Since the Israeli war on Gaza following the October 7, 2023 operation carried out by Hamas and other Palestinian factions, "the day after" has been on everyone’s lips, whether in Gaza or now in Lebanon, after Israel launched its war against Hezbollah.
Although this phrase has been repeated throughout the year, nothing tangible has happened. We don’t have a clearer picture of what "the day after" means. We have seen only ideas about it, whether in Gaza or Lebanon. However, the entire region now finds itself on the cusp of the "day after," which will be defined by the results of the US presidential elections.
The world may have already learned who has won the White House, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, by the time this article is published. Or we may not know for days, or a month or two, as happened in the race of 2000 between Democrat Al Gore and former President Bush Jr., who won those elections, as is well known.
One certainty, which has yet to be made public and may not exist as a plan yet, is the fate and outcomes of these crises in our region. Is there a day after the war in Gaza or Lebanon? Is there a vision for dealing with the escalation between Israel and Iran?
Does either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority have a clear plan to deal with the new US president, whoever it may be? Is there a plan or vision in Lebanon for how to deal with Israel’s war on Hezbollah and its repercussions on the state and communities of Lebanon?
Does Iran have a vision for dealing with the next US president? Or is everyone planning to "wait and see?” Does Tehran have secret back channels with the presidential candidates, as it did at the time of the American hostage crisis in Tehran before the elections that brought Reagan to the presidency?
Unfortunately, and especially in the cases of Gaza and Lebanon, it is Israel, specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has a vision for the "day after." Netanyahu will work on two different but interconnected tracks.
If he finds a "personal ally" in the White House, Netanyahu knows exactly what to do: perpetuate his war and prepare the ground to implement his pre-set plans; indeed, as is publicly known, he has been in contact with former president Trump.
If Harris wins, Netanyahu's plan for that "next day" would certainly entail immediate escalation to impose a new reality that she cannot ignore after her inauguration in January.
Netanyahu would be in a stronger position, regardless of who wins the White House, if Iran actually retaliates to Israel’s retaliation and launches a military attack against Israel, whether from Iran itself or, as is currently rumored, from Iraq.
In that case, the "day after" would certainly go according to plan for Netanyahu, regardless of who wins the race. Moreover, if it occurs, such an attack would cement Netanyahu’s position within Israel itself, compelling the next US president, whoever it may be, to support him.
Accordingly, we are now in a critical phase with dangerous repercussions for the entire region.
