Voluntary Oil Production Cut: Decision to Balance Demand, Production Levels

This handout photo released by the Iraqi prime minister's office on April 1, 2023, shows workers going about their tasks at the Karbala oil refinery in the eponymous governorate, on the date it launched operations. (Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / AFP)
This handout photo released by the Iraqi prime minister's office on April 1, 2023, shows workers going about their tasks at the Karbala oil refinery in the eponymous governorate, on the date it launched operations. (Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / AFP)
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Voluntary Oil Production Cut: Decision to Balance Demand, Production Levels

This handout photo released by the Iraqi prime minister's office on April 1, 2023, shows workers going about their tasks at the Karbala oil refinery in the eponymous governorate, on the date it launched operations. (Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / AFP)
This handout photo released by the Iraqi prime minister's office on April 1, 2023, shows workers going about their tasks at the Karbala oil refinery in the eponymous governorate, on the date it launched operations. (Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / AFP)

Oil and economic experts confirmed that the voluntary oil production cuts taken by oil-exporting countries within OPEC+, starting May and continuing until the end of 2023, aim to achieve market balance.

Mubarak Alhajeri, a faculty member at Kuwait's College of Technological Studies, explained that the cut had shocked global markets in an apparent attempt to break the psychological and price barrier of Brent crude at $80 a barrel by reinforcing the balance between production and demand.

Alhajeri noted that the production cut was unexpected, contrary to what had been rumored about OPEC+ leaders recently, that they would not change their oil policies and would stick to the March-April 2023 plan.

He explained that the impact of this decision could be minor if the global economy slows down due to tight monetary policies and rising inflation indicators.

The oil economic landscape is ambiguous due to several reasons, said Alhajeri, adding that the most significant factor resides in initial reports indicating that the alliance’s production is approximately two million barrels below the agreed supply ceiling.

Furthermore, there are expectations that the production deficit will persist and eventually reach the production ceiling.

Alhajeri also cited the growing fears of a recession later this year due to the bankruptcy crisis facing several US and European banks and ongoing strikes in France, including at refineries, among the reasons for the uncertainty hovering over the oil economic scene.

He considered the timing of the production cut decision to be “critical” for the US, which is trying to refill its strategic reserves after its inventories reached their lowest levels since 1980, following the historic withdrawal decision last October aimed at curbing fuel price hikes.

The decision for the additional voluntary cut did not come out of the blue as it addresses the need to create a state of balance and price stability in the markets, said head of the Al-Shorouq Center for Economic Studies, Abdul Rahman Baashan.

Baashan highlighted that OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers, has voluntarily reduced oil production by over one million barrels per day amid increasing geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainties.

This voluntary decision aims to promote stability in oil prices and markets.

By doing so, the global economy can strengthen its ability to overcome the challenges of ongoing wars and conflicts, which have disrupted the global energy market.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Baashan emphasized that the voluntary decision aims to support the global energy crisis and enhance oil and petroleum product prices, which contributes to boosting the global energy sector and creating balance and stability in the market.

Thus, acceptable levels of global oil prices are maintained, consistent with changing global political shifts.

In statements to Kuwait’s official news agency, KUNA, Ahmed Al-Kouh, a petroleum engineering professor at the Public Authority for Applied Education and Training in Kuwait, said that the production cut decisions “surprised” all oil circles.

Al-Kouh praised OPEC+ for its “quick reading” of the economic situation and global oil demand, especially after the announcement of several multinational banks’ bankruptcies and increased expectations of a decline in global oil consumption in the near future.

He viewed the preemptive move to cut production as a “bold and successful” decision that serves the interests of oil-producing nations, while also considering the global markets and significantly supporting oil prices.

This move would balance demand and production levels, stressed Al-Kouh.

Speaking from Dubai, President of the Kuwait Business Council Feras al-Salem emphasized the importance of maintaining balance in oil markets.

He also stressed the need to support exploration and production investments to provide the world with sustainable oil supplies and their derivatives.

Moreover, al-Salem asserted that OPEC committees raise their recommendations in highly transparent technical reports.



Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Welcomes Partnership with Saudi Arabia to Support Vision 2030 and High-Tech Industries

Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (X)
Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (X)
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Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Welcomes Partnership with Saudi Arabia to Support Vision 2030 and High-Tech Industries

Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (X)
Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (X)

Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung emphasized that Taiwan attaches great importance to fostering strong economic and investment partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East.

He praised major regional development initiatives, led by Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, and renewed Taiwan’s readiness to deploy its technological capabilities and resources to foster sustainable cooperation in advanced industries.

Lin made his remarks in response to questions posed by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, which covered prospects for economic and technological collaboration, investment opportunities under Vision 2030, Taiwan’s economic performance, as well as its position on regional geopolitical challenges and global energy security.

The Taiwanese Foreign Minister during the opening of a new Taiwan office in the city of Phoenix, Arizona (X)

Economic Cooperation with Saudi Arabia & Vision 2030

In response to a question regarding economic, industrial, and technological ties with the Kingdom, Lin highlighted the global transition from traditional oil-based economies toward digital technology, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence (AI).

"We are aware that Saudi Arabia is actively pushing forward with Vision 2030 and transitioning toward modern technologies. We believe Taiwan is the ideal partner for Middle Eastern nations in these sectors," Lin stated.

Addressing future investment plans, Lin noted: "We are currently looking for partner countries in the Middle East that are willing to engage in normal exchanges and interactions with us.”

