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IMF Chief Says Global Economy Doing ‘Better than Feared,’ Risks Remain

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
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IMF Chief Says Global Economy Doing ‘Better than Feared,’ Risks Remain

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the Milken Institute in Washington, DC USA, 08 October 2025. (EPA)

The world economy has proven more resilient than expected despite acute strains from multiple shocks, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, forecasting only a slight slowing of global growth this year and in 2026.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the US economy had dodged a recession feared by many experts just six months ago.

The US economy and many others had held up, given better policies, a more adaptable private sector, less severe import tariffs than feared - at least for now - and supportive financial conditions, according to a text of her remarks to an event at the Milken Institute in Washington.

"We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks," Georgieva said in a preview of the IMF's upcoming World Economic Outlook.

In July, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% for 2026. It will release a fresh outlook next Tuesday during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.

The gathering takes place at a time when US President Donald Trump has upended global trade with steep tariffs and cracked down on immigration, and artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming technology and the outlook for labor.

The world economy is doing "better than feared, but worse than needed," Georgieva said, noting that the IMF was forecasting global growth of roughly 3% over the medium-term, well below the 3.7% forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Georgieva cited deep undercurrents of marginalization, discontent and hardship around the world, and said the global economy faced an array of risks.

Uncertainty is at exceptionally high levels and continuing to climb, while demand for gold - a traditional safe-haven asset for investors - is surging, Georgieva said, adding that holdings of monetary gold now exceeded 20% of the world's official reserves.

The US tariff shock has been less severe than initially announced in April, with the US trade-weighted tariff rate now around 17.5%, down from 23% in April, and countries largely skipping retaliatory tariffs.

But US tariff rates keep changing, and US inflation could rise if companies started to pass through more of the cost of tariffs, or if a flood of goods previously headed for the US triggered a second round of tariff hikes elsewhere.

Financial market valuations are also heading toward levels last seen during the internet-related bullishness 25 years ago, she said. An abrupt shift in sentiment - such as what happened during the dot.com crash of March 2000 - could drag down world growth, making life especially tough for developing countries.

"Buckle up," Georgieva said, adding, "Uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay."

GEORGIEVA WARNS ON DEBT LEVELS

The IMF chief urged countries to durably lift growth by boosting private-sector productivity, consolidating fiscal spending and addressing excessive imbalances, allowing them to rebuild their buffers to prepare for the next crisis.

Global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, Georgieva said.

Competition is key, along with free-market-friendly property rights, rule of law, strong financial sector oversights and accountable institutions.

In Asia, countries need to deepen trade and carry out reforms to strengthen the service sector, Georgieva said. A push to lower non-tariff barriers and boost regional integration could lift gross domestic product by 1.8% in the long run.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, business-friendly reforms could boost the real GDP per capita of the median African country by more than 10%. Europe should forge ahead with building a single market, which could help it catch up with the dynamism of the US private sector, she said.

The US should take "sustained action" to lower its federal debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio on track to exceed its all-time high after World War Two, Georgieva said. It should also work to boost household saving, such as through favorable treatment of retirement savings.

China also has work to do, including boosting fiscal spending on social safety nets and property sector clean-up, while cutting spending on industrial policy initiatives, she said.

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Business

IMF Chief Urges US and Wealthy Nations to Rein in Debt to Ease Global Economic Pressure

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, 14 October 2026. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, 14 October 2026. (EPA)
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IMF Chief Urges US and Wealthy Nations to Rein in Debt to Ease Global Economic Pressure

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, 14 October 2026. (EPA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, 14 October 2026. (EPA)

The US and other wealthy nations need to urgently tackle mounting global debt levels that are weighing most heavily on low-income countries and straining the global financial system, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other US leaders recognize that the federal deficit and national debt are too high. But economic growth alone would not be enough to address the country’s more than $40 trillion in national debt, she said.

Meanwhile, rising bond yields, reflecting higher premiums demanded by investors for taking on greater risk, have been disrupting financial markets.

“We believe that growth, of course, helps, but it cannot deliver fast enough the necessary adjustments,” Georgieva said at the autumn meeting of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.

“There is no magic,” she said, adding that other measures would be needed. “You have to go in a direction of tightening, bringing it down, bringing the deficit down.”

‘Fiscal consolidation’ faces challenges

Rising debt levels and global inflation, partly resulting from high energy costs due to the Iran war, have pushed interest rates to multidecade highs, adding to the burdens of the world’s poorest nations.

Efforts to bring debt under control with what Georgieva and other experts call “fiscal consolidation” have suffered setbacks from heavy spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and since.

“Fiscal risks are rising, and a proper reaction is largely absent in many countries,” said Rodrigo Valdes, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. “And in major advanced economies, the effect of fiscal indiscipline does not stop at the border. It travels to the rest of the world.”

