Emile Ameen

Crocus… A World on the Brink of DEFCON 

Did someone send a message sealed with blood to the tzar who had just won a fifth term and 87 percent of the vote?

It seems so. What is more clear is that the elected president of Russia is thought to be reinforcing the idea of a multipolar world order and putting the notion of a new world order led by the United States behind us, especially in light of his alliance with China and his efforts to forge a BRICS axis, then BRICS Plus.

The world will certainly not be the same after the Crocus City Hall incident, at least for the Russian Federation, which ended the "military operation" phase of the conflict in Ukraine and initiated the "state of war" stage.

The tzar was shocked by the atrocious crime committed against civilians, but as a former KGB man, he understood the repercussions of the incident that go beyond the fire, bitterness, and destruction. It sends a clear message: "Russia will not enjoy peace so long as you are in power, and the time has come to adapt to the new landscape. Distraction and engagement through terrorism can be alternatives to direct warfare."

Is Russia genuinely in a quagmire? And if so, what is the way out?

The attack affirmed that the Russians are facing an effort to force them to change course and redraw their foreign policy through a kind of terrorism and hybrid warfare. It knows that a "testing time" is about to begin.

Something about the Crocus attack robbed the man in the Kremlin of his joy. Everyone in Russia has noticed this... Fear and dread are in the air, bringing back memories of an earlier period when the war with Chechnya spread horror in Russia, haunting Russians’ thoughts and dreams.

Putin makes statements that only the learned understand... "No one and nothing can sow seeds of discord among our people."

Words have meaning. The man has always seen the disintegration and forced implosion of Russia, in the tragic manner it occurred three decades ago, as the "mortal sin" of the latter half of the 20th century.

The architect of Russia's resurgence is absolutely certain that there are people who seek to do the same thing to the Russian Federation, which arose like a phoenix from the ashes.

It will be a long time before we know the details of the recent terrorist incident or who was behind it. However, these people overlooked a crucial fact: the fires ignited walls less than they did the hearts of the Slavic people, who were reminded of what the Nazis had done in Stalingrad and the atrocities that the Führer's generals committed there.

It is thus entirely natural for the majority of Russians, elites and common people, officials, and populists, to endorse the slogan raised by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia: "Death for death". This seems to be the formula in Moscow, although the question of "How, and by what means?" remains.

It is war. It can cause heartache, but it also creates a lot of space for revenge and retribution. We could soon see the Russians called the "masters of the scene," so to speak, whether by conventional or unconventional means.

What Russia has experienced in the past few days is very interesting. After the music hall was burned, advanced Ukrainian missiles rained down on Muscovites, notably Shadow-Storm missiles, in addition to the painful strikes on some military sites in Crimea.

It is no longer a secret that domestic terrorism and bombardment could weaken the morale of the Russian people, putting their leader, who has won an electoral majority, in an enviable position. He has no choice but to face the truth.

Will it be Alexander Dugin, Putin's favorite philosopher, who outlines the next phase?

After the Crocus City Hall explosion, Dugin tweeted, saying: "We must face the truth, the end of the world is not distant. It might still be possible to avoid the worst, but we are already close to the worst."

The Russian elite, whom Dugin represents, now sense that Western betrayal has reached the point of attempting a military invasion of Russia. Nothing attests to this more clearly than the fact that French soldiers - as al-Jabarti says - are at the borders of Ukraine, or the Taurus missile strike on the Crimea bridge.

Dugin demands and the world will suffer if the tzar listens to him, the liberation of Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, Chernihiv, and Sumy, without resorting to nuclear weapons or igniting a large-scale world war, if that can be avoided... But what if it cannot be avoided?

Dugin also claims that the Silovik group around Putin now favors mobilizing half a million or one million additional soldiers, as well as putting all of Russia's capacities, economic, political, industrial, scientific, cultural, and educational capacities behind the effort. That is, they want to fully militarize Russia’s state and society in order to write the final pages of the story in Ukraine and those behind it.

NATO certainly will not accept a decisive Russian victory, meaning a war of wills that is bound to instigate a post-traditional clash.

Putin had previously lauded his country's nuclear arsenal earlier this month and threatened to use it if Russia’s sovereignty is threatened.

In Washington, there is talk that preparations had begun in late 2022 for the prospect of Putin using a tactical nuclear deterrent! Is it time to declare DEFCON and the start of a global nuclear confrontation?