“Whenever such engagement is established, we stand fully prepared to invest and allocate our resources—whether in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, or other friendly nations that maintain strong relations with our international allies,” he added.

Robust Economic Performance and Market Growth

Regarding Taiwan’s economic trajectory and challenges, Lin strong growth indicators, noting that Taiwan’s economy grew by 8.68% last year, with projections expected to exceed 11% this year, fueled by technological innovation and surging global demand for semiconductors and AI technology.

The minister further pointed out that Taiwan’s stock exchange has become the fourth largest in the world, outperforming major G7 economies such as France, the UK, and Italy.

In the semiconductor sector, he noted that major Taiwanese tech firms (such as TSMC) have secured orders stretching over the next five years, exceeding their current manufacturing capacity.

FILE - A worker walks past the logo of TSMC or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company, in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Daniel Ceng, File)

Middle East Crises and Energy Security

Addressing questions regarding regional instability and energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, Lin acknowledged that Middle Eastern conflicts affect Taiwan due to its reliance on imported energy.

However, he emphasized that Taiwan has taken proactive measures to diversify its energy sources by increasing purchases and investments from the United States and Australia, while expanding domestic investments in renewable energy to safeguard national energy security.

Lin reiterated that Taiwan has built significant resilience in risk management amidst geopolitical challenges, expressing the country’s eagerness to share these experiences and forge robust economic bonds with partners around the world.


Gold Pauses Decline after Two-month Low as Traders Weigh US Fed Move

A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
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Gold Pauses Decline after Two-month Low as Traders Weigh US Fed Move

A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)

Gold prices steadied on Thursday after sliding to a two-month low in the previous session, as investors assessed the likelihood of another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.

Spot gold was little changed at $4,116.67 per ounce by 0625 GMT. On Wednesday, bullion prices touched their lowest level since August 5 as a ‌firmer dollar and ‌higher US Treasury yields weighed on the ‌market.

US ⁠gold futures were ⁠flat at $4,140.70.

"The short-term investment case for gold remains challenged... We would need to see a break above $4,275 to become more constructive on the near-term upside," said Chris Weston, head of research, Pepperstone.

"If markets begin treating rising long-end yields as a reflection of sovereign credit and fiscal risk rather than stronger economic fundamentals, gold ⁠could start to diverge positively from bond yields ‌and the debasement trade could return ‌with greater force."

Fed policymakers were divided last month over the rationale for ‌raising interest rates, with "some participants" seeing a hike as needed ‌to keep the impact of energy and other price shocks at bay, but a more hawkish core viewing it as necessary to guard against emerging demand-driven inflation, minutes showed.

Traders see only a 19% chance ‌of a rate hike later this month, but are pricing in an 86% likelihood of ⁠an increase ⁠in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Higher rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The global economy is under threat from persistently high energy prices, record public debt and risks from the AI investment boom, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned, urging governments to implement protective fiscal and monetary policy measures.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.9% at $59.01, platinum added 1.6% to $1,657.18 and palladium climbed 1.1% to $1,136.80.

"We see silver on a downward trajectory given the deteriorating chart patterns and expect a test of the 2026 lows in the mid to high $50s," Marex analyst Edward Meir said in a note.


Oil Rises as Middle East Supply Concerns Persist amid Shipping Attacks

Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
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Oil Rises as Middle East Supply Concerns Persist amid Shipping Attacks

Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)

Oil prices rose on Thursday on persistent worries about supply from the key Middle East producing region amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production.

Brent crude futures rose $2.28, or 2.28%, to $102.28 a barrel by 0427 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.66, or 1.88%, to $89.94.

Prices settled lower on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and to prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March, as governments seek to tackle record ‌fuel prices ‌and supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

However, threats to oil shipping ‌in ⁠the Gulf and ⁠the Strait of Hormuz, which carried shipments equal to about 20% of global oil and fuel before the war, have increased in October as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its eighth month, said Reuters.

Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest last week of any week since the Iran war began as Gulf producers increased exports. The expansion of attacks is occurring as more crude is flowing out of the Gulf but at higher costs and risk to cargoes and crew.

In the latest attack, a ⁠tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, causing casualties, the ‌United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said on Wednesday.

"The frequency ‌of Iranian attacks on ships is now at the highest point since the war began, and likely to ‌intensify further," said Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee head of energy.

He noted that "constrained product flows, extreme ‌logistics costs and high likelihood of Iranian escalation are keeping prices elevated".

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note on Thursday the IEA's oil release would likely consist of barrels that were already part of the group's original 400-million-barrel release plan at the start of the Middle East conflict, meaning it does not appear to represent an additional ‌draw on strategic inventories.

"Ultimately, strategic stock releases can augment supply flows temporarily but do not create new production capacity," Hynes said.

HURRICANE CONCERNS

Prices are also gaining ⁠on supply curtailments as ⁠a hurricane moves toward offshore production areas in the US, the world's biggest oil producer, causing companies to shut their platforms.

Shell and Chevron said on Wednesday they were curtailing offshore operations in the Gulf as Hurricane Isaias approached.

Overall, US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers had shut in about 25.08% of current oil production and 16.37% of current natural gas production as of Wednesday because of the storm, according to the Marine Minerals Administration.

Inventory data from the US, also the world's biggest oil consumer, were supportive for prices as crude stockpiles fell by a higher-than-expected amount, while diesel inventories declined slightly.

Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel decline.

Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel fuel and jet fuel, dropped by 42,000 barrels to 105.14 million barrels, well below their levels reported for this time of year in the past five years.