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Arabs Divided over Syrian-Turkish Normalization and its Conditions 

In this photo released by the official Syrian state news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, left, speaks with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in Damascus, Syria, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023. (SANA via AP)
In this photo released by the official Syrian state news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, left, speaks with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in Damascus, Syria, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023. (SANA via AP)
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Arabs Divided over Syrian-Turkish Normalization and its Conditions 

In this photo released by the official Syrian state news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, left, speaks with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in Damascus, Syria, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023. (SANA via AP)
In this photo released by the official Syrian state news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, left, speaks with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in Damascus, Syria, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023. (SANA via AP)

The United Arab Emirates – through senior officials - is seeking to join Russia in sponsoring the normalization of relations between Syria and Türkiye. The United States and Arab countries, meanwhile, are seeking to halt the normalization efforts, or at least, place conditions before they can be complete, signaling Arab division over the issue. 

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad will meet with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in the presence of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday. Efforts are underway to arrange for UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed’s participation at the meeting. 

The meeting will pave the way for a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The UAE has offered to host the summit. Should Moscow host the summit, then the UAE will send a high-level delegation to attend. Assad had visited the UAE in mid-2022 where he met with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. 

The potential summit was discussed between Assad and Sheikh Abdullah in Damascus on Wednesday. This was the Emirati official’s second visit to the Syrian capital since November 2021. 

Assad described ties between Syria and the UAE as “historic”, adding that it was “natural that they return to the depth that they enjoyed for several decades, in service of their countries and peoples,” reported Syria’s state news agency SANA. 

The UAE FM stressed that his country “supports stability in Syria and its sovereignty over all its territories.” He underscored the UAE’s “commitment to and keenness on supporting efforts to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis that would restore security and stability and Syria’s unity.” 

Roadmap 

Asharq Al-Awsat also learned that Cavusoglu is planning on visiting Washington on January 16 and 17 to brief American officials on the progress in normalizing ties with Damascus and his meeting with Mikdad. 

He will also brief them on the “roadmap” that Russia is sponsoring on the security, military, economic and political levels and in line with the agreement reached between Russia, Syria and Türkiye’s defense ministers and intelligence chiefs in recent weeks. The roadmap also covers arrangements in northeastern Syria where US troops are deployed in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against ISIS. 

A western diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat that a senior American official will visit Ankara in the coming hours as part of efforts to mediate between Türkiye and the Kurds in northeastern Syria. 

Ankara has been demanding that Moscow and Washington commit to the implementation of the military agreements they signed in late 2019 and that call for the withdrawal of the backbone of the SDF, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), 30 kilometers deep from Syria’s northern border with Türkiye. The withdrawal also includes the regions of Manbij and Tal Rifaat and demands the removal of heavy weapons from the buffer zone. 

The SDF has said that it has fulfilled its commitments and that it will not pull out the Asayish police force and dismantle the local councils. Türkiye is insisting on the dismantling of all Kurdish civilian and military institutions in the area. 

The American mediation is aiming to reach middle ground between Ankara and the Kurds to avert a new Turkish incursion in Syria before the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections set for mid-2023. 

Erdogan is banking on Moscow and Washington’s need for him due to the Russian war on Ukraine. Erdogan has shown more openness towards meeting Assad to agree on arrangements against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and YPG in northeastern Syria and form safe zones for the return of Syrian refugees from Türkiye, which has taken in some 4 million of them. 

Another diplomat has said that Ankara was “uneasy” with the leaks that came out from Damascus in wake of the meeting between the Russia, Syrian and Turkish defense ministers in Moscow that allegedly included an agreement for Türkiye to withdraw from northern Syria. 

Another diplomat revealed, however, that Damascus and Ankara view the PKK as a common threat and they will work against any separatist agenda because it would pose an existential danger to both countries. Syria and Türkiye also agreed to work on reopening the Aleppo-Latakia highway. 

Western coordination 

Sheikh Abdullah’s visit to Damascus took place in wake of American official statements that expressed opposition to normalization with Assad. The statements were issued in wake of the Syrian-Turkish meetings. 

A diplomat revealed that the US State Department was the only party among western countries to release a statement to voice opposition to the normalization. It is working with Paris, Berlin and London to issue a clear joint position that rejects normalization. 

Contacts are underway to hold a meeting between representatives of the US, France, Germany and Britain with United Nations envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, in Geneva on January 23 ahead of his visit to Damascus to meet Mikdad.  

