It might be useful to rearrange the achievements and fears of the Syrian earthquake.
1. “Forever” is no more. Now, we have the freedom of free people, their choices, and their pursuits. The nightmare went on for 54 of Syria's 78 years of independence.
2. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Syrians are returning after having been part of one of the world’s largest waves of forced displacement, and it is difficult to count the sheer number of people who are leaving one of the most brutal and darkest prisons on earth.
3. In principle, there is an opportunity to build a future that breaks with military coups, single-party rule, an ideological army, militias, the militarization of society, and nationalist discourse- that is, everything that Syria had been built on before Hafez al-Assad and that has continued to aggravate since he took power.
4. If this process succeeds and sustains, its impact on its surroundings will be similar to that of the Soviet Union’s collapse on its surroundings. There might be no words to capture the significance of this hypothetical shift.
5. With this seismic development, Syria has regained the light that October 7 was meant to steal from it. The freedom agenda has thereby returned to the forefront in the Levant.
6. Iran and its influence have been pushed out, probably for good.
7. One of this phase’s duties will be addressing dregs of the past, from chemical weapons to ISIS, that must be cleaned out of the present. This comes at a time when war continues to shape conditions in Gaza and to a certain extent Lebanon. Nonetheless, managing to ensure stability and demilitarize society remains the most effective way to remove these dregs. As for Israel’s strikes on Syria and its expansion of the Syrian territory it occupies- even under the pretext of preempting surprises from a new and obscure situation that has emerged- they can only have the opposite effect, making it more difficult for this novel experiment to succeed, humiliating it, and reinforcing the arguments of those who oppose and want to foil it. Thus, the theory of absolute Israeli security, and the sick selfishness inherent to it that was exacerbated by October 7, has become another cause of concern.
8. Longer term, the trade in the Palestinian cause has lost its biggest tycoon. The Palestinian cause is something to be resolved, not sanctified. If the experiment succeeds, Syria would, as a respected and non-belligerent state, become more capable of helping the Palestinian people. Using political means, in a post-Netanyahu era, reclaiming its occupied land, which cannot be regained through violence, will become more likely as well.
9. Lebanon will feel more secure. The era of sending arms and incitement is over. Iran cannot reach the country anymore.
10. Iraq could resolve its issues with Iran on better terms, anchored by reassurance regarding its neighbor to the west.
11. Syria could no longer be the exception. It could establish normal ties with its Arab neighbors and the world, facilitating the pursuit of a stable and prosperous region. If both these neighbors and the world embrace Syria today, politically and economically, its chances of success would be enhanced and failure would become less likely.
12. Reconstituting Syria, after a long history of destruction, will be an extremely arduous task. Denial does not help.
13- We cannot count on the "transformations" of Ahmad al-Sharaa (al-Joulani) alone, and deep suspicions and concerns about his organization remain. However, is Sharaa merely a function that has ended after serving its purpose, and does its survival depend on the extent to which it fits into a new, stable, and pluralistic Syria, and complies with the demands of the regional and global actors it urgently needs?
In the worst-case scenario- the emergence of a theocratic tyrannical project- would influential foreign powers, and with them vigorous domestic forces, not take action and foil such an untenable project given the country’s composition- a project that would deprive its people of stability and freedoms, as well as undermining the interests of its neighbors? The fact that Syrians are weak, for reasons everyone knows, means that an excessive aversion to the involvement of foreign actors would harm the country and empower religious extremists.
Between these two extremes, the poorly chosen new prime minister is concerning, and the events unfolding in Manbij are very painful. There remains a pressing need to set up a transitional governing body overseen by the United Nations that replaces the current regime as soon as possible.
14. Syria is riddled with divisions of all kinds. However, swiftly configuring these divisions into political parties and then competitive parliamentary elections that Islamists take part in like everyone else, would do more to prevent violence than anything else. This process should be accompanied by the development of theoretical and institutional frameworks for ensuring justice through which the rights of victims are upheld and unconstrained vengeance is averted.
15. Though the significance of sectarianism should not be downplayed, the most urgent and dangerous issue today is ethnic, this is, Arab-Kurdish tensions. The paradox, here, is that Turkey's influential role, which has been beneficial on many other fronts, could be negative on this front in particular. Syrians might find themselves obliged, if they are to safeguard this experiment, to reach a new settlement: the "Syrian” (not “Syrian Arab”) Republic adopting a federal system in which no group or region feels aggrieved, afraid, or coerced, with communities and regions severing their political and partisan ties to forces beyond the country’s borders.
In any event, it is extremely natural that after decades of attempts to kill it, Syria is dealing with problems like those mentioned here. It makes sense that great hope is coupled with grave apprehension regarding the future of Syrians. Nonetheless, acknowledging problems, whatever they may be, and efforts to overcome them, has begun to replace denying these problems or kicking the can down the road in the name of false commitments to grand causes.
