Four years into this conflict, Sudan is now at a critical moment. Either state institutions continue to erode, or the path to recovery accelerates. With time, war ceases to merely destroy infrastructure and begins to reshape society and the economy, imposing ever greater challenges with every year that goes by.
Recent estimates made by a joint study of the United Nations Development Programme and the Institute for Security Studies, released this week, suggest that the war has set Sudan’s economy back more than thirty years. Poverty rates are surging: around seven million people have fallen into extreme poverty, and income levels have declined to 1990s levels. Even if the war ends this year, recovery will be slow. If it continues until 2030, over 60 percent of the population could be in extreme poverty.
These figures are not just economic indicators. They reflect a cruel lived experience: families torn apart, children out of school, livelihoods completely destroyed, and a war that has produced a mass displacement crisis.
Nonetheless, a window of hope remains.
On the security front, Sudan has moved past the most severe threats it had faced at the start of the war. The army and its allies have managed to bring things under control, and a degree of stability has returned to several states. Recent reports also indicate that around four million displaced people and refugees have returned to their homes- an important step but one that brings enormous challenges.
For return programs to succeed, basic services must be restored more quickly, security must be solidified, and a minimal level of stability must be ensured for the state to function. Security is not a slogan; it is an existential need. There can be no investment without security, no education without stability, and no sustainable return of the displaced without genuine safety guarantees.
Force cannot bring this security, only the rule of law can. Ensuring security means ensuring that citizens are confident that their lives and property are protected, and that only the state maintains arms.
Security alone is not enough. Economic recovery is also required: restarting production, particularly in vital sectors such as agriculture, mining, and services. Sudan is home to vast resources, but the war has disrupted supply chains, destabilized markets, and undermined its national currency. Carefully calibrated state intervention is needed to gradually restore confidence by supporting farmers with inputs, securing transport routes, and stabilizing the financial system.
At the heart of this landscape stand the Sudanese people. More exhausted than ever, they remain the key to any future recovery. Education is a strategic priority, and it must be treated as such. We risk losing an entire generation, and this is more dangerous than any material loss.
Reopening schools, training teachers, and updating curricula- integrating practical skills and coexistence- are all necessary requisites for rebuilding a society capable of overcoming the repercussions of this war.
Infrastructure is the backbone of any real recovery. Roads, electricity, water, and communications are not merely services. They are the tools needed to restore normalcy and allow people to return to their homes. Reconstruction must be deliberate and targeted; the process cannot be arbitrary nor easy to cheat. Every infrastructure project should be viewed as a long-term investment in stability, not a temporary fix.
The most pressing question remains: what will all of this cost?
The honest answer is that the sum is enormous, running into tens of billions of dollars. The true cost, however, cannot be reduced to figures; it is the missed opportunities that have accumulated over time. Every day without a clear recovery plan adds to the losses that will be difficult to recover. Funding can come from a mix of domestic resources, regional support, and international aid. However, it requires a transparent vision and effective governance. The world does not finance chaos; it only supports viable projects.
The pillar of Sudan’s recovery- to the country returning to the state it had been in before or becoming something better- can be summed up in a delicate equation: sustainable security, a productive economy, effective education, and social justice. These objectives are not in competition; they form interconnected system.
Perhaps most important of all is political will. Recovery cannot be imposed from abroad, nor can it be achieved by isolated decisions that are detached from reality. What is needed is a new social contract that redefines the relationship between the state and its citizens and places Sudan’s interests above those of any group. This may sound idealistic but it is a concrete requisite for beginning the journey out of this tunnel.
Sudan has a test. Either this phase becomes a launching pad for reconstruction or the country’s attrition continues. The road is long, and the costs will be immense, but it is not impossible. Societies that have endured war are capable of rising again, if they have wise leadership, clear vision, and the political will.
The real question is not what this year holds, but what the Sudanese choose to make of it.
