Tariq Al-Homayed
Saudi journalist and writer, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper
TT

Iran and Trump… Dialogue or Escalation

أستمع لملخص

Some in our region are more eager to coordinate and engage in dialogue than President Trump. For example, Netanyahu says that he has spoken with the president-elect three times since November 5, adding in a statement: “We see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all aspects and the danger it poses,” referring to himself and Trump.
Well, what about this "dialogue?” It is clear that there is a group of Iranian elites, be it those dubbed the "New York Gang" (led by Mohammad Javad Zarif) in Tehran or the hardliners closer to the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, see Trump's return to the presidency as an opportunity for dialogue with him.
Yesterday, The New York Times reported that "despite a charged history" between Tehran and Trump, many former officials, analysts, and newspaper editors in Iran have publicly called on the government to engage with Trump.
The American newspaper cited an editorial that the Iranian reformist newspaper "Shargh" published on its front page: “The new, more moderate Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, must avoid past mistakes and adopt a multidimensional pragmatic policy.”
The New York Times, citing five Iranian officials who refused to be named, “many in Pezeshkian’s government” agree with this view, as “Trump likes making deals where others have failed.”
These sources add that Trump’s “dominance in the Republican Party could make any potential agreement more durable, arguing that this could provide a chance for a type of lasting deal with the United States.” So, is a dialogue that is followed by an agreement possible?
Seven months ago, a former Arab official, who still has influence in the global arena, told me: “If Trump wins, you can’t rule anything out, and remember that the man who shook hands with Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, could shake hands with the Iranian Supreme Leader.”
This analysis is understandable, given Trump’s own claims about his deal-making skills, which seem to have convinced everyone- or is being echoed for pragmatic reasons, including some US media outlets, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Accordingly, the question becomes whether Iranian dialogue with Trump is possible despite the leaks published by The Wall Street Journal last week, which indicate that Trump’s new administration will begin maximum pressure on Tehran the day he enters the White House.
Iranian officials cannot be blamed if they believe these leaks, especially given the figures that seem set to occupy positions in Trump’s new administration, including the proposed National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, as well as the return of Brian Hook, Trump’s former envoy for Iran affairs to the spotlight. So, is dialogue possible?
For Trump, yes. He brags about his ability to make a deal with any party, but can Iran? Will the Iranian Supreme Leader agree to this, especially at this stage of his life? Would the IRGC agree to it? What concessions can Iran offer? The nuclear project or Hezbollah and, by extension, its regional influence?
These are all difficult and costly options. It is hard to see the Supreme Leader conceding because it would not mean a more moderate Iran, but a metamorphosis that would cost the regime. But who knows, Tehran doesn’t have any easy options, whether it opts for change or confrontation, especially with Netanyahu ready to pounce.