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'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
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'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)

By the end of the week, 50 days will have passed since Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and Israel responded with a devastating attack on the Gaza Strip.

While war is not over yet, all indicators suggest that the future of Gaza is being discussed in the corridors of major powers, to determine the shape of what has become known as “the next day.”

But what do we know about the scenarios being drawn for Gaza’s future?

The Defeat of Hamas

Western countries are drawing their scenarios based on the “inevitability” of the war ending with the defeat of Hamas and the movement’s failure to return to ruling Gaza again.

An informed Western source said that the major capitals are convinced that the clashes will not end before Hamas is defeated militarily, while acknowledging that this Palestinian movement is not only a military power, but also an “ideology” that cannot be eliminated by only using force.

“We know that [Hamas] is also an idea, and an idea is defeated by another,” the source remarked, adding that eliminating the group militarily without defeating it as an idea could “make us win the battle and lose the war.”

While the Israeli army penetrated deep into northern Gaza, Hamas, as well as the smaller Islamic Jihad group, are still daily announcing a series of operations, ambushes, bombings, and rocket launches, which means that they are able to continue confronting the invasion, at least, in the foreseeable future.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters are holed up in a network of tunnels that extend under Gaza City and its suburbs.

However, the prominent Western source does not seem convinced that Hamas will hold out for long in northern Gaza.

“Israel is now preparing to launch its expected attack on Khan Yunis,” he said, which means that the goal of eliminating Hamas militarily is not only limited to the northern Gaza Strip only, but will extend to the south as well.

This matter must raise fears of a huge wave of displacement towards the border with Egypt. It is known that Khan Yunis currently houses hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who were originally displaced from northern Gaza, the focus of the current Israeli attack.

Who will fill the void?

If the scenario of “defeating Hamas” is achieved - as Israel and Western countries hope - a problem will arise about who will fill the vacuum after the fall of its rule, which has continued since 2007.

The Western source said that the current focus is on a role for the Palestinian Authority in governing the Gaza Strip, which the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah linked to a broader agreement that includes “ending the occupation” and implementing a political solution that ends with the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip as well.

While the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to return to Gaza “onboard an Israeli tank,” the scenarios being discussed by Western diplomats place this matter at the top of the possible options in the next stage.

The informed Western source noted that among the possible options is the training of some members of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in order to manage the Strip in a future stage, noting that the PA is still paying the salaries of thousands of Palestinian employees, who remained in the Strip after Hamas took control of it in 2007, following a short war that ended with the defeat of the PA security forces.

It seems that the bet on the Authority’s new role in managing Gaza came after Western powers failed to convince Arab countries to assume part of this role by sending forces to the Gaza Strip. The prominent Western source acknowledged that the relevant Arab countries categorically rejected this proposal.

Their refusal is seemed to be linked to the conviction that the priority was to stop the war and help the residents of the Gaza Strip humanitarianly, before thinking about “the next day” and who will rule Gaza if Hamas is defeated.

Reviving the “two-state solution”

In light of the Arab refusal to send forces, and the rejection of the Palestinian Authority to assume a role outside the framework of a comprehensive solution, it seems that the Western focus in the next stage will be on reviving the peace process in order to reach the implementation of the two-state solution.

According to the Western source, the United States is telling its interlocutors that it is determined to launch a major effort to implement the two-state solution, based on its conviction that defeating Hamas militarily is not enough, and that the Palestinians need a state that represents them and lives side by side next to Israel.

He added that the Americans publicly announced their rejection of the Israeli re-occupation of Gaza Strip, as well as any idea of changing its current borders, noting that Washington considers that the features of the solution are defined in the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with a “land exchange” between the two parties, in reference to previous understandings and discussions on this matter between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Nonetheless, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said on Friday - as he welcome the Spanish and Belgian prime ministers in Cairo - that reviving the two-state solution path was an exhausted idea, stressing the need to move “to recognize the Palestinian state and bring it into the United Nations.”

Regardless of the Egyptian position, the US effort to revive the two-state solution could face more than one obstacle in the next stage.

First, there is the “Israeli obstacle”. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government includes some extremist settlers who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state, and who insist on expanding settlement in the West Bank, which they call Judea and Samaria, according to the biblical name.

Pushing towards the formation of a Palestinian state will undoubtedly portend the fall of Netanyahu’s government and the holding of new elections, in which right-wing extremists may achieve significant results.

