What Are Egypt’s Goals for its Military Presence in Somalia?

The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
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What Are Egypt’s Goals for its Military Presence in Somalia?

The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)

A Somali official’s comment about Egyptian military equipment and delegations arriving in Mogadishu has sparked questions about Egypt’s goals in Somalia, especially with rising tensions with Ethiopia.

Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that this move likely aims to strengthen ties by “turning agreements into action.”

They believe Egypt’s military presence will focus on training Somali forces and joining peacekeeping missions to help Somalia fight terrorism and maintain its borders.

Opinions are divided. Some see Egypt’s involvement as routine, while others worry it might escalate tensions with Ethiopia, which is already at odds with both Egypt and Somalia.

According to New Somalia, two Egyptian military planes arrived in Mogadishu on Tuesday, carrying equipment and officers as part of a broader strategy in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is seeking to boost its military through international partnerships.

This happens as Egypt prepares to join the African Union’s new mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to replace the current mission by January 2025.

While Cairo has not commented, Somalia’s Ambassador to Egypt, Ali Abdi Awari, welcomed the Egyptian military presence, noting that Egypt will be the first to support the Somali army after the current African Union forces withdraw.

The ambassador called this a “key step” in carrying out the agreements made during the recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where both countries signed a joint defense deal.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, during a press conference on Aug. 14, announced that Egypt would participate in the renewed peacekeeping mission in Somalia, depending on Somalia’s invitation to do so.

Strategic expert Maj. Gen. Samir Farag says Egypt’s military presence in Somalia has three main goals: Toelp the Somali army improve its skills against al-Shabaab using Egyptian expertise, to support Somalia’s territorial integrity by strengthening its military, and to assist Mogadishu in securing the Suez Canal from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Farag does not believe Egypt’s presence is meant to counterbalance other countries in the region, pointing out that Egypt does not have military bases there.

He expects this move to avoid major tensions, especially since Somalia, an Arab country, has requested Egypt’s peacekeeping support as part of their strategic partnership.



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”