Since the outbreak of its war on Gaza, Israel has killed about 139 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. Israel's targeting of Hezbollah members is not new; they have regularly come under fire on Syrian territory.
Now, things are changing, especially after the Israeli war on Gaza. Israel is increasing the number of attacks and hitting higher-value targets, taking out prominent figures like the commander of the Al-Radwan Force.
The locations of the assassinations are also noteworthy, and none more so than that of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, who was hit in the middle of the southern suburbs in an operation that Israel has penetrated Hezbollah. I am almost certain that the party's leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, heard those explosions go off.
Israel’s escalating assassinations of Hezbollah members coincide with government statements about changing the rules of war in Gaza and moving to another phase that includes assassinations. It seems that this phase does not only apply to Gaza and Hamas but also to Israel’s approach to dealing with Hezbollah.
All that raises a set of questions. Is Israel pursuing assassinations to avoid a war with the party, or is it a prelude to a new war? How many of these commanders can Hezbollah afford to lose, to say nothing about keeping face while Israel demonstrates that it has deeply penetrated the party?
This penetration is real and significant, and it extends to the party's most sensitive sites, such as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Israel has breached the party's security system and identified prominent figures, their responsibilities, and their movements precisely. This has not happened to Hamas or Al-Qassam in Gaza, at least not yet.
Accordingly, how much can Hezbollah endure, especially after Hassan Nasrallah has reiterated his famous phrase after each assassination: it "will not go unpunished," and Hezbollah maintains the right to respond. Moreover, three months ago, the Iranian foreign minister said that "the fingers of the resistance are on the trigger."
Hassan Nasrallah says that the actions of the party are intended to relieve pressure on Gaza. Meanwhile, the assassinations of Hezbollah members in Lebanon are relieving pressure on Netanyahu, who is trying to extend his political life. Netanyahu has no plan or project to achieve this except prolonging and expanding the war.
Thus, we are now on the “brink of the abyss.” The brinkmanship of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hassan Nasrallah is motivated by completely different assessments and political aspirations.
Netanyahu wants to extend his political life, while Hassan Nasrallah is receiving blows without real support, in an astonishingly penetrated camp. Nasrallah’s real battle is protecting Iran's strategic interests in the region, not the politically and economically faltering country it operates from, Lebanon.
And so, the real danger now in this "brinkmanship" could precipitate a broad war on Lebanon. This is a real and predictable prospect. However, no one knows how it would end or its real cost for the region. As for Netanyahu and Nasrallah, the cost means the end of an era of evil, and perhaps the beginning of another that is worse.
