Where will Benjamin Netanyahu take Israel? Where will he take the Middle East and United States? His rivals in Israel are warning that he is not concerned with a ceasefire unless it is preceded by a victory. They are warning that he is costing Israel too many losses. His opponents have failed to topple him and the US is unable to rein him in and oust him.
Netanyahu is a man of records. He is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. He holds the record in killing the largest number of Palestinians. The current Israeli war machine has killed over 40,000 people in Gaza. It has killed 280 military commanders in Hamas, the “Islamic Jihad”, Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.
His jets have struck Iran, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. His government appears on the brink of collapse and yet, it doesn’t. His enemies try to find an alternative to him and yet, they fail. He has imposed himself and his policies inside Israel and has also imposed it on his allies abroad. He has led Israel in the longest war in its history and has created the impression that the Israelis – in spite of their differences – have decided to pay the price of the current showdown.
He has ignored the advice of allies and warnings of enemies. He is aware that Iran now stands at his country’s borders, but he is banking on turning the confrontation into the “final war”. He holds the record in violating all “red lines”, starting from the confrontation with Iran to defying the master of the White House in his own backyard. He has burdened his allies and enemies alike.
Diplomats recalled how back on the sidelines of the 2011 G20 summit, then French President Nicolas Sarkozy told his American counterpart Barack Obama: “I cannot bear Netanyahu, he's a liar,” to which Obama replied: “You are sick of him, but I have to work with him every day.”
Later that year, Netanyahu ordered his chief of staff to come up with a plan to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the chief of staff and his security commanders claimed that they didn’t have the necessary means to do so. It was said at the time that one of the commanders leaked the information to Washington so that the PM’s plan could be scuttled. Netanyahu is worrisome to Israel and beyond and it’s not a stretch to say that he is the most dangerous prime minister to ever assume that post in Israel.
None of his predecessors have had such charges levelled against them. In wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, he was accused of intelligence failure that led to the killing of over a thousand civilians and military personnel, shaking Israel’s image and the security of its settlements and settlers to the core.
He was later accused of obstructing negotiations to reach a prisoner exchange. Politicians charged that his only goal is to remain in power even if that meant endless bloodshed. He was also accused of seeking to expand the conflict and spark a destructive regional war. Others blamed him for Israel’s international isolation because he is leading the most extreme government in the country’s history.
They said that he has embarrassed Israel’s friends and stoked the wave of hatred that flooded capitals and university campuses. They believe that his management of the war has cost Israel relations that he himself had successfully forged. That is to say nothing about the accusations of corruption, bribery and receiving illicit gifts levelled against him.
Netanyahu is aware that officials in the Biden administration view him as a heavy burden on their country. Months ago, when the death toll in Gaza was close to 30,000, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tried to persuade him to agree to a ceasefire. He told him that Hamas’ abilities have been diminished and that it no longer poses a threat to Israel the way it did before October 7. But Netanyahu, who feigned interest, declared that Israel needed a victory that would “finish” Hamas.
Netanyahu didn’t say that he doesn’t want negotiations to release the hostages, but he went about his usual approach. He sent delegations to negotiations, but he sabotaged its mission, either by reducing its privileges or by demanding difficult conditions. Instead of rushing to demand a ceasefire, he decided to fan the flames of war in the capitals that back Hamas. He assassinated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s most senior military official, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself.
Netanyahu has acted as though he is confident that America has no choice but to stand by Israel and defend it. He has taken the region to the brink of a wide-scale confrontation. Some have accused him of seeking to lure Iran to a direct confrontation that America cannot stand idly by and watch unfold. The developments have proven that Netanyahu is aware of the depth of American-Israeli relations despite the criticism he has had to deal with.
Hezbollah’s retaliation to Shukr’s assassination showed that it does not want to become involved in an all-out war with Israel that enjoys unprecedented American military support. Iran, which is still threatening to retaliate to Haniyeh’s assassination, has sent several signals that it wants to avoid a wide-scale regional conflict.
On the other hand, Netanyahu is trying to pursue the “final war”, meaning he wants to set an example and deter anyone else from ever attacking Israel the way Yehya al-Sinwar did on October 7. He wants Israel’s deterrence power, not negotiations, to impose a ceasefire.
Netanyahu is aware that this is a multifront war. He knows that before his killing, General Qassem Soleimani succeeded in weaving his threads in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. He knows that imposing a long-term ceasefire demands that he impose his vision of victory.
The most dangerous thing that can happen is for Netanyahu to feign flexibility in Gaza in order to wage a large-scale war with Hezbollah and replicate the devastation in Gaza in Beirut. Yes, America opposes such a war, but experience has shown that it is incapable of deterring or dissuading the man. Experience has shown that he can drag it along with him and that it is incapable of abandoning Israel when it is embroiled in war.