“Among the world’s poorest countries, interest payments have reached historic highs relative to revenue, and declining amounts of aid are creating gaps that some countries have been unable to finance,” the IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor said.

That is forcing countries to make hard choices between supporting their most vulnerable people and meeting their debt repayment obligations.

“The Global South is paying the price for rising interest rates in wealthier countries,” UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said at an event on the sidelines of the IMF meetings.

“We need a new deal on debt, a deal that supports countries to repay over longer time horizons and, crucially, refinancing with better rates to give developing countries precious fiscal space,” he said.

Nations need help with job creation and investment

The median developing country pays three times as much in interest as developed countries, said Alexander De Croo, former Belgian prime minister and administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

On average, nearly 10% of government spending goes toward debt repayments. High fuel and fertilizer prices, the effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon and rising borrowing costs have left many low-income countries with little room to recover.

“I mean, we don’t see really a light at the end of the tunnel,” De Croo told The Associated Press.

Creating jobs is another top priority, particularly as the growing use of artificial intelligence threatens to make many traditional occupations obsolete. More than 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the global workforce over the next decade or so, while forecasts suggest only 400 million net new jobs will be created.

The UNDP this week announced its “Jobs for Prosperity” initiative to bring together governments, development banks — such as the World Bank — and private businesses to encourage investment in sectors such as tourism, healthcare and food processing.

The initiative and related efforts will help countries attract investment by strengthening governance and policies and developing pipelines of “investible projects,” De Croo said.

“These are things that are feasible. It’s been proven that you can do it in many places of the world,” he added.

Separately, the IMF, Bank of Thailand and World Bank Group announced a “Bangkok Blueprint” on Wednesday to combat cybercrime, financial fraud and online scams.

The announcement came a day after cyberattacks caused refrigeration systems to overheat at hundreds of stores in France.

Business

Unified Trade, Export Body to Expand Saudi Products’ Global Reach

Containers lined up at a Saudi port (SPA)
Containers lined up at a Saudi port (SPA)
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Unified Trade, Export Body to Expand Saudi Products’ Global Reach

Containers lined up at a Saudi port (SPA)
Containers lined up at a Saudi port (SPA)

The decision to merge the General Authority for Foreign Trade and the Saudi Export Development Authority into a single body, the General Authority for Foreign Trade and Export, aims to strengthen institutional integration and unify efforts to support Saudi exports and expand the presence of Saudi products in global markets.

The cabinet, chaired by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, approved the merger and ordered the necessary preparations, with matters requiring regulatory action to be submitted within 180 days.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, minister of industry and mineral resources, will chair the new authority’s board, with the commerce minister serving as deputy chairman.

The move comes as foreign trade assumes growing importance as a driver of economic growth, a means of making Saudi products more competitive and a gateway for domestic businesses to reach broader international markets.

Support for exporters

Consolidating responsibilities and coordinating initiatives is expected to improve efficiency, expand access to foreign markets and develop tools to support exporters, in line with goals to diversify the Saudi economy and increase the contribution of non-oil exports to economic growth.

Specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat that, as merger requirements are completed within 180 days, attention will turn to the new authority’s operations, performance indicators and ability to translate organizational integration into broader export opportunities and lasting gains for the Saudi economy, while supporting the private sector by creating more opportunities for domestic companies.

Small and medium-sized enterprises

Osama bin Ghanem Al-Obaidi, a consultant and professor of commercial law, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the next phase, following the merger of the two authorities, “requires a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises, helping them overcome export challenges and build lasting international trade partnerships.”

It also requires “developing clear performance indicators that measure growth in non-oil exports, track the number of new markets reached by Saudi products and assess how much exporters benefit from the services provided,” Al-Obaidi said.

He said the decision brings together efforts to open markets and enable Saudi products to reach them, “in a step that strengthens their competitiveness and shortens their path to global markets.”

The move “simplifies procedures and facilitates trade by improving integration between the two bodies and developing a unified platform that saves users time and money, strengthening the kingdom’s economic competitiveness and attracting more domestic and foreign investment,” he added.

“In my view, the new authority’s success will be measured by the value it adds to the national economy, rather than simply by the consolidation of organizational structures,” Al-Obaidi said.

“The more institutional integration translates into increased export opportunities, stronger competitiveness for Saudi products and diversified sources of income, the closer this step will come to achieving its economic objectives, supporting Vision 2030 goals and strengthening the kingdom’s position in global trade.”

Strategic dimensions

Economic researcher and technology consultant Fadwa Al-Bawardi said the merger represents a pivotal organizational shift, reflecting the national drive to strengthen trade governance and unify efforts to integrate trade policy with export development.

The decision’s strategic implications extend beyond administrative restructuring, she said. The new body will provide a vital bridge between the opening of global markets and the strengthening of the production capabilities of Saudi contractors and companies.

