Lebanon’s Drug Empire Faces Beginning of Its End

A Saudi Anti-Narcotics official displays bags of Captagon pills seized in Jeddah hidden inside a shipment of pomegranates, April 25 (AFP)
A Saudi Anti-Narcotics official displays bags of Captagon pills seized in Jeddah hidden inside a shipment of pomegranates, April 25 (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Drug Empire Faces Beginning of Its End

A Saudi Anti-Narcotics official displays bags of Captagon pills seized in Jeddah hidden inside a shipment of pomegranates, April 25 (AFP)
A Saudi Anti-Narcotics official displays bags of Captagon pills seized in Jeddah hidden inside a shipment of pomegranates, April 25 (AFP)

A sense of optimism is growing within Lebanon’s security establishment that 2026 could mark the end of the country’s “drug world,” a shadow economy born out of the Lebanese civil war and fueled by the conflicts that followed.

Those wars created an ideal environment for the trade to flourish, turning Lebanon and Syria into hubs for narcotics trafficking that spread across borders through Jordan and into the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia.

The Kingdom is a main target of traffickers who moved their illicit goods along smuggling routes known as “tracks,” amassing fortunes that went on to finance states and militias.

This optimism stems from major developments along the Lebanese-Syrian border following the fall of the previous Syrian regime and the withdrawal of the army’s elite Fourth Division, which had long maintained control there.

The departure of that force led to the expulsion of drug traffickers who had operated from what security officials called the “gray zone” inside Syrian territory.

A senior Lebanese security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the war in Syria had been “the spark that ignited the drug trade,” while the war’s end has signaled “the beginning of its demise,” after coordinated operations struck the trade at every level, from production and storage to distribution.

The border areas on the Syrian side had served as a safe haven for drug traffickers between 2023 and 2024. Many had settled in villages, buying houses under the protection of Syrian security forces, particularly the Fourth Division, which acted as their commercial partner. With the regime’s collapse, the traffickers fled back to Lebanon, where they became easy prey for the Lebanese army. Military intelligence units pursued them relentlessly — arresting some, killing others.

Development as a Weapon

According to Lebanese security assessments, a lasting end to the drug trade will require not only security pressure but also “a dose of development” in Lebanon’s deprived regions, mainly the Bekaa Valley and Akkar.

Officials say development projects must complement the army’s and security forces’ relentless crackdowns by addressing the deep poverty that traffickers have long exploited to justify their activities and recruit locals.

For decades, the smuggling routes that run through these neglected areas have shaped livelihoods. Some traffickers built reputations as “Robin Hoods,” showering locals with gifts and grants in exchange for silence and loyalty. But their generosity comes at a price.

A Lebanese security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that one well-known drug lord, for example, had paid the tuition fees of several university students — only to later turn them into campus distributors.

The Boom Years and the Rise of ‘Robin Hood’

Before the Syrian crisis, Lebanon’s drug trade was estimated at around 1.3 million pills. That figure surged to three million during the war, before dropping to about 400,000.

“They were outlaws who rose to power — and we turned them back into outlaws,” a Lebanese security official said.

The “golden age” of drug traffickers in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley returned after the country’s financial collapse in late 2019, which coincided with a crippling political paralysis following the end of former President Michel Aoun’s term and delays in electing his successor.

Traffickers seized on the despair of impoverished locals in regions long neglected by the state, especially in areas where chronic deprivation had persisted well before the currency crash. Residents say political leaders’ neglect had become a way of life.

Many young men fell into the grip of the trade, especially after the rise of the “new star” of the drug world — Captagon — which flooded Lebanon as both a manufactured and exported product after 2011, directly linked to the Syrian conflict.

Syrian traffickers and influential figures in government and security circles on both sides of the porous Lebanese-Syrian border played key roles.

The major dealers soon gained social, and at times political, influence. Some ran for or considered running in elections. Others portrayed themselves as benevolent outlaws, “Robin Hoods” who took from the rich and gave to the poor.

They funded irrigation and electricity projects, offered social assistance, mediated legal troubles for locals, and used their connections with politicians to secure jobs.

