Israel and Hamas once again appear to be inching toward a ceasefire that could wind down the 15-month war in Gaza and bring home dozens of Israelis held hostage there.
Both Israel and Hamas are under pressure from outgoing US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to reach a deal before the Jan. 20 inauguration. But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements.
The latest round of negotiations has bogged down over the names of hostages to be released in a first phase, according to Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations.
Israel wants assurances that the hostages are alive, while Hamas says that after months of heavy fighting, it isn't sure who is alive or dead.
Other hurdles remain.
The first phase, expected to last for six to eight weeks, would also include a halt in fighting, a release of Palestinian prisoners and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to the officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war, and talks on reconstruction and who will govern Gaza going forward.
“If we don’t get it across the finish line in the next two weeks, I’m confident that it will get to completion at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Seoul on Monday.
Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:
The release of hostages from Gaza
During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages into Gaza. A truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.
Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third of whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.
The first batch of hostages to be released is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions, according to the Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials.
On Monday, Hamas released a list of 34 names of hostages it said were slated for release. An Egyptian official confirmed the list had been the focus of recent discussions.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the names were from a list Israel had submitted months ago. “As of now, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list,” it said.
An Israeli official said the current impasse was due to Hamas' refusal to provide information on the conditions of the hostages, while another official said the departure of the head of the Mossad intelligence agency for negotiations in Qatar was on hold.
A Hamas official, meanwhile, said that “no one knows” the conditions of all of the hostages. Hamas officials have said that due to the war, they cannot provide a full accounting until there is a truce.
Since the war began, over 45,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to local health authorities, who say women and children make up more than half of those killed. They do not say how many of the dead were fighters.
Pausing the war or ending it?
Families of hostages reacted angrily to reports of the phased approach, saying the government should instead be pursuing a deal that releases all the captives at once. They say time is running out to bring people home safely.
“This morning, I and everyone in Israel woke up and discovered that the state of Israel has put together a Schindler's List — 34 people who will be able to hug their families again, and 66 others whose fate will be sealed,” said Yotam Cohen, whose brother Nimrod, an Israeli soldier held hostage, did not appear on the published list.
Netanyahu has said he supports a partial deal that pauses the war, but he has rejected Hamas' demands for a full Israeli withdrawal that would end the war. Netanyahu has vowed to continue fighting until he achieves “total victory” — including the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities.
Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hamas. But the group continues to stage attacks in Gaza and to fire rockets into Israel. That could portend an open-ended war that could drag on for months or years.
The Hostages Forum, a grassroots group representing many hostage families, said it was time for a comprehensive deal.
“We know more than half are still alive and need immediate rehabilitation, while those who were murdered must be returned for proper burial,” it said. “We have no more time to waste. A hostage ceasefire agreement must be sealed now!”
The release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel
As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians, including dozens who were convicted in bloody attacks.
Israel has a history of large-scale prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the sides have disagreed over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included. Israeli officials have ruled out the release of Marwan Barghouti, who tops Hamas' wish list.
Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks who was killed by Israel in October.
The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to UN estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population.
During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say.