The meeting will aim to underscore the stance on normalization and support offering funding to electricity and early recovery projects, in line with the relevant UN Security Council resolution that will be up for extension on January 10. Here, the UAE has offered to contribute in financing economic and electricity projects in Syria within the margin allowed by US sanctions and the Ceasar Act. 

Jordan was notably the first party to open higher levels of communication with Damascus. It backed the signing of a truce that covered southern Syria and the deal on easing the escalation between Russia and the US in mid-2018. Amman is now leading Arab efforts to reach a “joint Arab position that sets the Arab conditions in exchange for the normalization, for which a price will be extracted.” 

A western official said Jordan has noted that the smuggling of Captagon, weapons and ammunition across its border from Syria increased after normalization efforts kicked off. Moreover, Iran’s presence in southern Syria, near the Jordanian border, has not decreased. ISIS has also increased its activity there. 

Demands are therefore being made to coordinate efforts to pressure Damascus to offer political and geopolitical steps in the coming phase. 

Meanwhile, an Arab source revealed that a Palestinian Hamas delegation, including the movement’s leader in the Gaza Strip Khalil al-Hayya and leading member Osama Abou Hamdan, will visit Damascus next week. This will mark the first such visit since the Hamas leadership quit Damascus a decade ago. 

The same officials were part of a Palestinian delegation that had met Assad in October. Sources said Hayya and Abou Hamdan’s visit aims to discuss Hamas’ return to Syria and arrange for visits by more leading members to Damascus in the future. 

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Features

Afghans Come Home But Risk Exclusion Without any ID

Most of the 6.1 million Afghan returnees who have arrived from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023 are listed as undocumented. Aimal ZAHIR / AFP
Most of the 6.1 million Afghan returnees who have arrived from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023 are listed as undocumented. Aimal ZAHIR / AFP
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Afghans Come Home But Risk Exclusion Without any ID

Most of the 6.1 million Afghan returnees who have arrived from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023 are listed as undocumented. Aimal ZAHIR / AFP
Most of the 6.1 million Afghan returnees who have arrived from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023 are listed as undocumented. Aimal ZAHIR / AFP

Lugging suitcases across the border after packing up in Pakistan, Afghans are returning home with their worldly possessions but often lack one key item to restart their lives: an identity card.

On the Afghan side of the Torkham border crossing, children and adults wheeled their luggage or carried belongings atop their heads, as they moved from desk to desk to log their arrival, reported AFP.

"I don't know how and where to get the ID card; now I'll go and check," said 17-year-old Abdulrehman Sudais, standing beside a crate of chickens he had carried across the border for his mother.

The Pakistan-born teenager had been to Afghanistan just once before, but his cousin had already told him he would need ID to access work or education.

Out of 6.1 million Afghan returnees who have arrived from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023, more than 86 percent are listed as undocumented by the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

At the crossing point, which still bears the shrapnel marks of this year's war between the neighboring countries, officials and aid workers were taking down everyone's details.

While border officials contact authorities nationwide to verify the identity of those who don't have any form of ID, the process for newly arrived Afghans can be bewildering.

Sardar Khan, 41, was sitting in a large tent at Omari camp near the crossing, where people get a return certificate and are fingerprinted.

"We are blind; we don't know what to do," he told AFP, as his son fell asleep at his side.

"We've never been to Afghanistan before; we'll get to know the importance of ID cards," he said.

As well as a requirement for getting a job or school place, an ID card is essential for Afghans trying to prove they own land or a home, claiming inheritance, accessing state benefits, and travelling through the myriad of checkpoints across the country.

Outside the tent, as the temperature hit 40C, people waiting to be processed huddled in the limited shade available.

Ziad Salih, regional coordinator at IOM, described the ID card as "one of the essential pieces of the puzzle" for Afghans.

"Many returnees are arriving without a valid ID document and this is placing them at risk of administrative and social exclusion," he told AFP at the agency's Torkham transit center.

Afghanistan's Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation Affairs did not respond to AFP's request to comment on the documentation issue.

'Difficult decisions'

Near the Torkham crossing, colorful trucks were piled high with families' furniture and other possessions from Pakistan.

Once Afghans reach their destination -- often the places their relatives fled years ago -- organizations have helplines and projects to support them with their paperwork.

Murat Khan Safi, an octogenarian who returned a few months ago, found rooms to rent on the outskirts of Jalalabad, the closest city to the border crossing.

"We were given a number at Torkham, then we contacted WADAN, and we made the ID cards," he told AFP, referring to the Welfare Association for the Development of Afghanistan that works with the UN refugee agency (UNHCR).