In effect, their mini-state kept expanding and benefiting from overlaps with powerful groups operating on both sides of the border.

The equation was simple: export drugs to the “enemy camp” to earn foreign currency, while the lucrative commissions from this trade helped finance a state — or a quasi-state.

As one trafficker boasted, “I only need one shipment out of ten to make it through — and I’m set.”

The Captagon Story

Captagon is often described as a “revolution” in the drug world. Unlike cannabis or opium, it needs no farmland. It is not bound by seasons, and its production, packaging, and smuggling are easy to conceal, often escaping traditional detection methods used by scanners and police dogs.

But while distribution and smuggling can be kept secret, production is harder to hide. Manufacturing Captagon requires specialized laboratories that emit strong, unpleasant odors during the process, making concealment difficult.

To overcome that, producers often lured powerful figures with money and convinced property owners in remote areas to rent out their buildings.

Traffickers also benefited from operating in what they called “the gray zone,” a loophole in countries that had not yet classified Captagon as an illegal narcotic, including Lebanon itself.

When security forces arrested traffickers, they often charged them with possessing other contraband items, such as weapons or different drugs, rather than Captagon itself.

The ‘Kings of the Tracks’ and the Secret Formulas

Captagon first spread in Iraq and Syria, where long-distance truck drivers used it to stay awake and alert during grueling journeys. By the early 2000s, it had gained recognition as a recreational drug. Between 2007 and 2011, a new class of traffickers emerged — the so-called “kings of the tracks” — who controlled the routes carrying Captagon from factories to consumers, particularly across the Gulf.

Production initially centered in border areas on the Syrian side. But as the Syrian conflict escalated, many traffickers relocated to Lebanon, setting up factories in partnership with local counterparts.

Interestingly, the Syrian traffickers guarded their manufacturing secrets closely, never sharing the exact formula with their Lebanese partners. Lebanese military intelligence — which spearheaded operations in the Bekaa Valley and border regions — later obtained confessions from captured dealers confirming this. Some Lebanese producers eventually discovered the formula, or came close enough to replicate it, leading to a surge in “knockoff” pills of lower quality.

The profits were enormous. A single pill costing less than 20 cents to make could sell for $20 — and up to $50 at retail prices. The huge margins drew new players into the trade.

When the war broke out in Syria, extremist groups took over border zones and destroyed the factories. Many traffickers fled to government-held areas or to Lebanon. But between 2012 and 2014, those same groups realized the profit potential and turned to Captagon as a major source of funding.

The years 2012 to 2023 marked the height of Captagon’s boom. Production and trafficking flourished, dominated by four or five top smugglers who monopolized the Gulf trade. Rivalries grew, with some traffickers roasting the pills to resemble desert sand, while others added logos and colors to give their products distinctive “brands.”

The Syrian Regime’s Entry — and Wagner’s Role

By mid-2012, influential figures within the Syrian regime had entered the Captagon trade. They did not take part directly in production or distribution but facilitated the movement of shipments across Syrian territory by issuing “permits” that allowed trucks to pass in exchange for fixed fees per crate.

At the time, Captagon traffickers traveled freely around the world, yet Beirut remained their favorite destination. Many opened restaurants and cafés in the Lebanese capital that served as perfect fronts for laundering drug money.

The production and distribution process followed several stages, starting with the purchase of raw materials.

Most materials were legally available on the market because they had legitimate uses in medicine, cleaning agents, pesticides, and fertilizers.

Traffickers bought them through supermarket owners or importers, paying premium prices to ensure cooperation. Even the machinery required for production was easy to acquire, as it was commonly used by pharmaceutical and chemical companies.

Most factories were based in Syrian border regions, but during the war, some were moved into Lebanon’s rugged mountains.

Remote houses, abandoned workshops, and livestock farms were rented at high prices and converted into makeshift labs. Some Syrian villages, such as Jarmash, became known as safe havens for dealers fleeing Lebanese security forces.

During the Syrian war, the trade thrived as never before. The Lebanese-Syrian and Syrian-Jordanian borders slipped out of government control, and despite the fighting, traffickers maintained good relations with all sides.