Investors are seeking more than new sales outlets, Al-Bawardi told Asharq Al-Awsat. They also want to build a strong production base that encourages exports.

She said the new body’s real challenge lies in “overcoming logistical and regulatory obstacles and making Saudi products more competitive in international trade.”

Trade disputes and restrictions

“The competitive presence of Saudi goods and services in global markets does not depend on quality alone,” Al-Bawardi said.

“It also requires an integrated support system that facilitates market access, addresses trade disputes and restrictions, and steps up international promotion initiatives, giving domestic exporters the support they need to compete with confidence and capability.”

She said the true measure of the move’s success would be “the new structure’s ability to translate institutional consolidation into a tangible economic impact, measured by simpler procedures, unified service platforms and faster responses to the needs of businesses and domestic factories, as well as entry into promising markets that expand the presence of non-oil exports.”

Business

Saudi TAQA Expands Int’l Reach From Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan to Syria

A technician monitors TAQA’s field operations. (Company handout)
A technician monitors TAQA’s field operations. (Company handout)
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Saudi TAQA Expands Int’l Reach From Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan to Syria

A technician monitors TAQA’s field operations. (Company handout)
A technician monitors TAQA’s field operations. (Company handout)

Saudi Arabia’s Industrialization and Energy Services Company (TAQA) is expanding in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Syria as it develops the well solutions and specialized technologies driving its growth.

The company, 54% owned by the Public Investment Fund, uses Saudi Arabia as its main operating hub and launchpad for international expansion.

Chief Executive Adel Al-Ghadhban told Asharq Al-Awsat in exclusive comments during the World Petroleum Congress that TAQA was building its presence in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and establishing operations in Syria.

It has set up a legal entity in Azerbaijan and qualified as a supplier to state-owned SOCAR. In Kazakhstan, registration and qualification procedures have begun with several customers.

Cooperation with SOCAR covers opportunities in oil and gas field operations and services, as well as 'well services and technologies,' Al-Ghadhban said.

TAQA has moved into practical steps to establish itself in Azerbaijan, completing incorporation procedures and registering as a qualified supplier.

Asked about project budgets and timelines, he said the memorandum of understanding set a framework for cooperation, separate from any contracts or projects that might follow. TAQA prefers to announce each project once its scope is finalized and commercial arrangements are approved.

The Caspian region and Central Asia offer significant growth opportunities, he said. TAQA’s international strategy targets markets where it can add value and build sustainable businesses, rather than expand for geographic reach alone.

Well solutions drive growth

Well solutions are TAQA’s main growth engine, Al-Ghadhban said. They span drilling, well completion and intervention, well testing, wireline services, cementing, stimulation and early production facilities.

The company performed strongly in 2025 in areas including well testing, completion and wireline services. It also advanced the development and commercialization of drilling, completion and well intervention technologies.

TAQA is integrating its services and technologies to cover multiple stages of a well’s life cycle. The focus is on directing investment toward higher-value services, bringing technologies to market faster and expanding selectively into markets offering profitable, sustainable growth.

Digitalization and innovation

TAQA sees innovation and advanced technologies as pillars of growth, supported by its innovation center in Dhahran Techno Valley and specialized centers developing drilling, completion and well intervention products.

Development starts with identifying customers’ challenges, Al-Ghadhban said. The company then develops, tests and qualifies solutions in the field before turning them into products and technologies that can be scaled commercially.

Its digitalization efforts focus on data, artificial intelligence and automation in research and development projects, working with customers, industry partners and academic institutions.

Technology investments aim to make operations more efficient, improve well performance and reduce time, total costs and operational risks for customers.

TAQA prefers to withhold specific figures for future investment until plans and budgets are approved, he said.

Supply chain resilience

Geopolitical challenges have sharpened TAQA’s focus on resilience, operational discipline and cost competitiveness as it faces pressures on operating costs and supply chains, Al-Ghadhban said.

The company has updated its operating model to clarify responsibilities, speed up decisions and simplify processes. It has also improved the use of assets and resources and strengthened supplier partnerships.

For some product lines, TAQA has diversified its sources of production and research and development to strengthen supply chain resilience and manufacturing efficiency.

Efficiency means more than cutting expenses, Al-Ghadhban said. It also requires improving how work is carried out and capital is allocated, while balancing competitiveness and service continuity with safety, quality and reliability.

About TAQA

Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Dhahran, TAQA provides integrated oil and gas well solutions. Its services include drilling, well completion and intervention, well testing, wireline logging, cementing, hydraulic fracturing and well integrity.

The company operates in more than 20 countries and employs more than 5,500 people. Its portfolio spans drilling, geophysical services and surveying, with companies including Arabian Drilling, the Arabian Geophysical and Surveying Company (ARGAS).