The Israeli right in power, in both its factions (Likud and ideological) is exploiting the attack of October 7, 2023, and turning it into a pretext for liquidating the Palestinian cause. Politically, they categorically oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital on the remaining Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Geographically and ideologically, this refusal requires the re-occupation of the entire West Bank, that is, retaking the territory that is called "Judea and Samaria" in the Talmud and changing its demography.
Indeed, the current Israeli military operation in the northern West Bank is not only about ensuring security. Another dimension of the operation poses a strategic threat to the future of Palestinians in the West Bank. It is part of Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich’s "Decisive Plan,” which has been adopted and is being implemented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The goal is to gradually expand the territory under Israel’s control in the West Bank, culminating in total annexation and a shift in the demographic reality, through a surge in settlements and settlement activity until there are as many settlers as there are Palestinians.
At the political level, the Israeli right unequivocally rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state. On the ground, it has been seeking, for years now, to make the establishment of such a state impossible by carving up territory and shaping demography in the West Bank. This effort amounts to transforming cities and villages into narrow densely populated spaces, which has turned them into disconnected and uninhabitable residential clusters with the goal of pushing Palestinians to emigrate. Experts believe that the "Decisive Plan" aims to temporarily displace residents from the northern West Bank to the center and south, seize more land, accelerate settlement activity- even unauthorized outposts, of which there are now 169- and push the over 750,000 Palestinians in the West Bank with Jordanian national identification numbers to the eastern bank of the Jordan River.
The new map of the Israeli entity, which Netanyahu presented in his latest press conference, does not include the borders of the West Bank, meaning that it is effectively a state obituary for the political borders of the Oslo Accords. It could be called the new, expanded map of Israel, which includes territory annexed from the West Bank, fragments the Gaza Strip, and depopulates large parts of southern Lebanon. This could either require re-occupying the south or realizing objectives that go beyond the bounds of UN Resolution 1701 through military operations.
The expansion of Israel seems to come at the expense first of the Palestinians and their rights, and second of the Lebanese. Lebanon, which is divided, appears bound to suffer repercussions following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. Indeed, the deep political and social divisions among its sects on domestic and foreign policy questions have been aggravated by Hezbollah's support of war and the rhetoric of its elites about the day after the war, which has touched on questions of the demographic weight, the constitution, and arms.
Their statements have raised concerns among the elites of other sects, who have gone back to calling for federalism or even secession, which some consider the most suitable solution for Lebanon's intractable crisis. The notion of coexisting in a single country has been losing support, as the idea of granting each community or sect greater autonomy, within a quasi-shared country where the population clings to the few things that bring them together, gains steam.
Accordingly, with everything from the dissipation of the two-state solution in Palestine to the solution of two or more mini-states gaining momentum in Lebanon, Tel Aviv is seeking to bolster itself demographically, reinforce its security, and impose this expanded Israel. Meanwhile, the Lebanese are rehashing the same disputes that have divided the country since the establishment of Greater Lebanon- some consider it to be too little for their weight, and others feel it has become too small for them.