Everyone profited — from local militias to the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah — all of whom were waging difficult battles and relied on the same smuggling routes used for narcotics to move weapons, equipment, and sometimes fighters into besieged areas.

Russia’s Wagner Group even established an air bridge to transport Captagon to Libya, charging around $5,000 per crate.

Between 2014 and 2020, many traffickers relocated to Lebanon, exploiting the turmoil in border areas seized by extremist factions and Lebanon’s own deep political divisions. With economic hardship spreading, more people turned to the trade, resulting in a flood of lower-quality products.

During that period, the Lebanese army’s grip on the border weakened, especially after it suffered losses and kidnappings at the hands of militant groups. Smugglers took advantage, carving out their own routes and, in some cases, buying influence in politics by financing or backing candidates in elections.

The Declaration of the War on Drugs

As Lebanon’s security situation began to stabilize and drug traffickers grew bolder, the Lebanese authorities declared war on narcotics.

In the Bekaa Valley and along the Syrian border, the Lebanese army took the lead, while the Internal Security Forces assumed responsibility for operations inside the country and at ports.

Army intelligence spearheaded the campaign in the Bekaa, raiding Captagon factories and dismantling production lines. But once-peaceful traffickers turned violent. Few raids ended without clashes between the army and drug gangs. The fugitives then retreated deep into the rugged mountain areas, where troops pursued them relentlessly.

A senior security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that traffickers had offered large bribes to officers and anti-narcotics officials to halt operations, especially after the first year of confrontations inflicted losses estimated at around $200 million.

To evade army raids, traffickers shifted to using mobile labs mounted on trucks that could be moved quickly between sites. Yet the design had a fatal flaw: once production began, the trucks became slow and vulnerable to detection.

The War on Kingpins and the Battle of Abu Sallah

Lebanon’s war on drugs soon evolved into a war on the kingpins themselves. The army began targeting major gang leaders, even carrying out drone and airstrikes against some of them.

One of the most dramatic operations was the raid targeting the country’s most notorious drug lord in the Bekaa Valley, known as Abu Sallah, whose real name is Ali Mounzer Zeaiter. The raid sent a clear message to the underworld, forcing many traffickers to disappear under mounting security pressure.

Zeaiter earned the nickname Abu Sallah early in his career, when he would lower a basket tied to a rope from his apartment balcony to collect cash and deliver drugs to customers — a primitive system that became his signature. Operating from Beirut’s eastern suburbs, he later built a vast network and amassed enough power to command what security sources described as a small private army of gunmen and dealers.

When army intelligence planned to capture him, they discovered he had set up 346 surveillance points to protect himself, a mix of cameras mounted on poles and disguised “express cafés” along every road leading to his residence, designed to alert him to any approaching force.

After eight months of planning, the army launched the operation during a dinner Abu Sallah was hosting for his associates. Intelligence officers managed to take control of some surveillance cameras and redirect them away from the target area. The head of army intelligence in the Bekaa even helped create a diversion by taking his wife to a restaurant in Beirut known to be monitored by Abu Sallah’s informants.

The operation was conducted under strict secrecy and only seven people knew of the plan. The target was code-named “Marlboro” to prevent any leaks.

Abu Sallah escaped the ambush by using his wife as a human shield, killing a soldier, and fleeing toward Syria. He later returned after the regime’s collapse, only to be tracked down by the army, which killed him in an airstrike on his vehicle.

According to Lebanese security assessments, Abu Sallah had been the country’s number one trafficker. He had extensive influence in universities and schools — his prime retail markets — where he paid tuition fees for students or enrolled his own associates to promote drugs among their peers.



Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)

After more than a month of being stalked by targeted assassinations, Iran's leadership has adopted a new tactic to show it is still in control - with senior officials walking openly in the streets among small crowds who have gathered in support of the regime.

In recent days, Iran's president and foreign minister have separately mixed with groups of several hundred people in central Tehran. On Tuesday, state television aired footage of the two posing for selfies, talking to members of the public and shaking hands with supporters who had gathered in public areas.