Surrounded by sons and grandsons under a clattering ceiling fan, Safi showed the tattered identity document he has kept since fleeing the Soviet occupation more than four decades ago.

Processing the new ID cards only took a couple of days, he said, but paying a fee of 500 Afghanis ($7.80) for each relative was hard.

"I made some difficult decisions... I had to sell household belongings," said Safi, his white beard matching the color of his clothes.

The family has been reimbursed for the ID card fees by the Welfare Association, and is due to receive additional support.

In June, the United Nations launched an initiative that aims to help Afghans get 1.5 million identity documents over the next three years.

Arafat Jamal, UNHCR's representative for Afghanistan, described the lack of documentation as an "almost invisible" phenomenon.

"The absence of documentation is a serious impediment to continuing your lives," he told AFP in the capital Kabul.

The UN appeal comes as global aid cuts hit hard in Afghanistan, with those crossing the border entering a country where jobs are scarce and support has been shrinking.

At Omari camp, Nazamin Baloch didn't know how to get an ID card but knew from other Afghans that it was "important for everything".

"This is the first time I am coming to Afghanistan," said Baloch, in her sixties.

"No one in the family has an ID card... We have not even seen our country before."

Features

What Are the Key Challenges Facing NATO?

National flags of NATO members flutter at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium April 2, 2025. (Reuters)
National flags of NATO members flutter at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium April 2, 2025. (Reuters)
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What Are the Key Challenges Facing NATO?

National flags of NATO members flutter at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium April 2, 2025. (Reuters)
National flags of NATO members flutter at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium April 2, 2025. (Reuters)

NATO leaders gathering for a summit in Ankara on July ‌7-8 will discuss a host of challenges facing the alliance, from Europe taking on more responsibility for the continent’s security to boosting defense industrial production.

Some officials worry the Iran war could overshadow the gathering, but hope leaders will remain focused on the alliance’s core business: defense and deterrence.

Here is a look at the main challenges facing NATO in the months and years to come:

KEEPING TRUMP IN

NATO officials say one of their primary goals is to maintain unity and keep the US committed to the alliance’s Article 5 clause, which specifies that an attack on one of its members is an attack on all.

The alliance faced two crises this year which have fueled tension in the transatlantic relationship: US President Donald Trump’s demands for ownership of Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO-member Denmark, and his anger at NATO allies over their response to the Iran war.

The US president branded the alliance a "paper tiger" and said he was considering withdrawing from NATO. The alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, has sought to smooth over tensions, using a ‌mix of flattery ‌and data to persuade Trump that European NATO members are fulfilling their promises.

BURDEN-SHIFTING

The Trump ‌administration ⁠has pushed European ⁠governments to take on primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe as Washington seeks to dedicate more resources to the Indo-Pacific.

Some changes are already under way: Washington has decided to shrink the pool of US military capabilities available to NATO in a crisis, and European NATO members have filled almost all the gaps.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also announced a new review of America's troop deployments in Europe and threatened to withhold some US dues to NATO if "free-riding" allies did not meet their defense spending commitments.

European officials say they are working to step up on defense. But some have also questioned the US approach, arguing that a transition ⁠requires time and raising concern about the unpredictability of policy coming from Washington.

SPENDING MORE

European ‌NATO members and Canada are under significant pressure to boost defense investment both ‌to improve deterrence and defense against Russia and to demonstrate to Trump that they are taking his demands for burden-shifting seriously.

At a ‌summit in the Hague last year, NATO leaders backed the big increase in defense spending that Trump demanded, pledging to ‌spend 5% of GDP on defense and defense-related measures within a decade. Countries pledged to spend 3.5% of GDP on core defense — such as troops and weapons — and 1.5% on broader defense-related measures.

NATO's European allies and Canada increased defense spending by 20% in 2025 compared with the previous year in real terms, according to alliance data. But not everyone is on a trajectory to meet the new goals, and ‌a number of governments are starting to run into political difficulties with defense spending.

INDUSTRY

With European NATO countries boosting defense investment, a major challenge for the alliance is how to ⁠turn money into new military ⁠capabilities in a short timeframe.

In Ankara, NATO members are expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts. But some officials have expressed frustration that production has not increased at the pace they had hoped and that it still takes years to get some orders.

NATO's leadership has called on industry to work together, open new production lines and deliver more quickly.

DETERRING RUSSIA

NATO leaders meeting in Ankara are expected to reiterate that Russia poses a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security.

While alliance officials say Russia is grappling with significant economic problems and Ukraine has strengthened its position, Rutte has cautioned that nearly half of Russia’s state budget is now dedicated to defense and that the alliance cannot be naive about Moscow.