Second, the Biden administration will face another domestic obstacle, represented by a difficult electoral campaign against a stubborn opponent, Donald Trump, whom opinion polls give him a significant lead over his Republican rivals, and also over his Democratic opponent, Biden.

If Trump wins, he will not hesitate to provide greater support to Israel, and won’t be enthusiastic about the establishment of a Palestinian state on the lines demanded by the Palestinian Authority.

A third point must be solved before discussing “the next day”, which is the “Hamas” obstacle. All the scenarios presented are based on the fact that the movement will be defeated militarily and its rule will end. But that has not been achieved yet. Pending its realization, the West Bank and the Lebanese border fronts may explode, and the confrontation between the US and the pro-Iranian militias may expand in both Syria and Iraq, and perhaps in Yemen as well.

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What to Know about Gaza's Rafah Border Crossing

Ambulances wait on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip in northeastern Egypt on February 1, 2026. (Photo by AFP)
Ambulances wait on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip in northeastern Egypt on February 1, 2026. (Photo by AFP)
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What to Know about Gaza's Rafah Border Crossing

Ambulances wait on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip in northeastern Egypt on February 1, 2026. (Photo by AFP)
Ambulances wait on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip in northeastern Egypt on February 1, 2026. (Photo by AFP)

Pedestrians are set to begin passing through the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on Monday, after it was largely shut for close to two years since Israeli forces seized the Palestinian side.

The reopening, demanded by the United Nations and aid groups, is a key part of the second phase of US President Donald Trump's truce plan for the Palestinian territory.

AFP looks at what to know about this crucial crossing:

- Vital access point -

COGAT, the Israeli defense ministry body coordinating Palestinian civilian affairs, has said it will only be open for the passage of "residents in both directions".

AFP images showed ambulances lined up on the Egyptian side of the border, preparing to receive medical evacuees, who are expected to be the first groups allowed out.

The Rafah crossing into Egypt -- often called Gaza's "lifeline" -- was the only border access for the territory that does not pass through Israel.

It now lies in an area held by Israeli forces following their withdrawal behind the so-called "Yellow Line" under the terms of the US-brokered ceasefire.

For a long time, the crossing was the main exit point for Palestinians from Gaza who were authorized to leave the narrow strip of land, under Israeli blockade since 2007.

From 2005 to 2007, it was the first Palestinian border terminal controlled by the Palestinian Authority, and later became a symbol of Hamas control over the Gaza Strip after the group seized power.

- Under Israeli control -

On May 7, 2024, the Israeli army took control of the Palestinian side, claiming that the crossing was being "used for terrorist purposes".

Many access points have since been mostly closed, including those used by the United Nations.

Rafah briefly reopened for medical evacuations during a short ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in January of last year.

Israel has said it will "conduct security clearance of individuals" permitted in and out of Gaza, which is meant to be administered by a 15-member Palestinian technocratic body.

The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza is also waiting to enter the territory, after Israel's approval.

No agreement has yet been reached on the number of Palestinians permitted through, sources said, noting that Egypt plans to admit "all Palestinians whom Israel authorizes to leave".

Palestinians intending to return to Gaza will be allowed limited luggage, no metal or electronic items and limited amounts of medication, according to the Palestinian embassy in Cairo.

- EU-Palestinian mission -

COGAT said "an initial pilot phase" began Sunday, "in coordination with the European Union Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM), Egypt, and all relevant stakeholders."

"The actual passage of residents in both directions will begin upon completion" of preliminary preparations, it added.

The Palestinian side of the crossing is expected to be administered by EUBAM and a delegation from the Palestinian Authority.

The EU had set up a civilian mission in 2005 to help monitor the Rafah crossing, but it was suspended two years later after the Hamas group took control of Gaza.

The European mission aims to provide a neutral, third-party presence at the key crossing and involves police from Italy, Spain and France. It was briefly redeployed in January of last year but suspended again in March.

Both the EUBAM and the Palestinian Authority delegation have arrived at the crossing, sources at the border told AFP.

- Aid entry -

Trump's plan, which underpins the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, stipulates the reopening of the Rafah crossing and the entry of 600 aid trucks per day.

But Israeli authorities have stalled on the matter and life-saving aid remains inadequate, according to aid groups.

International aid is generally routed from Egypt, through the Rafah checkpoint, before trucks are directed to the nearby Israeli crossing of Kerem Shalom -- which currently processes three-quarters of aid entering Gaza.

