President Donald Trump is now working from Florida after he and his senior aides left the White House for the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Crises do not take days off, but they do follow their protagonists, and so the three mediators followed their American partner in Miami. Seeking to capitalize on the momentum of the current moment to make progress on the political efforts led by President Trump, the parties issued a statement declaring their intent to transition to the second phase of the plan for Gaza. Although they did not say so explicitly, they clearly see the significance of the sixth meeting between the chair of the “Board of Peace” and the Israeli prime minister, which will be held at the former’s private resort in Florida.
Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to approve transitioning to the second phase of the ceasefire, stressing the need for the last remaining corpse in Gaza to be handed over. Israel insists that Hamas knows where it is but intends to use it as a bargaining chip. For its part, Hamas insists that it has failed to find the body despite its best efforts, claiming it has turned Gaza upside down searching for it, including in areas under full Israeli control beyond the so-called “yellow line.”
Experienced in dealing with American administrations and familiar with Trump and his volatile temperament, Netanyahu understands that, after the spectacle of all living captives’ return, a single remaining body will not be enough to convince Trump to put the second phase on hold. Trump has a practical solution: the search for the body can continue, and elements of the second phase can be conditioned on its return as the transition proceeds, beginning with the formation of a Board of Peace.
Netanyahu’s plan for Trump’s initiative, which he reluctantly approved, is to nominally support it as he sets boobytraps he can trigger, or threaten to trigger, when needed. He has succeeded in sabotaging Trump’s initiatives every step of the way, not only in Gaza but also in Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.
Israel’s position on Iran has been clear. Iran serves as a screen for Israel’s opposition to the emergence of a Palestinian state and allows Netanyahu - not just through its nuclear program but also its conventional arms - to claim that the Jewish state faces an existential threat. This narrative feeds on the rhetoric of Iran’s leadership, and the current situation in Iran makes strikes tempting, providing Netanyahu with the pretext that it poses a direct threat to regional and international stability.
Before heading to Florida, Netanyahu prepared an old/new dossier on the gravity of the Iranian threat and the need for immediate action. Either the United States supports strikes that Israel carries out in Iran alone, or it takes part in Israel’s military operations like it did in June. In any event, Israel demands American political cover and the weapons and equipment it would need for a military operation of this scale.
In Israel, some believe that focusing on Iran in Florida will have significant implications for Gaza. Here I draw on an analysis published in Maariv, “An Iranian Bomb in the Netanyahu–Trump Meeting.” “Until recently, it had seemed like the Netanyahu–Trump meeting in Florida would focus on the second phase of the process in Gaza. As the day of the meeting approaches, however, it becomes clear that another question is pushing Gaza into the background, at least from Netanyahu’s perspective. Now occupying center stage is Iran, above all its rearmament and Israel’s determination to foil Iran’s efforts.”
It would be a mistake to assume that Netanyahu dictates Trump’s Middle East agenda. It would also be a mistake to allow Netanyahu to tailor American priorities to Israel’s political and military actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Indeed, Iranian influence in all three has been significantly set back. Instead, Arab and Muslim states should prioritize engagement in Gaza alongside Trump. This approach cannot be confined to the 20-point initiative from which the Security Council resolution, rightly considered historic, was derived; it must also account for the timeframe and the maneuvers of Netanyahu.
In Gaza, Arabs and Muslims have become partners, not only by mediating and consolidating the ceasefire, but also in a more fundamental process: resolving the Gaza question through a genuine solution that provides a credible path forward for the Palestinian cause and allows for a serious and radical settlement that satisfies Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims, and the world. Netanyahu is fighting on every front to prevent such a solution from seeing the light of day.