UKRAINE

European NATO members are continuing to finance aid for Kyiv, more than four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Money is channeled in various ways, including bilateral assistance, a European Union loan and the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List initiative where European countries pay to supply Ukraine with US weapons.

While most European leaders say they are committed to continuing to support Kyiv, sustaining a high level of funding remains a challenge amid other demands on national budgets and concern in some capitals that some European governments are contributing disproportionately more than others.

Features

Inside ‘Operation Dawn Strike’: The Covert Mission to Separate Iraq from Iran's Influence

Iraqi security personnel in their vehicle guard the street in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)
Iraqi security personnel in their vehicle guard the street in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)
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Inside ‘Operation Dawn Strike’: The Covert Mission to Separate Iraq from Iran's Influence

Iraqi security personnel in their vehicle guard the street in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)
Iraqi security personnel in their vehicle guard the street in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)

Government and security sources have revealed that the wave of arrests carried out by Iraqi authorities last Sunday unfolded along two parallel tracks. One targeted suspects accused of embezzling public funds, while the other — a highly classified operation — aimed at what sources described as “separating the twins”: severing the links between figures tied to Tehran within armed factions and oil-smuggling networks and Iraqi state institutions.

According to the sources, Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi discussed the plan in strict secrecy with a small circle of senior military officers two weeks before its launch, deliberately excluding leaders of the ruling Coordination Framework alliance. The decision reportedly triggered tensions during the coalition’s latest meeting in Baghdad and reignited questions over the balance of power within Iraq’s governing bloc.

A former US official described the covert operation as “major surgery whose success is too early to judge,” calling it “a bold move by a young prime minister who emerged from relative obscurity.” He cautioned, however, that “Iran’s response has yet to come.”

While the public phase of the operation focused on targets inside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, special forces simultaneously moved against homes and headquarters elsewhere in the capital and southern Iraq belonging to figures with direct ties to Iran.

Sources said pro-Iran factions initially suggested that a military coup was underway. One source revealed that members of the armed factions heard the word “coup” repeated over their communications networks for a short period before the true nature of the operation became clear.

The government has publicly disclosed the outcome of the campaign, officially dubbed Operation Dawn Strike, announcing the arrest of dozens of suspects accused of embezzling public funds.

Iraq’s Integrity Commission has pledged to continue making arrests while investigations into those detained proceed.

The operation was carried out by elite units from the Iraqi army, the Counter Terrorism Service, and the Special Division. According to sources, the release of images showing large sums of cash hidden inside suspects’ homes and farms, along with footage of a tank conducting a conspicuous maneuver inside the Green Zone, was intended to generate momentum for the covert phase of the operation while discouraging any immediate response from pro-Iran armed groups.

A senior figure in a Shiite faction told Asharq Al-Awsat that Operation Dawn Strike could ultimately serve as cover for dismantling Iraq’s armed “resistance” factions, describing such a strategy — if true — as “smart.”

The building of the Ministry of Planning is pictured in the Green Zone, in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)

Zero hour

People familiar with the arrest plan said the operation’s execution was conducted under extraordinary secrecy across both tracks.

They told Asharq Al-Awsat that planning had begun two weeks earlier and that Al-Zaidi restricted discussions to four senior security commanders, excluding party leaders within the Coordination Framework — the ruling coalition that nominated him for office in April.

Authorities set 2 a.m. on June 28 as “zero hour.”

According to informed sources, the operation began with the closure of the Green Zone, the sealing of Baghdad’s entry and exit points, and the deployment of forces around Baghdad International Airport. Simultaneously, however, the covert phase was already underway elsewhere in Baghdad and in southern Iraq.

Two security sources said special forces raided locations in eastern Baghdad, where Iran-aligned armed factions maintain headquarters.

Elite units searched homes and offices for high-value suspects, weapons, and documents, but several wanted individuals escaped shortly before security forces arrived, according to two informed sources.

Last-minute leak

Sources said Iraqi security forces deployed armored vehicles, troop carriers, tanks, and hundreds of personnel to give the operation overwhelming force and deter any armed resistance from faction-linked gunmen.

They added that one wanted individual was protected by an elite security detail from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

Officials said authorities maintained strict secrecy over both the planning and execution of the operation. Nevertheless, some suspects reportedly received last-minute warnings from executive and political figures.

“Yes, some managed to flee because personal connections alerted them that they had become targets, even less than an hour before security forces were due to arrive,” one source revealed.