Drivers disembark their vehicles, which go through strict Israeli inspection before being unloaded and reloaded onto other vehicles authorized to enter Gaza.

Two aid sources on the Egyptian side told AFP on Thursday that Israel has continued to obstruct aid delivery, returning "dozens" of trucks without unloading them.

Other access points have operated in the past, but Israeli authorities have not communicated on whether they will reopen.

Features

NATO's Ability to Deter Russia Has Taken a Hit with Trans-Atlantic Infighting

A photo shows a residential area near the airport at the city of Nuuk, western Greenland, with a slightly snow covered mountain in the background, on January 28, 2026. (AFP)
A photo shows a residential area near the airport at the city of Nuuk, western Greenland, with a slightly snow covered mountain in the background, on January 28, 2026. (AFP)
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NATO's Ability to Deter Russia Has Taken a Hit with Trans-Atlantic Infighting

A photo shows a residential area near the airport at the city of Nuuk, western Greenland, with a slightly snow covered mountain in the background, on January 28, 2026. (AFP)
A photo shows a residential area near the airport at the city of Nuuk, western Greenland, with a slightly snow covered mountain in the background, on January 28, 2026. (AFP)

European allies and Canada are pouring billions of dollars into helping Ukraine, and they have pledged to massively boost their budgets to defend their territories.

But despite those efforts, NATO’s credibility as a unified force under US leadership has taken a huge hit over the past year as trust within the 32-nation military organization dissolved.

The rift has been most glaring over U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated threats to seize Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark. More recently, Trump's disparaging remarks about his NATO allies' troops in Afghanistan drew another outcry.

While the heat on Greenland has subsided for now, the infighting has seriously undercut the ability of the world’s biggest security alliance to deter adversaries, analysts say.

“The episode matters because it crossed a line that cannot be uncrossed,” Sophia Besch from the Carnegie Europe think tank said in a report on the Greenland crisis. “Even without force or sanctions, that breach weakens the alliance in a lasting way.”

The tensions haven’t gone unnoticed in Russia, NATO’s biggest threat.

Any deterrence of Russia relies on ensuring that President Vladimir Putin is convinced that NATO will retaliate should he expand his war beyond Ukraine. Right now, that does not seem to be the case.

“It’s a major upheaval for Europe, and we are watching it,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted last week.

Filling up the bucket

Criticized by US leaders for decades over low defense spending, and lashed relentlessly under Trump, European allies and Canada agreed in July to significantly up their game and start investing 5% of their gross domestic product on defense.

The pledge was aimed at taking the whip out of Trump's hand. The allies would spend as much of their economic output on core defense as the United States — around 3.5% of GDP — by 2035, plus a further 1.5% on security-related projects like upgrading bridges, air and seaports.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has hailed those pledges as a sign of NATO’s robust health and military might. He recently said that “fundamentally thanks to Donald J. Trump, NATO is stronger than it ever was.”

Though a big part of his job is to ensure that Trump does not pull the US out of NATO, as Trump has occasionally threatened, his flattery of the American leader has sometimes raised concern. Rutte has pointedly refused to speak about the rift over Greenland.

Article 5 at stake

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed in 1949 to counter the security threat posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and its deterrence is underpinned by a strong American troop presence in Europe.

The alliance is built on the political pledge that an attack on one ally must be met with a response from them all — the collective security guarantee enshrined in Article 5 of its rule book.

It hinges on the belief that the territories of all 32 allies must remain inviolate. Trump’s designs on Greenland attack that very principle, even though Article 5 does not apply in internal disputes because it can only be triggered unanimously.

“Instead of strengthening our alliances, threats against Greenland and NATO are undermining America’s own interests,” two US senators, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Lisa Murkowski, wrote in a New York Times op-ed.

“Suggestions that the United States would seize or coerce allies to sell territory do not project strength. They signal unpredictability, weaken deterrence and hand our adversaries exactly what they want: proof that democratic alliances are fragile and unreliable,” they said.

Even before Trump escalated his threats to seize control of Greenland, his European allies were never entirely convinced that he would defend them should they come under attack.

Trump has said that he doesn’t believe the allies would help him either, and he recently drew more anger when he questioned the role of European and Canadian troops who fought and died alongside Americans in Afghanistan. The president later partially reversed his remarks.

