The course of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon will reshape the Iranian-Israeli conflict. How?
Israel has left Tehran with few options. Let’s not forget that Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 crushed the Palestinian “Fatah” as an armed “struggle” movement.
In recent months, Israel has effectively destroyed Hamas and removed it from the conflict. It has also destroyed most of Hezbollah’s capabilities, including its weaponry and leadership, rendering it ineffective as an armed force that Iran could use to threaten Israel in the coming years. About two decades of Iranian military investment in its external armed network have largely collapsed in the face of the region’s strongest military power.
The difference between the 2006 war and the current one is that Israel has meticulously planned to eliminate Hezbollah’s leadership. While this war is violent and bloody, it is less destructive than the previous one because most of the military strikes have been focused on Hezbollah, its leadership, its weapons, and its popular support base.
Hezbollah is Iran’s most valuable military asset abroad, and its decision to refrain from joining the Gaza war did not shield it from Israeli targeting. Since October, Israel has been determined to dismantle Hezbollah’s capabilities, even though the group did not support Hamas by participating in the attacks. After numerous rounds of strikes, it can be said that most of Hezbollah’s leaders have been killed without fighting, and most of its weapons have been destroyed in their storage facilities. This dire situation is reminiscent of the overwhelming attack during the 1967 war, when Egypt’s air and ground forces were obliterated before they had a chance to act.
The question is: Has the moment arrived that everyone has anticipated for years, where Tehran, the decision-maker, will conclude that it is time to abandon its military assets, specifically Hezbollah?
I firmly believe that Iran has not yet reached a stage where it will give up on Hezbollah, nor will it abandon the group unless there is a significant change in Tehran, which seems unlikely under the current leadership.
It is more likely that Tehran understands and blames Hezbollah’s top leadership for its terrible failure – its security breaches and poor conflict management – and could consider a significant leadership reshuffle if Iran decides to rehabilitate the group. Let’s not forget that Hezbollah performs Iranian missions in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and will likely continue these operations.
Iran is expected to scale back its conflict with Israel, either due to its repeated setbacks – having lost its military wings in Lebanon and Palestine – or in line with its new approach of improving relations with the next US president.
Undoubtedly, the Iranian leadership is well aware that the balance of power with Israel is no longer in its favor. Its third war with Israel has revealed four key truths: First, Israel is capable of waging a prolonged war, and this one is nearing its one-year mark. Second, Israeli public opinion has shifted to support the war, and there is now a national consensus backing it. As a result, Netanyahu has transformed from a disliked figure to a historic leader in the eyes of his people. Third, Israel no longer seems overly concerned with its human losses, as thousands of its citizens have been killed – the highest in its war history – yet it has opened the Lebanese front after Gaza. Fourth, this war has confirmed that Israel has become an unparalleled military and intelligence power, conducting attacks on Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the Houthi-controlled regions of Yemen.