According to insiders and analysts, the appearances are part of a calculated effort by Iran's theocratic leadership to project resilience and authority — not only over the vital Strait of Hormuz but also over the population — despite a sustained US-Israeli campaign aimed at "obliterating" it.

One insider close to the hardline establishment said such public outings are intended to show that the regime is "unshaken by strikes and that it remains in control and vigilant" as the war grinds on.

The US-Israeli war ‌on Iran began on ‌February 28 with the killing of veteran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior military ‌commanders ⁠in waves of ⁠strikes that have since continued to target top officials.

Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since taking over on March 8 from his father. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, meanwhile, was removed from Israel's hit list amid mediation efforts last month, including by Pakistan, to bring Tehran and Washington together for talks to end the war.

Talks aimed at ending the war have since appeared to have petered out, as Tehran brands US peace proposals "unrealistic". Against that backdrop, recent public appearances by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araqchi appear designed to project defiance, if not a convincing display of public support.

A senior Iranian source said officials' public presence demonstrates that "the establishment is not intimidated by Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian ⁠figures".

Asked whether Iran's foreign minister or president were on any sort of kill list, an Israeli ‌military spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, said on Friday he would not "speak about specific personnel."

NIGHTLY RALLIES TO ‌SHOW RESILIENCE

Despite widespread destruction, Tehran appears emboldened by surviving weeks of intense US-Israeli attacks, firing on Gulf countries hosting US troops and demonstrating its ability ‌to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, without offering a timeline ‌for ending hostilities. Tehran responded by warning the United States and Israel that "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks were in store.

Encouraged by clerical rulers, supporters of the regime take to the streets each night, filling public squares to show loyalty even as bombs rain down across the country.

Analysts say the establishment is also seeking to raise the "political and reputational" cost of the strikes at a time when civilian casualties are deeply disturbing for Iranians.

Omid Memarian, ‌a senior Iran analyst at DAWN, a Washington-based think tank, said the decision to send officials into gatherings reflects a layered strategy, including an effort to sustain the morale of core supporters ⁠at a moment of acute pressure.

"The system ⁠relies heavily on this base; if its supporters withdraw from public space, its ability to project control and authority weakens significantly," Memarian said.

Speaking to state television, some in the crowds voice unwavering loyalty to Iran's leadership; others oppose the bombing of their country regardless of politics; and some have a stake in the system, including government employees, students and others whose livelihoods are tied to it.

Hadi Ghaemi, head of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran, said the establishment is using such loyal crowds as human shields to raise the cost of any assassination attempts.

"By being in the middle of large crowds they have protections that would make Israeli-American attacks against them very bloody and generate sympathy worldwide," he said.

POTENTIAL PROTESTERS STAY OFF STREETS AT NIGHT

The Islamic republic emerged from a 1979 revolution backed by millions of Iranians. But decades of rule marked by corruption, repression and mismanagement have thinned that support, alienating many ordinary people.

While there has been little sign so far of anti-government protests that erupted in January and abated after a deadly crackdown, the establishment has adopted harsh measures, such as arrests, executions and large-scale deployment of security forces, to prevent any sparks of dissent.

Rights groups have warned about "rushed executions" during wartime after Iran hanged at least seven political prisoners during the war.

"Many potential protesters are frightened by the continuing presence of armed men and violent crowds in the streets and largely stay at home once darkness falls," Ghaemi said.


'Metals of the Future': Copper and Silver Flow Beneath Poland's Surface

Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
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'Metals of the Future': Copper and Silver Flow Beneath Poland's Surface

Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP

Thousands of meters beneath the ground, amid suffocating heat, lies one of the keys to Poland's rumbling mining sector -- and the world economy.

Whitish ore, rich in copper and silver, is extracted from the country's depths and exported around the world to fuel technological and energy transitions.

"These are the metals of the future," Ariel Wojciuszkiewicz, a geologist at the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in the west of the country, tells AFP, noting that copper and silver are "indispensable for electronic equipment, electric cars, and renewable energy installations".

Driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, renewable energies, and global defense needs, demand for these metals is expected to keep increasing in the future, with copper even being referred to as "red gold" and a "barometer" for world economic development.

Poland, responsible for as much as half of Europe's supply, is one of the industry's key players.

