Paris will host a four party meeting on Thursday bringing together representatives of France, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Lebanon, amid fears that an Israeli escalation could upend a ceasefire agreement in place for more than a year.
French officials say Paris senses an imminent threat facing Lebanon in light of repeated and public Israeli threats to resume the war.
France is also concerned about uncertainty surrounding the US position on Israel’s intentions, with a prevailing French view that President Donald Trump’s administration is not inclined to restrain Israel.
Israel accuses the Lebanese army of failing to carry out commitments made by the government under the first phase of a plan to disarm Hezbollah in the area south of the Litani River.
Caught between Israeli pressure on one side and Hezbollah’s refusal to hand over its weapons on the other, Paris has been searching for a way out and for a clear, visible means of protecting Lebanon.
French officials want to demonstrate that the Lebanese army, contrary to prevailing claims, is doing what is required of it regarding Hezbollah’s weapons.
A new mechanism to track disarmament
Against this backdrop, France has put forward a proposal to establish a new “mechanism” to clearly document the actions taken by the Lebanese army, based on tangible and verifiable evidence.
Paris has also suggested that elements of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, accompany army units during inspection and seizure operations, document them and make the results public. The aim is to provide concrete proof of the army’s seriousness and of the outcomes achieved.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot summed up the proposal by saying France is “working on a second mechanism to monitor the disarmament of Hezbollah.”
A large scale tour organized by the army leadership in the south on Dec. 15, led by army commander General Rodolphe Haykal and attended by several ambassadors and military attachés, along with an earlier visit by representatives of UN Security Council member states and a separate tour for Lebanese and international media, were all part of efforts to show the government’s and the army’s commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and to rebut claims of government foot dragging and military shortcomings.
In recent weeks, Paris has stepped up its engagement on the Lebanese file. Thursday’s meeting caps a diplomatic push that has included, in less than a month, two visits by Anne Claire Legendre, President Emmanuel Macron’s adviser for Middle East and Arab affairs, and Jean-Yves Le Drian, a former foreign minister and Macron’s personal envoy to Lebanon.
As part of this effort, Legendre has made regional visits, most notably to Saudi Arabia.
Macron himself has held a series of key calls focused on two tracks: a conference expected in the coming weeks to support the Lebanese army and security forces, and a separate conference on economic support and reconstruction.
No dates have yet been set for either event.
Importance of Haykal’s participation
Well informed sources in Paris say Thursday’s meeting will focus on three main priorities.
The first is reviewing the work of the “mechanism” tasked with monitoring the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, and considering how to enhance it through the new mechanism outlined by Barrot.
Another development concerns the mechanism’s expanded membership, which now includes a Lebanese diplomat, former ambassador Simon Karam, and an Israeli representative, Yuri Resnik, director of foreign policy at Israel’s National Security Council.
Israel and Washington are pressing to broaden the scope of discussions to include economic and political issues, a move that has raised Lebanese concerns and drawn opposition from Hezbollah.
US envoy for Lebanon Morgan Ortagus and Le Drian, both attending the Paris meeting, are expected to travel to Lebanon afterward to take part in a meeting of the mechanism.
That adds to the importance of the five party committee, which has failed, more than a year after its creation, to halt near daily Israeli operations.
The US ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, will also attend Thursday’s meeting, his first such gathering since formally taking up his post.
Curbing Israeli escalation in Lebanon is the second priority of the meeting, which Haykal will attend alongside a series of engagements at the foreign ministry, defense ministry and presidential palace.
Haykal’s participation is seen as especially significant, as it will give him the opportunity to present a comprehensive account of the difficulties facing army units in carrying out their missions, foremost among them Israel’s refusal to withdraw from five additional positions it still holds on Lebanese territory.
The Lebanese army commander is also expected to outline the achievements of his forces over the past four months south of the Litani River, as well as his plan for other parts of Lebanon, aimed at restricting weapons to the hands of the Lebanese state.
Attention will also focus on Ortagus’s presentation on US plans for Lebanon, including efforts to push Lebanon toward negotiations with Israel on political and economic issues, as well as the timelines Washington is setting for Lebanon to complete the process of placing weapons exclusively under state control.
The long awaited army support conference
The central theme of Thursday’s Paris meeting, however, is expected to be support for the Lebanese army and security forces as an essential preparatory step that cannot be bypassed ahead of the long promised conference to back the army.
Two key questions remain unanswered: where the conference will be held, whether in Paris or another capital, and when it will take place. It had previously been expected before the end of the year, but that now appears unlikely.
Paris does not hide its concern that confidence in Lebanon has been badly damaged in the past, not only among potential donors in the Gulf but also elsewhere.
As a result, external parties are increasingly insisting on evaluating results and are linking military and economic assistance to concrete outcomes, whether on the security front or in economic reforms.
Another issue that could make its way onto the Paris agenda is the Lebanese Syrian border, which has seen sporadic tensions. Paris believes the border needs to be demarcated to prevent it from being used by Hezbollah as an additional justification for retaining its weapons.
France says it is ready to help both Lebanon and Syria, but stresses the need to rebuild trust between the two. Lebanon wants assurances that Syria will not again become a party that routinely violates its sovereignty, while Damascus fears Hezbollah could play a destabilizing role inside Syria.
