In some of the ancient civilizations each year was designated with a label rather than a number. For example, there was a Year of the Locust, a Year of the Flood, or a Year of Golden Harvest.
Following that tradition, what label do you think would suit 2025?
One suggestion is: the Year of Impressions. That label could be justified with reference to a dozen abortive attempts at peace-making across the globe, shaky compromises on tariffs and trade, and inertia disguised as super activity. In the year ending, leaders have spent more time flying from one place to another, making speeches, giving TV interviews, cutting ribbons and pressing flesh than coming to grips with core issues here and now.
Impressionism is a school of painting in which real objects are never presented in a photographic way. You see a shape that looks like a tree but isn’t one and a human-like silhouette that might be a Flamenco dancer but isn’t.
Thus, in impressionistic politics you get words and deeds that hint at realities without actually fixing them in a frame.
Some examples: the old-World Order is supposed to be crumbling, but closer examination could be seen stable in its wobbly state. The United States is supposed to be leaving NATO but is actually increasing military presence in Europe. A tantalizing peace deal in Ukraine seems within reach but always slipping away like a lithe fish.
A shiny plan to settle the Israel-Palestine conflict is unveiled but quickly dissolves in deepening shadows.
The Islamic Republic in Iran appears chastened but frequently returns with a more defiant rhetoric.
China is on the edge of invading Taiwan, but each time timidly pulls back. Virtue-signaling was another key feature of 2025 with various countries and dozens of public figures not to mention ant Tom, Dick and Harry beating their chests about this or that real or imaginary victim with calls of genocide, crimes against humanity and boycotts as background music.
In other words, 2025 was a year of political charades.
But, what about 2026?
One obvious answer is that the charade may continue.
Politics is easier to practice as the art of gesticulation than as a craft that Aristotle saw as the apogee of human ingenuity.
Nevertheless, at the risk of being seen as a Panglossian pundit one might hope for 2026 to become a year of clarifications with the impressionistic images drawn here and here fleshing out as tangible realities.
For that hope to come true a number of things must happen. President Donald J Trump ought to spend less time tending his Social Truth account and focus more on a winning strategy for the coming midterm elections. His opponents are already ordering champagne in the expectation that he will lose and become a lame-duck.
However, the opposite seems more likely with Trump winning bug and a Democrat Party paralyzed by its dumb left-wing suffering another historic defeat. As recent elections in Latin America showed, Trumpian politics still has wind in its sails across the globe.
The European Union that may now be labeled “the sick man of Europe” may be forced to re-think its visibly defective structure in order to reclaim a global role commensurate with its economic power and cultural prestige.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to stop collecting air miles and focus more on cleansing his stables and preparing for elections.
There are wounds that cannot be instantly healed with magic potion and the best that can be done is go stop the bleeding.
NATO isn’t dancing towards its grave but to remain relevant it ought to resist temptations to appear as an independent player. In that context Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent speech in which he seemed to believe that NATO is already at war with Russia was a surprising faux-pas from a politician known for his foxy caution.
For his part Russian President Vladimir Putin must realize that the war in Ukraine cannot end on his terms.
In China President Xi Jinping is beginning to realize that he may have other fish to fry than annexing Taiwan. Away from headlines an emerging new business elite cocooned by the Communist Party is beginning to feel strong enough to murmur criticism of aspects of Xi’s policy.
Japan is reorganizing to enter the global scene as a politically active player while unveiling an ambitious program to correct its disastrous demographic deficit.
In the Middle East, talk of a two-state solution will continue pending the emergence of a putative coexistence formula.
Dozens of global companies are already licking their lips thinking of juicy contracts to rebuild Syria.
That, however, won’t be possible without first stabilizing Lebanon as a sovereign state to host the regional headquarters of companies mobilized to rebuild Syria when and if its new government succeeds in running its writ throughout the nation.
Iran remains an enigma wrapped in mystery. In Persian folk-tales protagonists often reach a crossroad called “What Shall I Do Now?”
Still grappling with an identity crisis Türkiye under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems like a fountain, still surging higher and higher. But we know that fountains fall when they reach their highest point of surge.
A caveat: The above must be treated as observations, not predictions.
Happy 2026.