Equipped with a helmet and an emergency breathing device, Wojciuszkiewicz leads AFP journalists through the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine -- one of three sites operated by KGHM, the Polish metals giant, which also owns local smelters and companies in the Americas.

The 24-hour operation runs at a constant roar as machines grind rock at deafening volumes, its tunnels stretching for hundreds of kilometers beneath Poland's surface.

The world's second-largest silver producer, the KGHM group also supplies between 40 percent and 50 percent of the copper produced in Europe.

Last year, it ranked eighth worldwide in terms of copper extraction volume, behind global giants such as BHP Group, Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto, according to industry statistics.

Global copper demand, already high, is expected to climb by over 40 percent by 2040, according to a 2025 UN Report.

To meet this demand, "it might take 80 new mines and 250 billion dollars in investments by 2030," the organization estimates.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), however, predicts that supply will lag 30 percent behind demand by as early as 2035.

- 1,200 degrees Celsius -

Dependence on copper is growing exponentially across the world economy's most innovative sectors.

"We don't realize how much we are surrounded by copper on all sides," Piotr Krzyzewski, KGHM vice president in charge of finance, explains to AFP.

"An electric car contains 80 kg of copper, compared with 20 kg in a conventional one," he notes, while "a wind turbine contains between four and ten tons of copper per megawatt."

Farther away, at the Glogow smelter, two workers in protective suits, armed with long lances, open huge furnaces where the ore is melted.

They work diligently as sparks fly from metal heated to 1,200C.

Several processing stages later, 99.99 percent pure copper plates, each weighing more than a hundred kilos, are shipped all over the world.

Last year, the KGHM group as a whole generated more than 36 billion zlotys ($9.7 billion) in revenue. Copper production reached 710,000 tons and silver production 1,347 tons, according to the group's annual report, published at the end of March.

No less than half of the silver is used in industry, mainly for electronics, solar panels, and medical applications. The rest goes to jewelery or serves as a safety net and financial asset.

But it is copper, now an irreplaceable metal for the economy, that has become the object of global strategic contention.

"Copper is on the strategic list of critical metals in Europe, the United States, and China," Krzyzewski tells AFP.

The metal's impact on geopolitics is already being noted in real time.

In July, US President Donald Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on copper, eventually limiting the measure to products made with the metal.

To justify his decision, he invoked the need to "defend national security".

"Copper is the second most used material by the Department of Defense!" he said.

- Record prices -

In 2025, copper prices jumped 41.7 percent, before hitting a record high of $14,527.50 a ton in January of this year.

Even in the face of the war in the Middle East and the slowdown of the global economy, the price remains high at about 12,000 dollars per ton.

In this uncertain context, Poland's subsoil appears to be a major asset for the energy sovereignty of the Old Continent.

"It's no longer about the security of our country alone, but the security of all of Europe," Krzyzewski says, adding that KGHM's resources "are still estimated to last for at least 40 years," not counting new exploration and concessions.

But mining consumes enormous amounts of water, making it subject to the effects of global warming and drought.


Trump’s Anger Over Iran Thrusts NATO into Fresh Crisis

A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
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Trump’s Anger Over Iran Thrusts NATO into Fresh Crisis

A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)

The NATO alliance has in recent years survived existential challenges - ranging from the war in Ukraine to multiple bouts of pressure and insults from US President Donald Trump, who has questioned its core mission and threatened to seize Greenland.

But it is the US-Israeli war with Iran, thousands of miles from Europe, that has nearly broken the 76-year-old bloc and threatens to leave it in its weakest state since its creation, say analysts and diplomats.

Trump, enraged that European countries have declined to send their navies to open up the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping following the start of the air war on Feb 28, has declared he is considering withdrawing from the alliance.

"Wouldn't you if you were me?" Trump asked Reuters in a Wednesday interview.

In a speech on Wednesday night, Trump criticized US allies but stopped short of condemning NATO, as many experts thought he might.

But combined with other barbs aimed at Europeans in recent weeks, Trump's comments have provoked unprecedented concern that the US will not come to the aid of European allies should they be attacked, whether or not Washington formally walks away.

