than needed," Georgieva said, noting that the IMF was forecasting global growth of roughly 3% over the medium-term, well below the 3.7% forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Georgieva cited deep undercurrents of marginalization, discontent and hardship around the world, and said the global economy faced an array of risks.

Uncertainty is at exceptionally high levels and continuing to climb, while demand for gold - a traditional safe-haven asset for investors - is surging, Georgieva said, adding that holdings of monetary gold now exceeded 20% of the world's official reserves.

The US tariff shock has been less severe than initially announced in April, with the US trade-weighted tariff rate now around 17.5%, down from 23% in April, and countries largely skipping retaliatory tariffs.

But US tariff rates keep changing, and US inflation could rise if companies started to pass through more of the cost of tariffs, or if a flood of goods previously headed for the US triggered a second round of tariff hikes elsewhere.

Financial market valuations are also heading toward levels last seen during the internet-related bullishness 25 years ago, she said. An abrupt shift in sentiment - such as what happened during the dot.com crash of March 2000 - could drag down world growth, making life especially tough for developing countries.

"Buckle up," Georgieva said, adding, "Uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay."

GEORGIEVA WARNS ON DEBT LEVELS

The IMF chief urged countries to durably lift growth by boosting private-sector productivity, consolidating fiscal spending and addressing excessive imbalances, allowing them to rebuild their buffers to prepare for the next crisis.

Global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, Georgieva said.

Competition is key, along with free-market-friendly property rights, rule of law, strong financial sector oversights and accountable institutions.

In Asia, countries need to deepen trade and carry out reforms to strengthen the service sector, Georgieva said. A push to lower non-tariff barriers and boost regional integration could lift gross domestic product by 1.8% in the long run.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, business-friendly reforms could boost the real GDP per capita of the median African country by more than 10%. Europe should forge ahead with building a single market, which could help it catch up with the dynamism of the US private sector, she said.

The US should take "sustained action" to lower its federal debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio on track to exceed its all-time high after World War Two, Georgieva said. It should also work to boost household saving, such as through favorable treatment of retirement savings.

China also has work to do, including boosting fiscal spending on social safety nets and property sector clean-up, while cutting spending on industrial policy initiatives, she said.

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At Heart of the Crisis, Gulf States Act as Global Shock Absorbers

The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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At Heart of the Crisis, Gulf States Act as Global Shock Absorbers

The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

As the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its 18th day, fast-moving geopolitical shifts in the Middle East have again thrust Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states into focus as a pillar of global economic stability, particularly in energy markets, international trade, and supply chains.

As supply chains strain under the weight of conflict, GCC economies are emerging as a stabilizing force in global trade and energy, backed by a $2.3 trillion economic bloc. Ranked ninth globally, the region is no longer just an energy exporter, but a major financial and investment center in the international system.

That role is heightened by the Gulf’s geography, linking some of the world’s most critical trade and energy routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption to the vital passage has fueled fears of surging energy prices and supply chain breakdowns.

Hamza Dweik, head of trading for the Middle East and North Africa at Saxo Bank, said the Gulf’s stabilizing role goes beyond theory, with direct impact on market dynamics.

The region sits at the crossroads of key energy arteries, giving it unusual capacity to steady markets or amplify volatility when risks rise, Dweik told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoints, where oil flows averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

Oil market shock absorbers

From an energy standpoint, Dweik said the global economy relies on Gulf states for two core functions: steady oil supplies and the ability to absorb market shocks.

Spare production capacity concentrated in Gulf producers within OPEC+ allows markets to rebalance during disruptions, making the region a key stabilizer in global oil markets.

The Gulf’s influence extends beyond oil into liquefied natural gas. Qatar accounted for about 18.8% of global LNG exports in 2024, according to International Gas Union data, underscoring how gas prices are exposed to regional disruptions.

Trade and supply chains

The Gulf’s role also spans global trade and logistics, as international supply chains show clear signs of fragility.

Rising risks along maritime routes tied to the region, including the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, are not only delaying shipments but also pushing up transport and insurance costs, adding to global inflationary pressure.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that disruptions in key shipping corridors can raise freight costs and curb global trade when vessels are forced to reroute.

Global impact

Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, said Gulf states are central to global economic stability given their position at the heart of major energy and trade routes.

About 27% of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a nearly similar share of LNG supplies, meaning any disruption there amounts to a global supply shock, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Since the war began, shipping traffic through the strait has dropped sharply, prompting Gulf states to act quickly to safeguard energy flows to global markets.

Valecha said Gulf producers have turned to alternative pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and maintain exports.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline runs nearly 1,200 km from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a capacity of about 7 million barrels per day.

The United Arab Emirates operates the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which moves crude from inland fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, with a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day.

But these alternatives cannot fully replace volumes that typically pass through Hormuz, underscoring the strait’s critical importance to global markets.

Global investments

Beyond energy, Gulf sovereign wealth funds play a key role in stabilizing the global financial system, with combined assets of about $5.6 trillion, or roughly 36% of the world’s sovereign wealth fund assets.

Investments span equities, bonds, and infrastructure worldwide, supporting capital flows and financial stability.

However, Valecha said prolonged tensions could push some funds to redirect investments inward or toward defense spending, with potential knock-on effects for global markets.

The impact of the tensions is already visible. Oil prices have swung sharply since the war began, while maritime shipping costs have climbed.

International Monetary Fund estimates show that a 10% rise in energy prices over a full year could lift global inflation by about 40 basis points and slow global growth by between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.

Together, these dynamics underscore a shift in the Gulf’s global role. GCC states are no longer just energy suppliers, but a central pillar of global economic stability, across oil and gas, trade, and investment.

