In the aftermath of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, it was clear that Iran was trying to save Hezbollah. However, after a series of other assassinations—both confirmed and nearly confirmed—it is evident that the situation has changed. Iran is now defending itself, not Hezbollah.
I write this before the Israeli response to the Iranian retaliation, which could happen before publication. But what is clear now is that the conflict has become “fluid,” suggesting that the situation is open to all possibilities. There are several clear indicators of this.
First: It seems that the conflict has moved beyond the idea of striking the "tentacles of the octopus" and has reached the "octopus's head" itself. Today, Iran is not merely defending Hezbollah or Hamas but is trying to protect the regime, its interests, and its leadership. Interestingly, the Americans are debating not whether to de-escalate, but whether Israel should strike Iran's nuclear facilities or its oil refineries. This debate occurred just a few days ago between President (Joe) Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Second: The Israeli escalation in Lebanon, particularly in Hezbollah's stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut, suggests a strategic intent to completely dismantle the party—its structure, organization, and leadership. The clearest evidence of this is that Hezbollah has stopped publicly mourning its dead or announcing the names of its replacement leaders.
Third: This is happening amid an unprecedented level of international support for Israel following Iran’s retaliation. This is noteworthy because Israel had not received this kind of backing since its brutal operations in Gaza after Oct. 7. The current global message is loud and clear, and it is certainly causing concern in Iran.
Thus, Iran now finds itself in a tight spot, much like Hassan Nasrallah before his assassination. He was trapped between the entanglement in Gaza and Israel’s clear intent to eliminate him, with no easy way out, leading to his eventual fate.
Today, Tehran is in a predicament. Instead of relying on the proxy forces it has nurtured for decades to be its first line of defense, Iran itself is now forced to defend its own interests and not its regional arms, particularly Hezbollah, which holds great ideological and military importance for Iran.
As explained by Iranian-American analyst Karim Sadjadpour on CNN, the Iranian regime is caught in a dilemma of either "saving face" or engaging in direct confrontation with Israel, a challenge with dangerous consequences. Sadjadpour says that this is the most difficult moment for the Iranian regime since 1979, because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s political doctrine is built on the principle of never succumbing to pressure, as yielding would only invite more pressure.
Sadjadpour adds that if the regime does not respond to Israel's strikes, it will lose face, which is harmful domestically. On the other hand, if the regime confronts Israel forcefully, it could lose its head, a profound analysis.
Thus, Iran is now in the position of defending itself, not its proxies. It has become clear that Israel is acting with a free hand and that no red lines remain, making the situation open to anything and everything.
Today, the ball is in Tehran’s court: it must choose between a dangerous confrontation or climbing down from the tree, which would be akin to drinking the "second cup of poison."