For years, groups aligned with Iran have built extensive influence inside Iraqi state institutions by placing figures regarded as absolutely loyal to Tehran in key positions.

If confirmed, these accounts would suggest that Iranian-linked networks have penetrated Iraq’s law enforcement institutions, posing perhaps the greatest challenge yet to government efforts to curb Iranian influence and dismantle the corruption networks associated with it.

Iraqi politician Hamed Al-Sayyed said the campaign’s success depended on preventing information leaks that allow suspects to escape.

Law enforcement officers involved in Operation Dawn Strike reportedly received their deployment orders only hours before the operation and were sent to targets without being told exactly who or what they were pursuing.

“There were only very brief phone calls,” one security source told Asharq Al-Awsat.

According to two sources, the operation’s public track was designed to arrest an initial group of politicians long suspected of corruption and widely resented by the public. The covert track, meanwhile, focused on figures accused of facilitating the expansion of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) inside Iraq’s security and oil institutions.

One political official described that second track as “the real prize.”

Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali Al-Zaidi speaks during a parliamentary session at the parliament headquarters in Baghdad, Iraq, May 14, 2026. (Reuters)

‘Big catch’

Authorities have so far arrested dozens of executive officials, but Deputy Oil Ministers Ali Maarij and Adnan Al-Jumaili may prove to be the “big catch” capable of exposing a deeply entrenched network in Baghdad accused of facilitating the smuggling of Iranian oil under Iraqi cover.

According to officials, the smuggling networks use forged documents to move Iranian oil through Iraq. Their methods reportedly include blending Iraqi fuel oil with Iranian petroleum products before exporting the mixture as Iraqi oil, allowing Tehran to circumvent US sanctions while generating revenue for Iran-aligned Iraqi armed factions and affiliated networks.

On May 7, the US Department of the Treasury sanctioned Maarij, accusing him of exploiting his official position to facilitate oil shipments benefiting Iran and Iraqi factions loyal to Tehran. Baghdad denied the allegations.

Political circles in Baghdad widely believe the sanctions ended Maarij’s hopes of becoming oil minister. His nomination had been viewed by many as “a valuable gift” symbolizing the growing influence of the IRGC in Baghdad.

A former US diplomat, speaking anonymously, described the operation as “major surgery to separate the twins — the representatives of Iran in Iraq from the country’s official institutions.”

“It is too early to judge whether it will succeed,” he said. “But the boldness of the operation is impressive and suggests a different mood is emerging in Baghdad.”

A political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that authorities are assessing both the limits of their power and the risk of confrontation before deciding whether to resume the operation.

Al-Sayyed argued that retreating now would come at a high price.

“Al-Zaidi has left himself with only one option,” he said. “He must pursue political leaders accused of corruption.”

Another political official suggested, however, that “the second phase may already be underway, even as we speak, but in secret.”

Iraqi security personnel patrol along a street in Baghdad on June 28, 2026. (AFP)

A stormy meeting

On Monday, one day after Operation Dawn Strike, the ruling coalition held its regular meeting with Al-Zaidi in attendance.

Political officials said coalition leaders told the prime minister they supported anti-corruption efforts but argued that they had long agreed to coordinate such operations.

According to sources, the meeting quickly turned contentious, with many coalition leaders believing Al-Zaidi had acted behind their backs.

One senior coalition figure reportedly told him: “It would have been better to involve us in the plan to preserve the stability of the political process.”

Al-Zaidi replied: “What guarantee did I have that the information would not leak if I had informed you?”

The exchanges grew more heated after one coalition member accused the campaign of targeting his bloc’s influence in parliament.

According to sources, he objected to security forces surrounding the home of a senior figure in his political alliance, calling it “an intimidating measure.”

The debate reflected shifting dynamics within Iraq’s ruling coalition.

A senior member of an influential Shiite party said the latest meeting “felt unusual, as though the coalition was losing its monopoly over the political dynamics and decision-making process.”

Two members of the ruling alliance said Al-Zaidi remained composed throughout the meeting.

Even so, the prime minister appears intent on restoring political equilibrium to ensure the campaign can continue.

Sources described the operation as having entered “halftime.”

According to a Kurdish political leader, Al-Zaidi — who is said to enjoy unprecedented backing from US envoy Tom Barrack — hopes to strengthen his political standing ahead of an expected visit to Washington later this month.

The former US diplomat said Al-Zaidi may hope to become “the star of the evening” when he meets President Donald Trump at the White House.

He cautioned, however, that wielding this degree of authority in Iraq’s fragmented political system could prove a double-edged sword if not exercised with caution.