As the new year begins, observers ponder the dynamics and changes influencing decision-makers around the globe to ascertain whether the world of tomorrow will be immersed in peace, or buried in wars?!
The first question is tied to global cooperation to enhance security, which has reached unprecedented lows. While conflicts have escalated, traditionally leading bodies, most notably the United Nations, have proven unable to achieve a broad global consensus or resolve them.
The two main determinants of the world that is to come attests to this state of affairs: the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, passing through Lebanon, the Syrian scene, and continuing on to Yemen, all of them affirm that the global security system has become too fragmented to maintain peace or negotiate for it.
In three weeks, the world will witness the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump for a second nonconsecutive term, and the question is: will the president help heal the world's deep wounds or deepen them?
Trump seems to embody the duality of the US. While he promises to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war in his early days, we find imperial dreams, or to be more precise, his ambitions. The man is intent on buying the Danish island of Greenland, which he sees as an American national security need. Denmark rejects the idea, and he then gets the urge to take control of the Panama Canal.
His term will likely witness some kind of military intervention in Mexico, and then we have the bigger and more dangerous issue, which had begun as a joke but could turn into a frightening reality: his vision of annexing Canada to the United States, turning it into the 51st state, as he put it.
One regional issue intertwined with global circumstances is that of Iran. The question is: "Will 2025 be the year in which the Iranian government actually develops a nuclear bomb, if it has not already obtained it?"
On the one hand, Tehran seeks to avoid provocations in times of crisis, as it is doing now. And so, it might seek to negotiate with the United States, especially before European sanctions are resumed.
Here, we find the Trumpian obstacle, as the man has been firm towards Iran, and is thus not expected to be open to negotiations that buy Tehran time.
Here a question arises about the right of regional countries to develop similar nuclear capabilities, to achieve balanced nuclear deterrence, which indicates that a nuclear route is undoubtedly justified.
From the Middle East, we turn to the Far East. Russia is becoming more turbulent by the day. Russian intelligence leaks over the past few days, suggesting Western preparations for attacks inside Russia, does not bode well for an imminent breakthrough in the crisis. It thereby makes the threat of a nuclear catastrophe a real possibility, especially if Trump's good intentions fail to end the war with Ukraine.
It is no secret that Russia today appears weaker domestically than it had been in February 2022. It is facing economic difficulties, but it has set clear limits and red lines; if crossed it could set the world on fire.
One cannot overlook China in discussions of the new year. Dealing with lower growth rates than we have been accustomed to over the past two decades, China is also seeking to focus on its military and on rising as an armed power through a huge upcoming nuclear arsenal.
In the region around China, we find several points of tension that could make the new year one of all-out war, from Taiwan to the South China Sea, to Guam; there is also the expectation of a conflict with Australia, the Western proxy.
Europe is ravaged by political chaos, as the French government coalition has collapsed, and the ruling German coalition has been brought down.
A report by the European Bank ING, said "political chaos affects growth." Europe finds itself caught between the hammer of Putin and the anvil of Trump. The world is facing an American debt crisis that could devastate the global economy, and humanity is facing up against the dictatorship of artificial intelligence and the arrival of the digital monster... What else?