In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed criticism that Trump has undermined the alliance.

“The stronger our partners are in NATO, the more flexibility the United States will have to secure our interests in different parts of the world,” he said. “That’s not an abandonment of NATO. That is a reality of the 21st century and a world that’s changing now.”

A Russia not easily deterred

Despite NATO’s talk of increased spending, Moscow seems undeterred. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said this week that “it has become painfully clear that Russia will remain a major security threat for the long term.”

“We are fending off cyberattacks, sabotage against critical infrastructure, foreign interference and information manipulation, military intimidation, territorial threats and political meddling,” she said Wednesday.

Officials across Europe have reported acts of sabotage and mysterious drone flights over airports and military bases. Identifying the culprits is difficult, and Russia denies responsibility.

In a year-end address, Rutte warned that Europe is at imminent risk.

“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” he said.

Meanwhile in Russia, Lavrov said the dispute over Greenland heralded a “deep crisis” for NATO.

“It was hard to imagine before that such a thing could happen,” Lavrov told reporters, as he contemplated the possibility that “one NATO member is going to attack another NATO member.”

Russian state media mocked Europe's “impotent rage” over Trump's designs on Greenland, and Putin's presidential envoy declared that “trans-Atlantic unity is over.”

Doubt about US troops

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is due to meet with his counterparts at NATO on Feb. 12. A year ago, he startled the allies by warning that America’s security priorities lie elsewhere and that Europe must look after itself now.

Security in the Arctic region, where Greenland lies, will be high on the agenda. It’s unclear whether Hegseth will announce a new drawdown of US troops in Europe, who are central to NATO’s deterrence.

Lack of clarity about this has also fueled doubt about the US commitment to its allies. In October, NATO learned that up to 1,500 American troops would be withdrawn from an area bordering Ukraine, angering ally Romania.

A report from the European Union Institute for Security Studies warned last week that although US troops are unlikely to vanish overnight, doubts about US commitment to European security means “the deterrence edifice becomes shakier.”

“Europe is being forced to confront a harsher reality,” wrote the authors, Veronica Anghel and Giuseppe Spatafora. “Adversaries start believing they can probe, sabotage and escalate without triggering a unified response.”

Features

A Bullet Shattered Her Knee. Now a Gaza Teen's Chances of Walking Depend on Rafah Border Crossing

Islam Saleh, who was injured in her left leg in an Israeli strike on a school shelter in Jabalia in 2024, sits in a wheelchair inside her family’s tent in Zawaida, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026, as she awaits permission to travel outside Gaza for treatment. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Islam Saleh, who was injured in her left leg in an Israeli strike on a school shelter in Jabalia in 2024, sits in a wheelchair inside her family’s tent in Zawaida, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026, as she awaits permission to travel outside Gaza for treatment. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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A Bullet Shattered Her Knee. Now a Gaza Teen's Chances of Walking Depend on Rafah Border Crossing

Islam Saleh, who was injured in her left leg in an Israeli strike on a school shelter in Jabalia in 2024, sits in a wheelchair inside her family’s tent in Zawaida, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026, as she awaits permission to travel outside Gaza for treatment. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Islam Saleh, who was injured in her left leg in an Israeli strike on a school shelter in Jabalia in 2024, sits in a wheelchair inside her family’s tent in Zawaida, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026, as she awaits permission to travel outside Gaza for treatment. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Rimas Abu Lehia was wounded five months ago when Israeli troops opened fired toward a crowd of hungry people mobbing an aid truck for food in Gaza and a bullet shattered the 15-year-old Palestinian girl's left knee.

Now her best chance of walking again is surgery abroad. She is on a long list of more than 20,000 Palestinians, including 4,500 children, who have been waiting — some more than a year — for evacuation to get treatment for war wounds or chronic medical conditions, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, The AP news reported.

Their hopes hinge on the reopening of the crucial Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, a key point under the nearly 4-month-old ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Israel has announced the crossing would open in both directions on Sunday.

The Israeli military body in charge of coordinating aid to Gaza said Friday that “limited movement of people only” would be allowed. Earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said Israel will allow 50 patients a day to leave; others have spoken of up to 150 a day.

That's a large jump from about 25 patients a week allowed to leave since the ceasefire began, according to UN figures. But it would still take anywhere from 130 to 400 days of crossings to get everyone in need out.

Abu Lehia said her life depends on the crossing opening.

