It is clear that Lebanon has entered an obscure, dark phase. There is no clear way out, nor an understanding of the costs and losses the country will incur. Indeed, Israel has been attacking Lebanon for two months now, and it is set to continue for the weeks between now and the transfer of power in the US after an unprecedented election in terms of its polarization, results, and political ramifications.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has ignored American pressures (insufficient as they were) to end the war on Gaza and subsequently on Lebanon for over a year, is not about to give this "free gift" to outgoing US President Joe Biden. Netanyahu enjoys a close relationship with President-elect Donald Trump, and he is looking forward to working with him when his new term begin on January 20, 2025.
What matters is that Lebanon is now at the heart of the battle, and its exit will come with heavy costs, some of which it has paid in the form of over 3,000 martyrs, and others that may be paid later, especially with neither of two fighting parties deciding the war: Hezbollah is inflicting notable losses on Israel in the northern regions, targeting military bases and vital facilities, preventing residents from returning to their settlements, and holding off the advance of Israeli forces in the southern villages on the border.
On the other hand, Israel has left a lot of destruction in Lebanon, its cities, and villages, including the southern suburbs of its capital, Beirut. It does not hesitate to target civilians as part of its "military operations." Israel has also assassinated Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, his successor Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, and a large number of first, second, and third-tier leaders, not to mention the pager and walkie-talkie attacks.
Lebanese people, as always, disagree on whether this is "victory and defeat." Hezbollah supporters believe they are defeating Israel, while opponents believe that the entire country is in the midst of a great defeat and setback. A significant portion of these opponents are betting on the gradual "fall" of Hezbollah, with some adjusting their political positions in preparation for a "post-Hezbollah" era.
The truth is that betting on the complete and conclusive collapse of Hezbollah might be an oversimplification, especially since it must be acknowledged that the party has popular, social, and representative institutions and representatives that remain even as it suffers severe blows, its financial capabilities temporarily decline, and most of its institutions struggle.
In any case, it is clear that Lebanon is taking new paths, and the upcoming period will not be easy in terms of managing the political process. Dealing with Hezbollah, whether it is defeated or victorious, will not be easy, especially in light of the sharp domestic divisions among the Lebanese, which have intensified during the "support war" phase and escalated significantly since. These divisions often play out on social media, which frequently turn into battlegrounds that disregard menial ethical standards of ethics and reveal deep-seated animosities that broad segments of the Lebanese population have toward one another.
Right now, the priority remains to reach a ceasefire and end these daily attacks on many Lebanese regions and have resulted in the death of innocent civilians. Additionally, the need to elect a new President for the Republic, a leader who will guide the country through these difficult junctures and bring Lebanon back to the Arab fold, cannot be overlooked.
