To all sides of the struggle, the current conflict unfolding in our region boils down to a battle over one word: “victory.” It doesn’t matter whether this victory is personal, partisan, or a question of influence.
What we know for sure, from recent developments, is that none of the parties involved seek a victory for statehood, nor to save lives, reinforce national values and citizenship, or achieve peace. Instead, they are seeking short-term victories that bring no durable benefits to the region, nor allow the countries involved to move forward.
Since he emerged on the political scene, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been caught in a vicious cycle with a narrow horizon, pursuing short-term solutions - that ultimately fail - so that he can remain in the political scene and in power.
Netanyahu empowered both Hamas and Hezbollah with his petty intrigue to avoid moving forward with the peace process, which is inevitable and has no alternative. He has done this since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, constantly correcting mistakes with even bigger ones.
Netanyahu empowered Hamas in Gaza to undermine the Palestinian Authority and hollow out the Oslo Accords, reveling in the escalation of intra-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu has had many partners, and history will name them sooner or later.
He also empowered Hezbollah by granting it a false narrative of legitimacy as a “resistance” movement. Yet, after suffering from the party’s actions, particularly following October 7, he decided to deliver a crippling blow, but once again, without a clear vision. Thus, Netanyahu continues to run around in the same futile circles.
Hamas, for its part, has not sought to bring about the long-awaited Palestinian state, Palestinian unity, or to protect Gaza’s vulnerable population. Instead, it has persisted in reckless misadventure, leading to the fifth devastating war in Gaza. Today, its conception of “victory” is merely ensuring the survival of what remains of its leadership.
Hezbollah, deludedly pursuing the “unity of fronts” strategy, sought a victory that would allow for consolidating its dominance over Lebanon and its institutions under the guise of resistance. However, it undertook a suicidal step without considering its consequences, plunging Lebanon into the unknown. The party has failed to grasp that the post-October 7 era is vastly different from that which came before it.
Today, Hezbollah is looking for a phrase or clause in the US envoy’s statements that allows for proclaiming now another hollow victory like its previous so-called “divine victory.” Much like most Lebanese politicians, it seeks a bogus victory to maintain its position in the game, oblivious to the fact that times have changed.
A senior Lebanese official once encapsulated the state of Lebanese politics in a discussion we were having: “To understand Lebanon, remember this: in Lebanon, we say one thing, think another and do something entirely different.” This fact has been recognized by the wisest leaders in the region, who have no patience for those toying with stability, lives and resources.
Is it solely about Lebanon and Israel? Certainly not. Every party that has sought influence or a fabricated role now finds itself in trouble, chasing a deluded “victory” that is, at best, a face-saving effort.
We must not let the campaigns of coordinated regional disinformation from all sides distract us from recognizing the evident, scandalous and glaring losses, no matter how adamantly others insist on the contrary.