“I wish I didn’t have to sit in this chair,” she said, crying as she pointed at the wheelchair she relies on to move. “I need help to stand, to dress, to go to the bathroom.”

Evacuations are critical as Gaza hospitals are decimated Israel’s campaign in Gaza after the Hamas October 2023 attack on southern Israel that triggered the war has decimated the territory’s health sector — the few hospitals still working were overwhelmed by casualties. There are shortages of medical supplies and Israel has restricted aid entry.

Hospitals are unable to perform complicated surgeries for many of the wounded, including thousands of amputees, or treat many chronic conditions. Gaza’s single specialized cancer hospital shut down early in the war, and Israeli troops blew it up in early 2025. Without giving evidence, the military said Hamas militants were using it, though it was located in an area under Israeli control for most of the war.

More than 10,000 patients have left Gaza for treatment abroad since the war began, according to the World Health Organization.

After Israeli troops seized and closed the Rafah crossing in May 2024 and until the ceasefire, only around 17 patients a week were evacuated from Gaza, except for a brief surge of more than 200 patients a week during a two-month ceasefire in early 2025, according to WHO figures.

About 440 of those seeking evacuation have life-threatening injuries or diseases, according to the Health Ministry. More than 1,200 patients have died while waiting for evacuation, the ministry said Tuesday.

A UN official said one reason for the slow pace of evacuations has been that many countries are reluctant to accept the patients because Israel would not guarantee they would be allowed to return to the Gaza Strip. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue. The majority of evacuees have gone to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Türkiye.

He said it wasn't clear if that would change with Rafah's opening. Even with "daily or almost daily evacuations,” he said, the number is not very high. Also, Israel has said it will only allow around 50 Palestinians a day to enter Gaza while tens of thousands of Palestinians hope to go back.

Israel has also banned sending patients to hospitals in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem since the war began, the official said — a move that cut off what was previously the main outlet for Palestinians needing treatment unavailable in Gaza.

Five human rights groups have petitioned Israel’s High Court of Justice to remove the ban. The court has not ruled. Still, one cancer patient in Gaza was allowed to travel to the West Bank for treatment on Jan. 11, after the Jerusalem District Court accepted a petition in his case by the Israeli rights group Gisha.

Thousands of cancer patients need evacuation Gaza has more than 11,000 cancer patients and some 75% of the necessary chemotherapy drugs are not available, the Health Ministry said. At least 4,000 cancer patients need urgent treatment abroad, it added.

Ahmed Barham, a 22-year-old university student, has been battling leukemia. He underwent two lymph node removal surgeries in June but the disease is continuing to spread “at an alarming rate,” his father, Mohamed Barham, said.

“There is no treatment available here," the elder Barham said.

His son, who has lost 35 kilograms (77 pounds), got on the urgent list for referral abroad this past week but still doesn’t have a confirmation of travel.

“My son is dying before my eyes,” the father said.

Desperate for Rafah to open Mahmoud Abu Ishaq, a 14-year-old, has been waiting for more than a year on the referral list for treatment abroad.

The roof of his family home collapsed when an Israeli strike hit nearby in the southern town of Beni Suhaila. The boy was injured and suffered a retinal detachment.

“Now he is completely blind,” his father, Fawaz Abu Ishaq said. “We are waiting for the crossing to open.”

Abu Lehia was wounded in August, when she went out from her family tent in the southern city of Khan Younis, looking for her younger brother, Muhannad, she told The Associated Press. The boy had gone out earlier that morning, hoping to get some food off entering aid trucks.

At the time, when Gaza was near famine, large crowds regularly waited for trucks and pulled food boxes off them, and Israeli troops often opened fire on the crowds. The Israeli military said its forces were firing warning shots, but hundreds were killed over the course of several months, according to Gaza health officials.

When Abu Lehia arrived at the edge of a military-held zone from which the trucks were passing, dozens of people were fleeing as Israeli troops fired. A bullet hit Abu Lehia in the knee, and she fell to the ground screaming, she said.

At the nearby Nasser Hospital, she underwent multiple surgeries, but they were unable to repair her knee. Doctors told her she needs knee replacement surgery outside Gaza.

Officials told the family last month that she would be evacuated in January. But so far nothing has happened, said her father, Sarhan Abu Lehia.

“Her condition is getting worse day by day,” he said. “She sits alone and cries.”