As geopolitical and economic shifts deepen, the region’s importance is set to grow, not only as an energy hub but as a key anchor for the global economy in times of crisis.

Business

Yuan Versus the Dollar: Will Hormuz Tensions Reshape the Global Monetary Order?

A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
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Yuan Versus the Dollar: Will Hormuz Tensions Reshape the Global Monetary Order?

A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 

As geopolitical tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has floated a proposal to link the passage of energy shipments to payments in currencies other than the US dollar.

The move appears designed to pressure global power centers. While it stops short of a declared currency war, it highlights growing international efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar in energy markets.

This comes as US President Donald Trump calls for an international coalition to secure the strait, casting doubt on Iran’s willingness to negotiate. Diplomacy remains stalled as the conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran enters its seventeenth day.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied any moves toward negotiations or a ceasefire. Trump has also warned that NATO could face a “very bad” future if US allies fail to act to reopen the waterway, even as Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure continue.

Dr. Abdulaziz bin Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said shifts in energy markets reflect a broader global trend toward currency diversification in international transactions. He argued that Iran’s proposal signals a growing willingness to explore alternatives amid geopolitical change, accelerating debate over the stability of currencies used in energy trade.

According to bin Sager, this is part of a gradual restructuring of the global financial system, particularly as major economies such as China and Russia expand the use of their national currencies in bilateral trade. He pointed to the decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves—from 65.3 percent in 2016 to 59.3 percent in 2024—as evidence of a steady shift.

He noted that countries are seeking to manage geopolitical risk and adopt more flexible economic strategies, reflecting a broader move toward a multipolar monetary system. China promotes the yuan through the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia advances its currency through bilateral agreements.

Dr. Saeed Sallam, Director of the Vision International Center for Strategic Studies, said that Iran’s demand as limited in immediate practical impact but significant in long-term symbolic terms. He warned that it could increase volatility and uncertainty in energy markets, complicate transactions due to limited yuan liquidity, and drive up maritime insurance and transport costs by 20 to 30 percent along alternative routes.

Rather than stabilizing markets, Sallam argued, the move could fragment oil trade. Limited volumes might be settled in yuan and routed through Hormuz to China, while the rest are diverted via more expensive routes. The result could be sharp increases in gas, fertilizer, and food prices, raising the risk of recession in Asian and European economies.

He continued that China is pursuing a strategy of careful balance. While it may accept limited yuan-based transactions to secure oil imports, it is unlikely to support escalation that threatens stability in the strait, through which roughly 40 percent of its imports pass. Russia, meanwhile, uses the proposal symbolically within the BRICS framework to challenge Washington, though stable energy markets remain essential to its export revenues.

Sallam concluded that Iran’s proposal may accelerate the rhetoric of de-dollarization and contribute to price shocks, but its real impact remains constrained by diplomatic and practical limits. The core issue, he stressed, is not the currency used but whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

For now, the dollar retains its dominant position in global energy trade, though that status could be tested by rapidly evolving military and diplomatic developments.

 

 

Business

World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
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World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)

Shares were mixed in Europe and Asia on Tuesday after a drop in oil prices helped send the US stock market to its best day since the war in Iran began.

The reprieve in prices for crude was short-lived, with Brent crude climbing nearly 4% early Tuesday to $104.13 a barrel. US benchmark crude also climbed, to $97.53 per barrel after dipping to about $93 on Monday.

US futures fell back, with the contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3%.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gave up early gains to slip 0.1% to 53,700.39 and the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.6% to 5,640.48.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.1% to 25,668.54, while the Shanghai Composite index dropped 0.9% to 4,049.91.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4% to 8,614.30 after the central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 4.1%.

Citing higher fuel prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday lifted the cash rate from 3.85% which it set at its Feb. 3 meeting in response to surging inflation. That rise was Australia’s first since November 2023.

Taiwan's Taiex rose 1.5% and India's Sensex picked up 0.6%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 climbed 1% for its biggest gain in five weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2%.

The driver for markets has been oil prices, which have spiked from roughly $70 before the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran. In response, Iran has nearly halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails from the Gulf to customers worldwide. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has nowhere to go.

The worry in financial markets is that if the strait remains closed for a long time, it could keep enough oil off the market to drive inflation up to a debilitating level for the global economy.

“The panic is still there, just dialed down a notch as crude slipped off the boil. Brent easing back toward $100 flipped the tape from bunker mentality to opportunistic risk-taking in a heartbeat,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

President Donald Trump over the weekend demanded that other countries hurt by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “take care of that passage” and said his country “will help - A LOT!”

The US and Israel have kept pummeling what they describe as military targets in Iran’s capital, and Israel stepped up its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon — roughly 20% of the nation’s population — as UN peacekeepers say Israel is massing ground troops along the border.

Uncertainty over the war's scope and duration have roiled financial markets since the war began just over two weeks ago, though markets have a track record of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts. Many professional investors are expecting that to be the case again, if oil prices don't go too high for too long. That has helped keep US stock prices near their record levels.

Higher prices are complicating the Federal Reserve's mission of balancing growth and inflation as President Donald Trump pushes the central bank to slash interest rates. Traders do not expect the Fed to cut rates at its policy meeting that wraps up on Wednesday.

Nvidia, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move into artificial-intelligence technology rose 1.6% on Monday as its CEO, Jensen Huang, talked up AI's possibilities at a conference, saying he foresaw $1 trillion in demand for AI chips through 2027. It was the strongest single force lifting the S&P 500.

In other dealings early Tuesday, the US dollar rose to 159.18 Japanese yen from 159.05 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1498 from $1.1507.