The third Lebanon War is close to becoming totally unrestrained, and the country is exposed. Israel launched a devastating incursion by air last Saturday that has turned into genocide since Monday. Massacres have been perpetrated in the south and the Bekaa Valley, resulting in a heavy toll: over 600 people have died and more than 2,000 have been injured. Hospitals have shut down, and broad panic has led to the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands humiliated by belligerent arrogance!
The rapidly developing situation threatens grim outcomes. It seems that Lebanon is on course to become another Gaza, with Zionist savagery creating several small Gazas in border towns that have been turned to ashes! This dangerous trajectory began the moment Israel’s security cabinet made the "safe return of northern residents to their homes" an official objective of the war. Israel has been launching lethal strikes since the 17th of September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had promised to change the "balance of power in the north” and to “eliminate senior officials and remove the missile threat." Meanwhile, the Pentagon has said that "a wider regional conflict is very likely."
From the very moment the terrifying spiral began, Hezbollah, which dragged the country into this destructive war, should have abandoned its intransigence by reassessing its internal issues and its relationship with other Lebanese actors. One minute of the day of the "deadly call" made Lebanon seem weaker than a spiderweb. Without firing a single bullet, Israel neutralized around 4,000 people, mostly members of the militia, field commanders, and elite fighters. After the walkie-talkies were blown up, the national tragedy as the tally of families affected rose to 6,000.
Meanwhile, Hassan Nasrallah ignored the implications of the Israeli government incorporating the northern front into its war objectives, raising the stakes after having rejected every viable political initiative for a settlement. He doubled down on linking Lebanon's fate to Gaza, i.e., to Netanyahu's fate and interests, thereby providing Israel with an opportunity to launch its third war on Lebanon, which it sees as an alternative to a broader conflict, to achieve a resounding restoration of deterrence. To any serious political actor, that was obviously on the cards. Indeed, the party all but invited war, whereas the wise thing to do would be to avoid it. Israel responded with Operation Buffalo, targeting Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and the leaders of the Radwan Force, revealing dangerous shifts:
First, Hezbollah failed to address Israel’s deep intelligence and security infiltration. The assassination of three highly prominent figures in the party’s stronghold (Arouri, Shukr, and Aqil) culminated last Monday with the attack that injured Ali Karaki, one of the two living members of Hezbollah’s top brass.
Second, the empty slogans and false narratives about the rules of engagement, the achievements of Hezbohllah’s harassment and support, and a balance of deterrence have collapsed. However, it keeps trying to sell deluded notions, as well as refusing to acknowledge the gravity of these failures, leading to death and destruction across the country.
Third, the statelet’s approach to dealing with the Lebanese people and “its community” has been exposed. It mirrors the Iranian regime in its indifference to the people's hopes and concerns, treating the calamities it causes as mere collateral damage of the effort to consolidate Iran’s control. If that were not the case, its leadership, headquarters, and ammunition would not be located in densely populated residential areas.
Fourth, the claims that the statelet’s arsenal protects the country, as well as the assertion that these weapons allow for self-defense, have been debunked. It is now evident that the state, which has been weakened, hollowed out, and plagued by corruption and poverty, remains capable of restoring security and stability, as well as protecting everyone, including Hezbollah, which is now fighting for its own existence.
Amid the painful strikes acknowledged by Nasrallah, and while its “nucleus of support" and broad segments of the "party" are awaiting the support of the factions that have committed to a "unity of fronts," Tehran announced that it is ready to negotiate its nuclear program. The Iranian president presented himself as a peace advocate in New York, stressing that his country would not intervene in the Israel-Hezbollah war and implying that the role of its proxies is merely to serve as tools Tehran uses to conclude dirty deals with Washington and Tel Aviv!
Nothing should be prioritized over the need to save Lebanon and the lives of its citizens. There is still time to prevent Lebanon from becoming another Gaza, despite the world turning its back on the massacre and the plans to crush Lebanon, granting Israel cover to escalate its crimes under the pretext of reducing Hezbollah's military capabilities.
Things have reached a point where the pulling to the north of the Litani River is no longer enough. To stop the bleeding, the remnants of the country’s authorities and the political class must face their moral responsibilities and protect civilian lives. The government must stop behaving like a mere spokesperson for Hezbollah and its project. The government must send substantial military forces to the south now, thereby delivering an unequivocal message about its intention to fully implement UN Resolution 1701 and the new proposals being put forward to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and allow the state to once again make decisions of war and peace. A different policy is needed to allow Lebanon's friends to play supportive roles and lay the foundations for ending the war. That could potentially allow Hezbollah to find a way back down.
TT
To Prevent Lebanon from Becoming Another Gaza!
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