In his May 9 piece, Prince Turki al-Faisal presented a comprehensive overview of how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman succeeded in repositioning the Kingdom. His read on the Kingdom’s approach opens many doors to reflecting Saudi Arabia’s strategy for managing the current crisis.
Against the backdrop of a tense regional landscape, its wisdom has been manifested in avoiding the furnace of the war and preventing escalation, taking its decisions on the basis of an accurate strategic read of the situation and an understanding that involvement in such conflicts would lead to an endless spiral of war that would take the region captive to and undercut projects for development and prosperity.
This Saudi position did not emerge from a vacuum. It is grounded in state rationality that rises above the voices of demagogues. In times of crisis, there is always political bravado that falls into one of two categories: the first advocates war, seeking to fuel the flames from a safe distance, far from the front lines. The second is utterly incapable of engaging in any confrontation at all. It is truly regrettable, and politically pitiful, to see some who criticize the Kingdom’s sovereign position in attempts to export their structural powerlessness by demanding that major powers become involved.
The decision not to engage in armed conflict did not stem from weakness or hesitation but from a position of central strength. It was a sovereign decision grounded in an assessment of complex geopolitical realities and a calculus of gains and losses for the country’s supreme interests- not an option imposed by outside powers. In other words, the Kingdom did not refrain from military escalation because it is incapable of inflicting pain on those behind the aggression against it, but because momentary sentiment does not determine its strategic compass, allowing it to avoid being lured into the traps of futile conflicts.
Modern history has repeatedly affirmed, and continues to affirm, the Kingdom’s status as a center of gravity standing above belligerents. In Israel, decision-makers understand that normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia represents the “grand prize” they have pursued through various means. However, they certainly will not attain it by saber-rattling and the fueling of regional wars.
On the other hand, Iran’s diplomatic engagement with Riyadh reflects distinctive respect that no one can deny, acutely aware that what it once sought to achieve through its previous interventions and operations cannot be attained through its conduct and behavior in the current war.
In sum, Saudi Arabia is a power with real regional weight. This deeply rooted power has no need for theaters of conflict to flex its muscle or prove its existence, nor is it inclined to squander its resources to satisfy grandstanders or compensate for the strategic deficiencies of others. The Saudi leadership is managing the scene with the rationality of a state that places the national interest above all else, leaving those who live on the margins to drown in their illusions and weak theories.