The result, say analysts and diplomats, is that the alliance created in the Cold War that has long served as the basic fabric of European security is fraying and the mutual defense agreement at its core is no longer taken as a given.

"This is the worst place (NATO) has been since it was founded," said Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who now leads the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"It's really hard to ‌think of anything that ‌even comes close."

That reality is sinking in for Europeans, who have counted on NATO as a bulwark against an increasingly assertive Russia.

As recently ‌as February, ⁠NATO Secretary-General Mark ⁠Rutte had dismissed the idea of Europe defending itself without the US as a "silly thought." Now, many officials and diplomats consider it the default expectation.

"NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO without the Americans," said General Francois Lecointre, who served as France's armed forces chief from 2017 to 2021.

"Whether it should even continue to be called NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization - is a valid question."

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear, and as the President emphasized, ‘the United States will remember.’”

A NATO representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT

NATO has been challenged before, not least during Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, when he also considered withdrawing from the alliance.

But while many European officials until recently believed that Trump could be kept on board with pomp and flattery, fewer now hold that belief, according to conversations with dozens of former and current US and European officials.

Trump and his officials have expressed frustration over what they see as NATO's unwillingness to help the United ⁠States in a time of need, including by not directly assisting with the Strait of Hormuz and by restricting US use of some airfields and ‌airspace. US officials have declared NATO cannot be a "one-way street".

European officials counter that they have not received US requests for specific ‌assets for a mission to open the strait and complain that Washington has been inconsistent about whether such a mission would operate during or after the war.

"It's a terrible situation for NATO to be in," said ‌Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who is now a senior fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank.

"It is a blow to the allies who, since Trump returned to ‌the White House, have worked hard to show that they are willing and able to take more responsibility (for their own defense)."

Trump's latest comments follow other signs of an increasingly unsteady alliance.

Those include his stepped-up threats in January to wrest Greenland away from Denmark and recent moves by the US that Europeans see as particularly accommodating toward Russia, which NATO defines as its principal security threat.

The administration has remained essentially mum amid reports that Moscow has provided targeting data for Iran to attack US assets in the Middle East and has lifted sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to ease global energy prices that have spiked during the war.

At a meeting of G7 foreign ministers ‌near Paris last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kaja Kallas, the foreign policy chief of the European Union, had a tense exchange, according to five people familiar with the matter, underlining the increasingly fraught transatlantic relationship.

Kallas asked when US patience with Russian President Vladimir ⁠Putin would run out over Ukraine peace negotiations, prompting Rubio ⁠to respond with irritation that the US was trying to end the war while also providing support to Ukraine, but the EU was welcome to mediate if it wanted to.

NO GOING BACK

Legally, Trump may lack the authority to withdraw from NATO. Under a law passed in 2023, a US president cannot exit the alliance without the consent of two-thirds of the US Senate, a nearly impossible threshold.

But analysts say that, as commander-in-chief, Trump can decide whether the US military will defend NATO members. Declining to do so could imperil the alliance without a formal withdrawal.

To be sure, not everyone sees the current crisis as existential. One French diplomat described the president's rhetoric as a passing temper tantrum.

Trump has changed his position on NATO before.

In 2024, he said on the campaign trail that he would encourage Putin to attack NATO members that do not pay their fair share on defense. By the last annual NATO summit, in June 2025, the alliance was in his good graces, with Trump delivering a speech effusively praising European leaders as people who "love their countries."

Next week, Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, who has a strong relationship with Trump, is set to visit Washington in an effort to change Trump's view once again.

Analysts say European nations have good reason to keep the US engaged in NATO despite doubts over whether Trump would come to their defense. Among other reasons, the US military provides a range of capabilities NATO can't easily replace, such as satellite intelligence.

Even if Trump and the Europeans find a way to stay together in NATO, diplomats, analysts and officials say, the transatlantic alliance that has been central to the global order since World War Two may never be the same.

"I do think we're turning the page of 80 years of working together," said Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO under Democratic President Joe Biden.

"I don't think it means the end of the transatlantic relationship, but we're on the cusp of something that's going to have a different look and feel to it."